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Siyasi İstikrarsizlik ve Ekonomik Performans: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2011, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 73 - 80, 01.02.2011

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Johansen (1988) eşbütünleşme ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (HDM) testlerini kullanarak 1987-2007 yılları arasıda Türkiye’de siyasi istikrarsızlık ve gayri safi yurt içi hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Eşbütünleşme analizi, siyasi istikrarsızlık ve gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla (GSYİH) arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak, Hata Düzeltme Modeli (HDM) gayri safi yurt içi hâsıladan siyasi istikrarsızlığa doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermektedir

References

  • Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1995) “Income Distribution, Political Stability and Investment”, European Economic Review, 40:1203-1220.
  • Alesina, A. ve Rodrik, D., (1994) “Distributive Politics and Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (2): 465-490.
  • Alesina, A. ve Tabellini, G. (1990) “A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt”, Review of Economic Studies, (57): 403-414.
  • Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. ve Swagel, P. (1996) “Political Stability and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2): 189-211.
  • Asteriou, D., ve Price, S. (2001) “Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48 (4): 383-399.
  • Barro, R. (1997) The Determinants of Economic Growth; A Cross Country Empirical Study, Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2): 407- 444.
  • Barro, R. J. ve Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995) “Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth,” NBER Working Paper, No. 5151.
  • Benabou, R. (1996) “Inequality and Growth”, NBER Working Paper, 5658.
  • Benhabib, J. ve Rustichini, A. (1996) “Social Conflict and Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1 (1): 125-142.
  • Berthélemy, J., Kauffmann, C., Renard, L. ve Wegner, L. (2000) “Political Instability, Political Regimes and Economic Performance in African Countries”, Draft Paper for African Economic Outlook, Paris.
  • Bienen, H. S., Londregan, J. ve Van de Walle, N. (1993) “Ethnicity, Leadership Succession, and Economic Development in Africa.” Institute for Policy Reform, Washington, D.C.
  • Chen, B. ve Feng, Y. (1996) “Some Political Determinants of Economic Growth: Theory and Empirical Implication”, European Journal of Political Economy, 12: 607-27.
  • Collier, P. (1999) “On the Economic Consequences of Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 51: 163-83.
  • Darby, J., Chol-Won, L., ve Muscatelli, A. V. (2004) “Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth,” European Journal of Political Economy, 20(1):153-179.
  • De Haan, J. ve Siermann, C.L.J. (1995) “New Evidence on the Relationship Between Democracy and Economics Growth”, Public Choice, 86: 175-98.
  • Devereux, M. B. ve Wen, J. (1997) “Political Instability, Capital Taxation and Growth”, European Economic Review, 42: 1635- 1651.
  • Easterly, W. ve Levine, R. (1997) “Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4): 1203-1250.
  • Eaton, J. ve Kortum, S. S. (1995) “Trade in Ideas: Patenting and Productivity in the OECD”, NBER Working Papers, No. 5049.
  • Enders, W. (1995) Applied Econometric Time Series, New York, John Wiley & Sons Inc,.
  • Ghate C., Vu Le, Q., ve. Zak, P. J (2003) “Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability”, Review of Development Economics, 7(4): 583-598.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric and Cross-Sectional Method”, Econometrica 37: 424–438.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1999) Temel Ekonometri, (çev: Ümit Şenses ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen), Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Hall, R. E. ve Charles, I. J. (1999) “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114( 1): 83-116.
  • Isham, J., Kaufmann, D. ve Pritchett, L. (1997) “Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects.” The World Bank Economic Review, 11( 2): 219–42.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12( 2-3): 231–54.
  • Johansen, S. ve Katarina, J. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration– with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52/ 2: 169-210.
  • Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009) “On the Measurement of Political Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 25: 15-29.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. ve Dibooğlu, S. (2001) “Long-Run Economic Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach”, Knowledge, Technology, &Policy, 13(4): 59-70.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (1998) “İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri”. AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53( 1-4): 207-230.
  • Klomp, J. ve Jakob, D.H. (2009) Political Institutions and Economic Volatility, European Journal of Political Economy, 25: 311-326.
  • Knack, S. ve Keefer, P.(1995) “Institutions and Economic Performance: Gross-Country Test Using Alternative Institutional Measures”, Economics and Politics, 7(3): 207-27.
  • Leahy J. V. ve Whited T. M. (1996) “The Effect of Uncertainity on Investment Some Stylized Facts”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(1): 64-83.
  • Murphy, K., Sleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. (1991), “The Allocation of Talent:Implications for Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 503-530.
  • Oliva, M. ve Rivera-Batiz, L. A. (2002) “Political Institutions, Capital Flows, and Developing Country Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Review of Development Economics, 6: 248-62.
  • Olson , M. (1982) “The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation and Social Rigidities”, New Hawen, Yale University Pres.
  • Parente, S.L. ve Prescott, E. C. (1994) “ Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development”, Journal of Political Economy, 102(2): 258-321.
  • Perotti, R. (1996) “Growth, Income, Distribution and Democracy: What the Data Say?”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2): 149-187.
  • Perrson, T. ve Svensson, L. (1989) “Why Stubborn Conservatives Run Deficits: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85. 325-45.
  • Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1994) “Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?”,American Economic Review, 84(3): 600–621.
  • Sokoloff, K. L. ve Engerman, S. L. (2000) “History Lessons: Institutions, Factors Endowment, and Paths of Development in the New World”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3): 217-232.
  • Swensson, J. (1998) “Investment, Properity Rights and Political Instability: Theory and Evidence, European Economic Review, 42: 1317-1341.
  • Tezel, Y. S, (2003) İktisadi Büyüme, Ankara, İmaj Yayınevi.

Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey

Year 2011, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 73 - 80, 01.02.2011

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between political instability and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Turkey, covering the period 1987-2007 using Johansen (1988) cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) tests. The result of the cointegration analysis indicates that there is a long-run relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and political instability. Additionally, the Error Correction Model suggests an uni-directional causal relationship from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to political instability

References

  • Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1995) “Income Distribution, Political Stability and Investment”, European Economic Review, 40:1203-1220.
  • Alesina, A. ve Rodrik, D., (1994) “Distributive Politics and Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (2): 465-490.
  • Alesina, A. ve Tabellini, G. (1990) “A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt”, Review of Economic Studies, (57): 403-414.
  • Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. ve Swagel, P. (1996) “Political Stability and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2): 189-211.
  • Asteriou, D., ve Price, S. (2001) “Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48 (4): 383-399.
  • Barro, R. (1997) The Determinants of Economic Growth; A Cross Country Empirical Study, Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2): 407- 444.
  • Barro, R. J. ve Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995) “Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth,” NBER Working Paper, No. 5151.
  • Benabou, R. (1996) “Inequality and Growth”, NBER Working Paper, 5658.
  • Benhabib, J. ve Rustichini, A. (1996) “Social Conflict and Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1 (1): 125-142.
  • Berthélemy, J., Kauffmann, C., Renard, L. ve Wegner, L. (2000) “Political Instability, Political Regimes and Economic Performance in African Countries”, Draft Paper for African Economic Outlook, Paris.
  • Bienen, H. S., Londregan, J. ve Van de Walle, N. (1993) “Ethnicity, Leadership Succession, and Economic Development in Africa.” Institute for Policy Reform, Washington, D.C.
  • Chen, B. ve Feng, Y. (1996) “Some Political Determinants of Economic Growth: Theory and Empirical Implication”, European Journal of Political Economy, 12: 607-27.
  • Collier, P. (1999) “On the Economic Consequences of Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 51: 163-83.
  • Darby, J., Chol-Won, L., ve Muscatelli, A. V. (2004) “Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth,” European Journal of Political Economy, 20(1):153-179.
  • De Haan, J. ve Siermann, C.L.J. (1995) “New Evidence on the Relationship Between Democracy and Economics Growth”, Public Choice, 86: 175-98.
  • Devereux, M. B. ve Wen, J. (1997) “Political Instability, Capital Taxation and Growth”, European Economic Review, 42: 1635- 1651.
  • Easterly, W. ve Levine, R. (1997) “Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4): 1203-1250.
  • Eaton, J. ve Kortum, S. S. (1995) “Trade in Ideas: Patenting and Productivity in the OECD”, NBER Working Papers, No. 5049.
  • Enders, W. (1995) Applied Econometric Time Series, New York, John Wiley & Sons Inc,.
  • Ghate C., Vu Le, Q., ve. Zak, P. J (2003) “Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability”, Review of Development Economics, 7(4): 583-598.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric and Cross-Sectional Method”, Econometrica 37: 424–438.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1999) Temel Ekonometri, (çev: Ümit Şenses ve Gülay Günlük Şenesen), Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Hall, R. E. ve Charles, I. J. (1999) “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114( 1): 83-116.
  • Isham, J., Kaufmann, D. ve Pritchett, L. (1997) “Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects.” The World Bank Economic Review, 11( 2): 219–42.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12( 2-3): 231–54.
  • Johansen, S. ve Katarina, J. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration– with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52/ 2: 169-210.
  • Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009) “On the Measurement of Political Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 25: 15-29.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. ve Dibooğlu, S. (2001) “Long-Run Economic Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach”, Knowledge, Technology, &Policy, 13(4): 59-70.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (1998) “İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri”. AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53( 1-4): 207-230.
  • Klomp, J. ve Jakob, D.H. (2009) Political Institutions and Economic Volatility, European Journal of Political Economy, 25: 311-326.
  • Knack, S. ve Keefer, P.(1995) “Institutions and Economic Performance: Gross-Country Test Using Alternative Institutional Measures”, Economics and Politics, 7(3): 207-27.
  • Leahy J. V. ve Whited T. M. (1996) “The Effect of Uncertainity on Investment Some Stylized Facts”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(1): 64-83.
  • Murphy, K., Sleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. (1991), “The Allocation of Talent:Implications for Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 503-530.
  • Oliva, M. ve Rivera-Batiz, L. A. (2002) “Political Institutions, Capital Flows, and Developing Country Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Review of Development Economics, 6: 248-62.
  • Olson , M. (1982) “The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation and Social Rigidities”, New Hawen, Yale University Pres.
  • Parente, S.L. ve Prescott, E. C. (1994) “ Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development”, Journal of Political Economy, 102(2): 258-321.
  • Perotti, R. (1996) “Growth, Income, Distribution and Democracy: What the Data Say?”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2): 149-187.
  • Perrson, T. ve Svensson, L. (1989) “Why Stubborn Conservatives Run Deficits: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85. 325-45.
  • Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1994) “Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?”,American Economic Review, 84(3): 600–621.
  • Sokoloff, K. L. ve Engerman, S. L. (2000) “History Lessons: Institutions, Factors Endowment, and Paths of Development in the New World”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3): 217-232.
  • Swensson, J. (1998) “Investment, Properity Rights and Political Instability: Theory and Evidence, European Economic Review, 42: 1317-1341.
  • Tezel, Y. S, (2003) İktisadi Büyüme, Ankara, İmaj Yayınevi.
There are 43 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA29SS44PJ
Journal Section Collection
Authors

Ünal Arslan This is me

Publication Date February 1, 2011
Published in Issue Year 2011 Volume: 11 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Arslan, Ü. (2011). Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey. Ege Academic Review, 11(1), 73-80.
AMA Arslan Ü. Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey. ear. February 2011;11(1):73-80.
Chicago Arslan, Ünal. “Political Instability and Economic Performance: The Case of Turkey”. Ege Academic Review 11, no. 1 (February 2011): 73-80.
EndNote Arslan Ü (February 1, 2011) Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey. Ege Academic Review 11 1 73–80.
IEEE Ü. Arslan, “Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey”, ear, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 73–80, 2011.
ISNAD Arslan, Ünal. “Political Instability and Economic Performance: The Case of Turkey”. Ege Academic Review 11/1 (February 2011), 73-80.
JAMA Arslan Ü. Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey. ear. 2011;11:73–80.
MLA Arslan, Ünal. “Political Instability and Economic Performance: The Case of Turkey”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 11, no. 1, 2011, pp. 73-80.
Vancouver Arslan Ü. Political Instability and Economic Performance: the Case of Turkey. ear. 2011;11(1):73-80.