Stratejik Öngörülemezlik: Deli Adam (Madman) Teorisinin Trump’ın Liderlik Modeli Özelinde İncelenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, stratejik öngörülemezlik kavramını temel alan Deli Adam Teorisini (Madman Theory), Donald Trump’ın başkanlık dönemi liderlik tarzı özelinde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmanın temel sorusu, Trump’ın kasıtlı olarak sergilediği öngörülemez davranışların bir liderlik stratejisi olarak nasıl işlediği, bu stratejinin örgüt içi ve dışı dinamikler üzerindeki etkileri ve etik sonuçlarıdır. Araştırmada nitel araştırma deseni benimsenmiş ve Trump’ın 2017-2021 dönemine ait Twitter paylaşımları içerik analizi yöntemiyle çözümlenmiştir. Veriler, Kuzey Kore, İran, Orta Doğu politikaları, ulusal güvenlik danışmanı değişimleri ve genel dış politika konularına odaklanılarak kategorize edilmiştir. Bulgular, Trump’ın öngörülemezlik stratejisinin kısa vadeli caydırıcılık ve müzakere avantajı sağladığını, ancak uzun vadede örgütsel güveni zedelediğini, psikolojik sözleşmeyi ihlal ettiğini ve toksik bir liderlik iklimi yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak, stratejik öngörülemezliğin geçici taktiksel faydalar sağlasa da örgütsel sürdürülebilirlik ve etik liderlik açısından ciddi riskler taşıdığı anlaşılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, teoriyi örgütsel bağlama taşıyarak literatüre katkı sunmakta ve liderlik eğitimi ile politika geliştirme süreçleri için pratik çıkarımlar önermektedir.

Keywords

• Stratejik Öngörülemezlik
• Deli Adam Teorisi
• Trump Liderlik Tarzı

Strategic Unpredictability: An Analysis of the Madman Theory in the Context of Trump’s Leadership Model

Abstract

This study aims to examine the Madman Theory, which is based on the concept of strategic unpredictability, through the lens of Donald Trump's leadership style during his presidential term. The central research question explores how Trump's deliberately unpredictable behavior functioned as a leadership strategy, its effects on internal and external dynamics, and its ethical implications. A qualitative research design was adopted, and Trump's Twitter posts from the 2017–2021 period were analyzed using content analysis methodology. The data were categorized with a focus on policies toward North Korea and Iran, Middle East interventions, changes in national security advisors, and general foreign policy. The findings indicate that while Trump's unpredictability strategy provided short-term deterrence and negotiation advantages, it eroded organizational trust, violated psychological contracts, and fostered a toxic leadership climate in the long run. In conclusion, strategic unpredictability, despite offering temporary tactical benefits, poses significant risks to organizational sustainability and ethical leadership. This study contributes to the literature by adapting the theory to an organizational context and offers practical implications for leadership development and policy-making processes.

Keywords

• Unpredictability
• Madman Theory
• Trump’s Leadership Style

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