Türkiye’de 2030–2040 Arasında Araç Sayısı Değişimi ile Karbon Ayak İzi Eğilimlerinin Polinom Regresyon ile Modellenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 2004–2024 yılları arasında tescilli araç türlerindeki değişimleri analiz ederek, 2030, 2035 ve 2040 yılları için araç sayısı ve ulaşım kaynaklı karbon ayak izi tahminleri sunmaktadır. Polinom regresyon tabanlı zaman serisi modellemesi ile benzinli, dizel ve LPG'li araçların gelecekteki eğilimleri öngörülmüş, bu eğilimlerin karbon emisyonlarına etkisi üç farklı politika senaryosu altında değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, fosil yakıtlı araçların yaygınlığının sürmesi durumunda karbon ayak izinin artmaya devam edeceğini; ancak elektrikli ve hibrit araçların yaygınlaştırılmasıyla bu artışın önemli ölçüde azaltılabileceğini göstermektedir. Özellikle ileri düzey sürdürülebilirlik politikalarının uygulandığı senaryoda 2040 yılına kadar emisyonlarda anlamlı bir azalma elde edilebileceği ortaya konmuştur. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin 2053 Net Sıfır Emisyon hedefi doğrultusunda ulaşım sektörü için veri temelli politika önerileri sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir ulaşım
• karbon ayak izi
• elektrikli araçlar
• zaman serisi analizi
• Polinom Regresyon modeli
• Türkiye ulaşım sektörü.

Modeling Vehicle Number Change and Carbon Footprint Trends in Turkey (2030–2040) Using Polynomial Regression

Abstract

This study analyzes the changes in registered vehicle types in Turkey from 2004 to 2024 and presents forecasts for vehicle numbers and transportation-related carbon footprint for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Using a polynomial regression-based time series model, future trends for gasoline, diesel, and LPG-powered vehicles are projected, and their environmental impacts are evaluated under three distinct policy scenarios. The results show that if fossil-fueled vehicles continue to dominate, the carbon footprint will increase significantly; however, a rapid transition to electric and hybrid vehicles can substantially reduce emissions. The scenario-based projections indicate that advanced sustainability policies could achieve meaningful reductions in emissions by 2040. This study offers evidence-based policy recommendations to support Turkey’s pathway toward its 2053 Net Zero Emission target, emphasizing the critical role of low-carbon mobility transitions.

Keywords

• Sustainable transportation
• carbon footprint
• electric vehicles
• time series analysis
• Polynomial Regression model
• Turkey transportation sector.

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