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Short Term Determinants of Minimum Wage in Turkey: Causality Analysis

Year 2017, Volume: 3 Issue: 3, 429 - 445, 01.09.2017

Zeynep Burcu Bulut-çevik , Songül Solmaz Macit

Abstract

There is a vast literature about minimum wage since minimum wage can affect the whole economy not only socially but also politically. This study performs a short-term Engle-Granger causality analysis for minimum wage for Turkey over the period1988-2016. According to Engle-Granger causality test results, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, trade volume and unemployment ratio are effective in determining the minimum wage. The highlighting result is that changes in the minimum wage do not influence the aggregate demand. So, there is no significant change in price level. This shows how the workers struggle to earn a living with minimum wage and force to borrow. In addition, changes in the minimum wage also affect the competition power of Turkey internationally by observing the effects in trade volume. Other debatable topic in the literature is the relation between labor market and the minimum wage. Our Engle-Granger test results indicate that there is a two-way causality between unemployment rate and minimum wage. In other words, the changes in minimum wage significantly affect unemployment rate and vice versa

Keywords

Minimum Wage EngleGrangerCausality Analysis Turkey

References

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Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2017, Volume: 3 Issue: 3, 429 - 445, 01.09.2017

Zeynep Burcu Bulut-çevik , Songül Solmaz Macit

Abstract

Asgari ücrette yapılan değişikliklerin hem ekonomik hem sosyal hem de politik etkileri olması sebebiyle literatürde asgari ücretin ekonomiye etkileri üzerine çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmamızda 1988 ile 2016 yılları arasında Türkiye’de asgari ücretin kısa dönem nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Engle-Granger nedensellik analiz sonuçları Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), enflasyon, ticaret hacmi ve işsizlik oranı, asgari ücretin belirlenmesinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Dikkat çeken sonuç ise asgari ücretteki değişikliklerin talep artışına neden olmadığı, o yüzden enflasyonda istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir değişikliğe neden olmadığıdır. Ancakasgari ücretteki değişiklikler Türkiye’nin uluslararası rekabet gücünü etkilemektedir. Çalışmamızın sonuçları ayrıca asgari ücret ile işsizlik oranı arasında iki yönlü ilişki olduğuna ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, asgari ücretteki değişiklikler işsizlik oranını etkilerken; işsizlik oranındaki değişiklikler de asgari ücretin belirlenmesinde etkili olmaktadır.

Keywords

Asgari Ücret Engle-Granger Nedensellik Analizi Türkiye

References

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  • Addison, J. T.,Blackburn, M. L., ve Cotti, C. D. (2012),“TheEffect of Minimum Wages on Labour Market Outcomes: CountyLevel Estimates from the Restaurant and Bar Sector”,British Journal of Industrial Relations,50(3), p.412-435.
  • Addison, J. T.,Blackburn, M. L., ve Cotti, C. D. (2015), ”On The Robustness of Minimum Wage Effects: Geographically-DisparateTrends and Job Growth Equations”,IZA Journal Of Labor Economics,4(1), p.24.
  • Akgeyik, T., (2007), “Asgari Ücrette Esnek Modelleme: Bölgesel Asgari Ücret Yaklaşımı”, İstanbul Ticaret Odası, 2007-46
  • Akgül, O., (2016),“Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Mahzurlu Alanları ve Öneriler”,Emek ve Toplum Dergisi. 5(12), s. 96-127
  • Akın, F. (2017),“Asgari Ücretteki Artışın Ekonomik Etkileri”,Şeker- İş İş ve Hayat Dergisi.4, s.139-154
  • Allegretto, S. A.,Dube, A., ve Reich, M. (2011), “Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data”, Industria lRelations:A Journal Of Economy And Society,50(2), p. 205-240.
  • Baker, M. Benjamin, D.,ve Stanger, S. (1999),“The Highs and Lows of The Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study Of The Canadian Law”, Journal Of Labor Economics,17(2), p.318-350.
  • Bauer, T. K.,Kluve, J., Schaffner, S., ve Schmidt, C. M. (2009),“Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages: An Analysis for Germany”, German Economic Review, 10(2), p.224-242.
  • Bazen, S. (2007), “Do Minimum Wages Have a Negative Impact on Employment in the United States?”, Économie Publique/Public Economics, (17).
  • Bazen, S.veMarimoutou, V. (1997), “Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship”,Oxford Bulletin Of Economics and Statistics, 64, p.699- 725
  • Bazen, S.ve Martin, J. P. (1991), “The Impact of The Minimum Wage On Earnings and Employment in France”, OECD Economic Studies, 16, p.199-221.
  • Bell, L. A. (1997), “The Impact of Minimum Wagesin Mexico and Colombia”,Journal of Labor Economics,15(S3), p.102-135.
  • Benhayoun, G. (1994), “The Impact of Minimum Wages On Youth Employment in France Revisited: A Note On The Robustness of The Relationship”,International Journal of Manpower, 15(2/3), 82-85.
  • Brennan, J.ve Stanford, J. (2014), “Dispelling Minimum Wage Mythology: The Minimum Wage and The Impact on Jobsin Canada, 1983-2012”, Canadian Centre For Policy Alternatives= Centre Canadien De Politiques Alternatives.
  • Broecke, S.,Forti, A.ve Vandeweyer, M. (2015),“The Effects of Minimum Wageson Employment in Emerging Economies: A Literature Review”, National Minimum Wage Research Initiative (Johannesburg, School Of Economic and Business Sciences at The University Of Witwatersrand).
  • Burkhauser, R. V.,Couch, K. A. ve Glenn, A. J. (1995), “Public Policies For The Working Poor: The Earned Income Tax Credit Versus Minimum Wage Legislation”,Institute For Researchon Poverty, University of Wisconsin
  • Card, D.ve Krueger, A. B. (1994),“Minimum Wages And Employment: A Case Study of The fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania”,American Economic Review,84, p.772-793.
  • Card, D. ve Krueger, A. (1995),Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Card, D.,ve Krueger, A. B. (2000),“Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study Of The Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply”, The American Economic Review, 90(5), p.1397-1420.
  • Couch, K. A.ve Wittenburg, D. C. (2001),“The Response of Hours of Work to Increases in The Minimum Wage”,Southern Economic Journal, p.171-177.
  • Currie, J.ve Fallick, B. C. (1996),“The Minimum Wage and The Employment of Youth: Evidence from the NLSY”,The Journal of Human Resources,31(2), p.404.
  • Chapple, S. (1997),“Do Minimum Wages Have an Adverse Impact on Employment? Evidence from New Zealand”,Labour Market Bulletin,2, p.25-50.
  • Çiçek, S. (2013),“Asgari ve Ortalama Ücret Üzerindeki Kamusal Yüklerin İncelenmesi: Türkiye ve Bazı Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri” Hak İş Uluslararası Emek Ve Toplum Dergisi, 2(3).
  • Dağlıoğlu, S. ve Bakır, M. A. (2015), “Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisinin Sektörel Panel Regresyon Modelleri İle İncelenmesi” Sosyal Güvence Dergisi, No: 8, ss.35-68
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  • Deere, D., Murphy, K. M.ve Welch, F. (1995), “EmploymentandThe 1990-1991 Minimum- WageHike”,TheAmericanEconomicReview,85(2), p.232-237.
  • Dickens, R.,Machin, S.ve Manning, A. (1999),“TheEffects of Minimum Wages on Employment: TheoryandEvidenceFromBritain”,Journal of LaborEconomics,17(1), p.1-22.
  • Dube, A.,Lester, T. W.ve Reich, M. (2010),“Minimum WageEffectsAcrossStateBorders: Estimates Using ContiguousCounties”TheReviewof EconomicsandStatistics,92(4), p.945-964.
  • Eriş, M. (1969),“Asgari Ücretler ve Türkiye’deki Durum”, Şeker-İş Yayınları, No. 5
  • Esen, A. (1999),“Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret Uygulaması”,Amme İdaresi Dergisi,32(1), s. 63- 83.
  • Eser, B. Y.ve Terzi, H. (2008),“Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret: Sorunlar Öneriler”,Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1).
  • Gittings, R. K.veSchmutte, I. M. (2016),“Getting Handcuffson An Octopus: Minimum Wages, Employment, and Turn Over”,IIRReview,69(5), p.1133-1170.
  • Gosling, A. (1996),“Minimum Wages: Possible Effects on The Distribution of Income”,FiscalStudies,17(4), p.31-48.
  • Gökçekus, O.ve Tower, E. (2003),“An Efficiency Enhancing Minimum Wage”, The Journal ofPolicy Reform,6(4), p.247-259.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969),“Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross- Spectral Methods”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, p.424-438.
  • Güven, A.,Mollavelioglu, S.ve Dalgıç, B. Ç. (2011),“Asgari Ücret İstihdamı Arttırır Mı? 1969- 2008 Türkiye Örnegi”, METU Studies in Development, 38(2), s.147-166.
  • Herr, H.,Kazandziska, M.ve Mahnkopf-Praprotnik, S. (2009), “The Theoretical Debate About Minimum Wages”, Global Labour University Working Paper, No: 6
  • İnaltong, C. (2012),“Vergi Yükü: Türkiye Ve OECD Ülkeleri Karşılaştırması” Ankara: Vergi Dünyası Dergisi, 369.
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There are 82 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Zeynep Burcu Bulut-çevik

Songül Solmaz Macit This is me

Publication Date September 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 3 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Bulut-çevik, Z. B., & Solmaz Macit, S. (2017). Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(3), 429-445.
AMA Bulut-çevik ZB, Solmaz Macit S. Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi. UEAD. September 2017;3(3):429-445.
Chicago Bulut-çevik, Zeynep Burcu, and Songül Solmaz Macit. “Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi”. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 3, no. 3 (September 2017): 429-45.
EndNote Bulut-çevik ZB, Solmaz Macit S (September 1, 2017) Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 3 3 429–445.
IEEE Z. B. Bulut-çevik and S. Solmaz Macit, “Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi”, UEAD, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 429–445, 2017.
ISNAD Bulut-çevik, Zeynep Burcu - Solmaz Macit, Songül. “Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi”. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 3/3 (September 2017), 429-445.
JAMA Bulut-çevik ZB, Solmaz Macit S. Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi. UEAD. 2017;3:429–445.
MLA Bulut-çevik, Zeynep Burcu and Songül Solmaz Macit. “Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi”. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 3, no. 3, 2017, pp. 429-45.
Vancouver Bulut-çevik ZB, Solmaz Macit S. Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi. UEAD. 2017;3(3):429-45.