D8 ÜLKELERİNDE KÜRESELLEŞMENİN İŞSİZLİK ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PARKS-KMENTA TAHMİNCİSİ

Öz

Çalışmada ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi D8 ülkeleri için 1991-2021 döneminde statik panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada öncelikle modelde yatay kesit bağımlılık testi yapılarak yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ardından ikinci kuşak birinci grup Levin, Lin ve Chu (LLC) panel birim kök testi ile serilerin seviye değerlerinde durağan olduğu gözlenmiş, tesadüfi etkiler modeli tercih edilerek Parks Kmenta tahmincisi ile model tahmin edilmiştir. Sonrasında Dumitrescu ve Hurlin panel nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre ekonomik küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisi, politik küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi vardır. Sosyal küreselleşmenin ise işsizlik üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur. Bu doğrultuda ekonomik küreselleşme arttıkça işsizlik azalma göstermekte, politik küreselleşme arttıkça işsizlik artış göstermektedir. Kontrol değişkeni kişi başına GSYH’nın işsizliği artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan ekonomik küreselleşme ve işsizlik arasında çift yönlü, işsizlikten politik küreselleşmeye ve sosyal küreselleşmeden işsizliğe doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İşsizlik
• Ekonomik Küreselleşme
• Sosyal Küreselleşme
• Siyasal Küreselleşme.

THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN D8 COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE PARKS-KMENTA ESTIMATOR

Öz

This study examines the impact of economic, social and political globalization on unemployment for the D8 countries over the period 1991-2021 using static panel data analyses. In the study, firstly, cross-sectional dependence test was performed and it was determined that cross-sectional dependence exists in the model. Subsequently, stationarity was tested using the second-generation, first-group Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) panel unit root test, which indicated that the series were stationary at level. A random effects model was preferred, and the parameters were estimated using the Parks–Kmenta estimator. Finally, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test was applied. According to the estimation results, economic globalization has a negative and significant effect on unemployment, while political globalization has a positive and significant effect on unemployment. Social globalization has no significant effect on unemployment. Accordingly, unemployment decreases as economic globalization increases, while unemployment increases as political globalization increases. The control variable, GDP per capita, was found to increase unemployment. On the other hand, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic globalization and unemployment, and a unidirectional causal relationship from unemployment to political globalization and from social globalization to unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Unemployment
• Economic Globalization
• Social Globalization
• Political Globalization.

Kaynakça

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