Türkiye’de Yolsuzluk ve Hükümet Büyüklüğü Arasındaki İlişkinin Tespiti: Küreselleşme Önemli mi?

Öz

Ekonomik krizler, salgın hastalıklar, çevresel bozulma ve jeopolitik çatışmalar, yıllar içinde kamu maliyesi politikalarında önemli dönüşümlere yol açmıştır. Özellikle refah devletiyle ilişkilendirilen kamu müdahaleciliği anlayışı, birçok ülkede kamu politikalarını belirleyen temel bir unsur haline gelmiştir. Ancak kamu harcamalarındaki sürekli artış, bütçe sürdürülebilirliğini zorlamaktadır. Politik, kurumsal ve küresel faktörlerin kamu harcama düzeyleri üzerindeki belirgin etkisi, etkinlik ile müdahale arasında bir ödünleşimin varlığını ortaya çıkarmıştır. Politik yolsuzluğun varlığında ise bu tür müdahaleler bir gereklilikten ziyade rant arayışına dönüşmekte ve hükümet büyüklüğü verimsiz biçimde artmaktadır. Öte yandan, küreselleşme hem kamu sektörünün büyüklüğü hem de kurumsal yapısı üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de yolsuzluk, küreselleşme ve hükümet büyüklüğü arasındaki ilişkiye odaklanmaktadır. Çalışma, küreselleşmenin yalnızca hükümet büyüklüğünü etkilemediğini, yolsuzluk ile hükümet büyüklüğü arasındaki ilişki üzerinde de etkili olabileceği fikrine dayanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, 1970–2019 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) yaklaşımıyla değişkenler arasındaki dinamikler incelenmiştir. Bulgular, yolsuzluğun hükümet büyüklüğünü artırırken küreselleşmenin azalttığını göstermektedir. Dahası, küreselleşme moderatör etki yaratarak yolsuzluk ile hükümet büyüklüğü arasındaki istatistiksel ilişkiyi anlamlı biçimde zayıflatmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hükümet Büyüklüğü
• Yolsuzluk
• Küreselleşme
• ARDL

Exploring the Relationship between Corruption and Government Size in Türkiye: Does Globalization Matter?

Abstract

Economic crises, pandemics, environmental degradation, and geopolitical conflicts have led to major transformations in public finance policies over the years. In particular, government interventionism associated with the welfare state has become a defining element of public policies in many countries. However, the continuous increase in government expenditures has challenged budget sustainability. The significant influence of political, institutional, and global factors on expenditure levels has revealed a trade-off between efficiency and intervention. In the presence of political corruption, such interventions often shift from being a necessity to becoming rent-seeking activities, leading to an inefficient expansion of government size. On the other hand, globalization exerts a substantial impact on both the size and the institutional structure of the public sector. This study focuses on the relationship among corruption, globalization, and government size in Türkiye. It is based on the idea that globalization may affect not only government size directly but also the relationship between corruption and government size. Within this framework, the dynamics among the variables have been examined for the period 1970–2019 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings indicate that while corruption increases government size, globalization reduces it significantly. Moreover, globalization has a moderating effect that significantly weakens the statistical relationship between corruption and government size.

Keywords

• Government Size
• Corruption
• Globalization
• ARDL

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