RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ENERGY PRICES IN TURKEY: ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Year 2022, , 938 - 952, 27.12.2022

Mustafa Naimoğlu , Bilal Özel

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2022.038

Abstract

This study differs in terms of investigating the causal relationship between energy prices and energy consumption for Turkey with traditional and current tests. While doing this, Turkey's economy was analyzed using annual data of Energy Prices and Energy Consumption for the 1971-2019 period. First of all, the conventional ADF was applied to determine the stationarity degrees of the series. Then, Fractional Fourier ADF stability tests -which is an up-to-date technique- were performed. Later, traditional Granger and contemporary Hatemi-J causality tests were used. Findings revealed that there is no causality between variables according to Granger. However, according to Hatemi-J, there is a causality from Energy Prices divided into positive components to Energy Consumption divided into positive and negative shocks, and Energy Prices divided into negative components to Energy Consumption divided into positive components.

Keywords

Energy Prices, Energy Consumption, Asymmetric Causality.

TÜRKİYE’DE ENERJİ FİYATLARI İLE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye için enerji fiyatları ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi geleneksel ve güncel testlerle araştırmak açısından farklılık göstermektedir. Bunu yaparken enerji fiyatları ile enerji tüketimini Türkiye için 1971-2019 döneminde yıllık verilerle analiz etmektedir. Öncelikle serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla geleneksel ADF ve güncel bir teknik olan Kesirli Fourier ADF durağanlık testleri yapılmıştır. Daha sonra ise geleneksel Granger ve güncel Hatemi-j nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular göstermiştir ki Granger’ e göre değişkenler arasında bir nedensellik yoktur. Ancak Hatemi-j’ ye göre ise pozitif bileşenlerine ayrılmış enerji fiyatlarından pozitif ve negatif şoklarına ayrılmış enerji tüketimine doğru ve negatif bileşenlerine ayrılmış enerji fiyatlarından pozitif bileşenlerine ayrılmış enerji tüketimine doğru bir nedensellik bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Enerji Fiyatları, Enerji Tüketimi, Asimetrik Nedensellik.

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