OECD Ülkelerinde Karbon Yoğunluğunun Kulüp Yakınsaması: Paris Anlaşması Öncesi ve Sonrası Alt Dönemlere İlişkin Bulgular

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1985-2022 döneminde 38 OECD ülkesinde karbon yoğunluğunun yakınsama dinamiklerini Phillips & Sul (2007; 2009) kulüp yakınsama yaklaşımı kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Bulgular, panel genelinde yakınsama hipotezini reddetmekte ve bunun yerine nihai olarak üç yakınsama kulübü ve bir ıraksayan gruptan oluşan çoklu bir yapı ortaya koymaktadır. İklim politikası rejimleri arasındaki farklılıkları değerlendirmek amacıyla analiz, taahhüt öncesi dönem (1985-2003), geçiş dönemi (2004-2022) ve Paris Anlaşması sonrası dönem (2015-2022) olmak üzere üç alt dönem için gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular, erken dönemin panel genelinde yakınsama ile karakterize edildiğini, geçiş döneminde ise yakınsamaya dair bir kanıt bulunmadığını göstermektedir. 2015 sonrası dönemde ise yakınsama dinamikleri daha parçalı bir görünüm sergilemekte; bu durum, ıraksayan birimlerin artışı ve birden fazla yakınsama kulübünün varlığını sürdürmesiyle kendini göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, yakınsama örüntülerinin zaman içinde istikrarlı olmadığını ve politika rejimlerine göre önemli ölçüde değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Genel olarak sonuçlar, ortak uluslararası iklim taahhütlerinin OECD ülkeleri arasında homojen bir yakınsama sağlamadığını ve yapısal farklılıkları dikkate alan kulüp temelli politika çerçevelerine duyulan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Karbon Yoğunluğu
• Kulüp Yakınsaması
• Paris Anlaşması
• OECD Ülkeleri

Club Convergence of Carbon Intensity in OECD Countries: Evidence from Pre- and Post-Paris Agreement Subperiods

Abstract

This study analyzes the convergence dynamics of carbon intensity across 38 OECD countries from 1985 to 2022 using the club convergence approach of Phillips & Sul (2007; 2009). The results reject panel-wide convergence and instead reveal a multi-club structure, ultimately consisting of three convergence clubs and a divergent group. To assess variation across climate policy regimes, the analysis is conducted for three subperiods: the pre-commitment period (1985-2003), the transition period (2004-2022), and the post-Paris Agreement period (2015-2022). The findings show that the early period is characterized by panel convergence, while the transition period shows no evidence of convergence. In the post-2015 period, convergence dynamics became more fragmented, reflected in an increase in divergent units and the persistence of multiple convergence clubs. These findings highlight that convergence patterns are not stable over time and vary significantly across policy regimes. Overall, the results indicate that common international climate commitments have not produced uniform convergence among OECD countries, underscoring the need for structurally differentiated and club-specific policy frameworks.

Keywords

• Carbon Intensity
• Club Convergence
• Paris Agreement
• OECD Countries

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