TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE YABANCI SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI İLE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: SİMETRİK/ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1975-2015 döneminde yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki simetrik/asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Değişkenlerin birim kök özellikleri, Ng-Perron ve Lee-Strazicich birim kök teknikleriyle test edilmektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşmenin araştırılmasında ARDL sınır testi kullanılmaktadır. Simetrik nedensellik analizi, Toda-Yamamoto ile Hacker ve Hatemi-J nedensellik testleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi, Hatemi-J nedensellik yaklaşımı ile incelenmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, yapısal kırılmalar altında eşbütünleşmenin varlığını göstermektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, aynı zamanda enerji tüketiminden yabancı sermaye yatırımlarına doğru bir simetrik nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir. Pozitif yabancı sermaye yatırımları şokundan pozitif enerji tüketimi şokuna doğru bir nedenselliğin yanı sıra negatif enerji tüketimi şokundan negatif yabancı sermaye yatırımları şokuna doğru bir nedensellik söz konusudur. Bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisi ile ilgili politika önerileri sunabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları
• Enerji Tüketimi
• ARDL Sınır Testi
• Simetrik/Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi
• Türkiye

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKISH ECONOMY: SYMMETRIC/ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper explores the symmetric/asymmetric causal linkage between foreign direct investments and energy consumption in Turkey over the period 1975-2015. The unit root properties of variables are tested by the Ng-Perron and Lee-Strazicich unit root techniques. The ARDL bounds test is used to examine the cointegration between the variables. The Toda-Yamamoto and Hacker and Hatemi-J causality tests are used to investigate the symmetric causalit analysis. The Hatemi-J causality approach is applied to explore the asymmetric causal relationship between the variables. Empirical results show that there exists cointegration between the variables in the existence of structural breaks. Empirical results also show the existence of symmetric causality running from energy consumption to foreign direct investments. There exists causality from positive foreign direct investment shocks to positive energy consumption shocks. There also exists causality from negative energy consumption shocks to negative foreign direct investment shocks. The findings will present policy implications related to Turkish economy.

Keywords

• Foreign Direct Investments
• Energy Consumption
• ARDL Bounds Test
• Symmetric/Asymmetric Causality Analysis
• Turkey

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