TURİZM VE ULAŞIM ALTYAPISININ GELİR DAĞILIMI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BULGULAR

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1997-2020 arasında yıllık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye için turizm, ulaşım altyapısı ve gelir eşitsizliği arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL sınır testi) aracılığı ile analiz etmektedir. Bunu yaparken, öncelikle serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin belirlenmesi için Dickey ve Fuller (1981) tarafından geliştirilen ADF birim kök testi ve Phillips-Perron (1988) tarafından geliştirilen PP birim kök testlerinden faydalanılmış ve her iki birim kök testine göre de serilerin fark değerlerinde durağanlaştıkları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Daha sonra seriler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmış ve ardından kısa ve uzun dönem katsayı tahmini yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular değerlendirildiğinde, gelen turist sayısının kısa dönemde gelir eşitsizliğini arttırdığı uzun dönemde ise gelir eşitsizliğini azalttığı, ulaşım altyapısının ise kısa dönemde gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde istatistiksel olarak bir etkiye sahip olmamasına rağmen uzun dönemde gelir eşitsizliğini arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.Söz konusu bilgilere dayalı olarak bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de politik istikrarın sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın farklı boyutlarından biri olan sosyal sürdürülebilirlik üzerindeki etkisini 2002-2017 dönemi için incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda oluşturulan modelde sosyal sürdürülebilirliği incelemek amacıyla politik istikrarın ve reel GSYH’nın yoksulluk üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Söz konusu ilişkiler, zaman serisi yöntemleri aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular değerlendirildiğinde, reel GSYH’daki artışın yoksulluk oranını arttırdığı fakat politik istikrardaki artışın yoksulluğu azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Gelir eşitsizliği
• Turist sayısı
• Ulaşım altyapısı

THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM AND TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Abstract

This study analyzes the long-term relationship between tourism, transportation infrastructure and income inequality for Turkey using annual data between 1997 and 2020 by means of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL boundary test). While doing this, first of all, the ADF unit root test developed by Dickey and Fuller (1981) and the PP unit root tests developed by Phillips-Perron (1988) are used to determine the degree of stationarity of the series, and it is concluded that the series become stationary in difference values according to both unit root tests. Afterwards, it is concluded that the long-term relationship between the series is valid, and then the short- and long-term coefficient estimation is made. When the findings are evaluated, it is concluded that the number of tourists increases income inequality in the short term, decreases income inequality in the long term, and that although the transportation infrastructure does not have a statistical effect on income inequality in the short term, it increases income inequality in the long term.Söz konusu bilgilere dayalı olarak bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de politik istikrarın sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın farklı boyutlarından biri olan sosyal sürdürülebilirlik üzerindeki etkisini 2002-2017 dönemi için incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda oluşturulan modelde sosyal sürdürülebilirliği incelemek amacıyla politik istikrarın ve reel GSYH’nın yoksulluk üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Söz konusu ilişkiler, zaman serisi yöntemleri aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular değerlendirildiğinde, reel GSYH’daki artışın yoksulluk oranını arttırdığı fakat politik istikrardaki artışın yoksulluğu azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Income inequality
• Tourist arrival
• Transportation infrastructure

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