İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin Büyüme Performansı

Abstract

Teorik ve ampirik literatürde ihracat hacmindeki artışların iktisadi büyüme performansını artıracağı yönünde genel bir kanaat mevcut olmasına rağmen hangi tür ihracat yapısının iktisadi büyümeyi nasıl uyaracağı konusu ideal bir inceleme konusu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Son dönem dış ticaret teorileri, ihracat çeşitliliğinin olası fiyat ve pazar dalgalanmalarına karşı bir sigorta mekanizması oluşturarak ihracat gelirlerinde istikrarın sağlanmasında ve dolayısıyla makroekonomik dalgalanmaların azaltılmasında önemli bir rol üstlendiğini öne sürmektedir. Bu kapsamda mevcut çalışmada ihracatta ürün çeşitliliğinin hesaplanmasına yönelik olarak geliştirilen üç farklı indeks (Herfindahl-Hirschman, Gini-Hirschman ve Theil Entropy indeksleri) kullanılarak 2002q1-2019q4 döneminde Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitliliğinin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Spesifik olarak iktisadi büyüme, sabit sermaye oluşumu, iş gücü ve ihracat çeşitliliği arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler, gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi (bounds test) yaklaşımına dayanan eşbütünleşme (cointegration) analizi aracılığıyla tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, incelenen dönem itibarıyla Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitliliğinin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisini teyit etmektedir.

Keywords

• İhracat Çeşitliliği
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• HHI
• Gini İndeksi
• Theil İndeksi

Export Product Diversification and Growth Performance of Turkey

Abstract

Although there is a general opinion in the theoretical and empirical literature that increases in export volume will increase economic growth performance, the issue of which type of export structure will stimulate economic growth appears to be an ideal subject of examination. The recent foreign trade theories assert that export diversification may play an important role in ensuring the stability of export revenues and thereby reducing macroeconomic fluctuations by constituting an insurance mechanism against possible price and market fluctuations. In this context, in this study, we examine the effect of export diversification on economic growth in Turkey over the period 2002q1-2019q4 by employing three different indices developed for the calculation of the export product diversification (Herfindahl-Hirschman, Gini-Hirschman and Theil Entropy indexes). Specifically, we analyze the dynamic relationships between economic growth, fixed capital formation, labor force and export diversification through the cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The empirical evidence confirms the positive effect of export product diversification.

Keywords

• Export Diversification
• Growth
• HHI
• Gini Index
• Theil Index

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