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IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Year 2016, ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı, 225 - 236, 01.10.2016

Abstract

Economic growth, macroeconomic stability and financial stability are among major policy goals of countries. This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic and financial stability on economic growth in Turkey during the period Ocak 2005-December 2015 using ARDL cointegration. We found that there was a long run relationship among the variables; increases in non-performing loans by banks and TL/dollar foreign exchange rates had negative impact on industrial production in both short and long run. Furthermore, increases in change of domestic credit to private sector by bank had positive impact on industrial production only in short run

References

  • Adak, M. (2010). Public debt and economic growth: the case of Turkey. Maliye Dergisi, 159(2), 233-243.
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombart street: A Description of the money market. New York, Wiley & Sons.
  • Barro, J. R.(1996). Determinants of growth: a cross-country emprical study. NBER Working Paper, No: 5698.
  • Bauducco, Sofia, Buliř, A., Čihák, M. (2008). Monetary policy rules with financial instability. Working papers Czech National Bank. 8, 1–41.
  • Carbo-Valverde, S., Sanchez, L.P. (2013). Financial stability and economic growth. Crisis, Risk and Stability in Financial Markets, ed. by. Juan Fernandez de Guevara Radoselovics ve Jose Manuel Pastor Monsalvez, 8-23.
  • Carlson, Mark, King, T., Lewis, K. (2009). Distress in the financial sector and economic activity. Working papers Federal Reserve Board. 43.
  • Creel, J., Hubert, P., Labondance, F. (2015). Financial stability and economic performance. Economic Modelling, 48, 25–40.
  • Crosby, M. (2000). Exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic performance in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Papers, No:032000.
  • Dhal, S., Kumar, P., Ansari, J. (2011).Financial stability, economic growth, inflation and monetary policy linkages in India: an empirical reflection. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(3), 1-35.
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057– 72. Tarihinde adresinden erişildi http://www.jstor.org/stable/1912517
  • Domaç, İ., Shabsigh, G. (1999). Real exchange rate behavior and economic growth: evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. IMF Working Paper, No: WP/99/40.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction : Representation , Estimation , and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. Tarihinde http://www.med.upenn.edu/beat/docs/Engle1987.pdf adresinden erişildi
  • Enowbi, M.B., Kupukile, M. (2012).Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries. MPRA Paper No. 43340, Erişim Tarihi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43340/
  • Fountas, S., Karanasos, M., Kim, J. (2006). Inflation uncertainty, output growth uncertainty and macroeconomic performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(3), 319–343.
  • Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial structure and development. New Haven, Yale University Press.
  • Haghighi,H.K., Sameti, M., Isfahani, R.D. (2012). The effect of macroeconomic instability on economic growth in Iran. Research in Applied Economics, 4(3), 39- 61.
  • Hakkio, Craig and Keeton W. (2009). Financial stress, what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter? Economic Review — Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Second Quarter.
  • Ismihan, M., Metin-Ozcan, K., Tansel, A. (2005). The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963- 1999. Applied Economics, 37(2), 239-251.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231–254. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165- 1889(88)90041-3
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration- with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of economics and statistics, 52(2), 169–210. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468- 0084.1990.mp52002003.x
  • Kaplan, F., Yapraklı, S. (2014). The impacts of institutions, openness and macroeconomic stability on economic growth: a panel data analysis on middle income countries. Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 20, 104-123.
  • Keşkek, S. ve Özhan, M. (2004). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and economic growth. Journal of Active, 37, 1-18.
  • King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737.
  • Kolawole, B.O. (2013). Growth-effects of macroeconomic stability factors: empirical
  • evidence from Nigeria. Developing Country Studies, 3(14), 47-55.
  • Lensink, R. (2005). Uncertainty, financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis. Organisations and Management (SOM) Researh Paper, No:187693.
  • Lown, C., Morgan, D., Rohatgi, S. (2000). Listening to loan officers, the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output. Economic Policy Review Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 6.
  • Ma, H. (1998). Inflation, uncertainty and growth in Colombia. IMF Working Paper,No:WP/98/161.
  • Mahmood, I., Ehsanullah, M., Ahmed, H. (2011). Exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. Business Management Dynamics, 1(2), 11- 22.
  • Manu, L.P, Adjasi, C.K.D., Abor, J., Harvey, S.K. (2011). Financial stability and economic growth: a cross-country study. International Journal of Financial Services Management, 5(2), 121-138.
  • Nas, F. T. and Perry, J. M. (2000). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and monetary policy in Turkey:1960-1998. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(2), 170-180.
  • Nyasha, S., Odhiambo, N.M. (2015). Banks, stock market development and economic growth in South Africa: a multivariate causal linkage. Applied Economics Letters, 22(18), 1480-1485.
  • Ocampo, J.A. (2005). A broad view of macroeconomic stability.DESA Working Paper No. http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2005/wp1_2005.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 05.02.2016
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Içinde S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century (C. 31, ss. 371–413). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. http://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. http://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  • Sanchez-Robles, B. (1998). Macroeconomic stability and economic growth: the case of Spain. Applied Economics Letters, 5, 587-591
  • Schinasi, G.J. (2004). Defining financial stability. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/04/187
  • Schnabl, G. (2007). Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery. European Central Bank Working Paper Series No:773.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The theory of economic development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Şahbaz, N., İnkaya, A. (2014). Türk bankacılık sektöründe sorunlu krediler ve makro ekonomik etkileri. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(1), 69-82.
  • TCMB. (2016a). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi-Üretim, istihdam ve ücret verileri- Sanayi üretim endeksi (2010=100)(TÜİK)(Aylık)(NACE REV.2) Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TCMB. (2016b). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi- Aylık para ve banka istatistikleri – krediler. Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TCMB. (2016c). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi-Kurlar-döviz kurları. Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TCMB. (2016ç). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi-Kamu maliyesi-Genel bütçe dengesi ve finansmanı. Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TÜİK. (2016). Tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE). Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1014
  • Valickova, P., Havranek, T., Horvath, R. (2015). Financial development and economic growth: A Meta-analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(3), 506–526.

MAKROEKONOMİK VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRARIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2016, ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı, 225 - 236, 01.10.2016

Abstract

Ekonomik büyüme, makroekonomik ve finansal istikrar ülkelerin başlıca politika hedefleri arasında yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada ARDL sınır testine dayalı eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak Ocak 2005-Aralık 2015 döneminde Türkiye’de makroekonomik istikrar ile finansal istikrarın, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olduğu, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde bankalar tarafından tasfiye olunacak alacaklar ile döviz kuru değişim oranındaki artışların, sanayi üretimi üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca bankalar tarafından özel sektöre verilen kredilerin değişim oranındaki artışların ise, sadece kısa dönemde sanayi üretimi üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir.

References

  • Adak, M. (2010). Public debt and economic growth: the case of Turkey. Maliye Dergisi, 159(2), 233-243.
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombart street: A Description of the money market. New York, Wiley & Sons.
  • Barro, J. R.(1996). Determinants of growth: a cross-country emprical study. NBER Working Paper, No: 5698.
  • Bauducco, Sofia, Buliř, A., Čihák, M. (2008). Monetary policy rules with financial instability. Working papers Czech National Bank. 8, 1–41.
  • Carbo-Valverde, S., Sanchez, L.P. (2013). Financial stability and economic growth. Crisis, Risk and Stability in Financial Markets, ed. by. Juan Fernandez de Guevara Radoselovics ve Jose Manuel Pastor Monsalvez, 8-23.
  • Carlson, Mark, King, T., Lewis, K. (2009). Distress in the financial sector and economic activity. Working papers Federal Reserve Board. 43.
  • Creel, J., Hubert, P., Labondance, F. (2015). Financial stability and economic performance. Economic Modelling, 48, 25–40.
  • Crosby, M. (2000). Exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic performance in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Papers, No:032000.
  • Dhal, S., Kumar, P., Ansari, J. (2011).Financial stability, economic growth, inflation and monetary policy linkages in India: an empirical reflection. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(3), 1-35.
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057– 72. Tarihinde adresinden erişildi http://www.jstor.org/stable/1912517
  • Domaç, İ., Shabsigh, G. (1999). Real exchange rate behavior and economic growth: evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. IMF Working Paper, No: WP/99/40.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction : Representation , Estimation , and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. Tarihinde http://www.med.upenn.edu/beat/docs/Engle1987.pdf adresinden erişildi
  • Enowbi, M.B., Kupukile, M. (2012).Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries. MPRA Paper No. 43340, Erişim Tarihi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43340/
  • Fountas, S., Karanasos, M., Kim, J. (2006). Inflation uncertainty, output growth uncertainty and macroeconomic performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(3), 319–343.
  • Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial structure and development. New Haven, Yale University Press.
  • Haghighi,H.K., Sameti, M., Isfahani, R.D. (2012). The effect of macroeconomic instability on economic growth in Iran. Research in Applied Economics, 4(3), 39- 61.
  • Hakkio, Craig and Keeton W. (2009). Financial stress, what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter? Economic Review — Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Second Quarter.
  • Ismihan, M., Metin-Ozcan, K., Tansel, A. (2005). The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963- 1999. Applied Economics, 37(2), 239-251.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231–254. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165- 1889(88)90041-3
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration- with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of economics and statistics, 52(2), 169–210. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468- 0084.1990.mp52002003.x
  • Kaplan, F., Yapraklı, S. (2014). The impacts of institutions, openness and macroeconomic stability on economic growth: a panel data analysis on middle income countries. Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 20, 104-123.
  • Keşkek, S. ve Özhan, M. (2004). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and economic growth. Journal of Active, 37, 1-18.
  • King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737.
  • Kolawole, B.O. (2013). Growth-effects of macroeconomic stability factors: empirical
  • evidence from Nigeria. Developing Country Studies, 3(14), 47-55.
  • Lensink, R. (2005). Uncertainty, financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis. Organisations and Management (SOM) Researh Paper, No:187693.
  • Lown, C., Morgan, D., Rohatgi, S. (2000). Listening to loan officers, the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output. Economic Policy Review Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 6.
  • Ma, H. (1998). Inflation, uncertainty and growth in Colombia. IMF Working Paper,No:WP/98/161.
  • Mahmood, I., Ehsanullah, M., Ahmed, H. (2011). Exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. Business Management Dynamics, 1(2), 11- 22.
  • Manu, L.P, Adjasi, C.K.D., Abor, J., Harvey, S.K. (2011). Financial stability and economic growth: a cross-country study. International Journal of Financial Services Management, 5(2), 121-138.
  • Nas, F. T. and Perry, J. M. (2000). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and monetary policy in Turkey:1960-1998. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(2), 170-180.
  • Nyasha, S., Odhiambo, N.M. (2015). Banks, stock market development and economic growth in South Africa: a multivariate causal linkage. Applied Economics Letters, 22(18), 1480-1485.
  • Ocampo, J.A. (2005). A broad view of macroeconomic stability.DESA Working Paper No. http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2005/wp1_2005.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 05.02.2016
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Içinde S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century (C. 31, ss. 371–413). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. http://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. http://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  • Sanchez-Robles, B. (1998). Macroeconomic stability and economic growth: the case of Spain. Applied Economics Letters, 5, 587-591
  • Schinasi, G.J. (2004). Defining financial stability. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/04/187
  • Schnabl, G. (2007). Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery. European Central Bank Working Paper Series No:773.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The theory of economic development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Şahbaz, N., İnkaya, A. (2014). Türk bankacılık sektöründe sorunlu krediler ve makro ekonomik etkileri. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(1), 69-82.
  • TCMB. (2016a). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi-Üretim, istihdam ve ücret verileri- Sanayi üretim endeksi (2010=100)(TÜİK)(Aylık)(NACE REV.2) Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TCMB. (2016b). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi- Aylık para ve banka istatistikleri – krediler. Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TCMB. (2016c). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi-Kurlar-döviz kurları. Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TCMB. (2016ç). Elektronik veri dağıtım sistemi-Kamu maliyesi-Genel bütçe dengesi ve finansmanı. Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TÜİK. (2016). Tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE). Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2016, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1014
  • Valickova, P., Havranek, T., Horvath, R. (2015). Financial development and economic growth: A Meta-analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(3), 506–526.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Hüseyin Karamelikli This is me

Yılmaz Bayar This is me

Publication Date October 1, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı

Cite

APA Karamelikli, H., & Bayar, Y. (2016). MAKROEKONOMİK VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRARIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 225-236.