Research Article

Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa

Volume: 19 Number: 7 September 28, 2026
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Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa

Abstract

Secessionist movements remain a persistent topic in African politics, yet it remains valid to ask why only two have progressed toward internationally recognized statehood. This study examines distinction between the conditions that generate secessionist mobilization and those that enable movements to move toward independence. It develops a dual level analytical framework that evaluates six factors across actor-level and system-level categories. At the actor level, the framework considers restorative claims, remedial rights, and geographical characteristics; at the system level, it examines conflict dynamics, functional capacity, and external support. Drawing on a comparative analysis of ten contemporary African secessionist movements, the study shows that progress toward internationally recognized independence depends not on any single factor, but on configuration between actor-level foundations and system-level opportunities. The findings suggest that Western Sahara, Cabinda, and Biafra display comparatively favourable configurations for potential secessionist advancement, particularly where external alignment, international permissibility, and sufficient actor-level foundations converge.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

CoHE

References

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  3. Bahcheli, T., Bartmann, B., & Srebrnik, H. (Eds.). (2004). De facto states: The quest for sovereignty. Routledge.
  4. Bartkus, V. O. (2004). The dynamic of secession. Cambridge University Press.
  5. Buchanan, A. (2003). The making and unmaking of boundaries: What liberalism has to say. In A. Buchanan & M. Moore (Eds.), States, nations, and borders: The ethics of making boundaries (pp. 231–261). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511613937.012
  6. Buchanan, A. (2007). Justice, legitimacy, and self-determination: Moral foundations for international law. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295359.001.0001
  7. Buhaug, H., & Rød, J. K. (2006). Local determinants of African civil wars, 1970–2001. Political Geography, 25(3), 315–335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2006.02.005
  8. Byrne, H., & Englebert, P. (2019). Shifting grounds for African secessionism. In L. de Vries, P. Englebert, & M. Schomerus (Eds.), Secessionism in African politics (pp. 455–488). Palgrave Macmillan.

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

International Relations (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

September 28, 2026

Submission Date

July 20, 2026

Acceptance Date

September 24, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 19 Number: 7

APA
Sapmaz, H., & Tamçelik, S. (2026). Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa. Kent Akademisi, 19(7), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1999369
AMA
1.Sapmaz H, Tamçelik S. Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa. Urban Academy. 2026;19(7):1-16. doi:10.35674/kent.1999369
Chicago
Sapmaz, Hande, and Soyalp Tamçelik. 2026. “Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa”. Kent Akademisi 19 (7): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1999369.
EndNote
Sapmaz H, Tamçelik S (September 1, 2026) Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa. Kent Akademisi 19 7 1–16.
IEEE
[1]H. Sapmaz and S. Tamçelik, “Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa”, Urban Academy, vol. 19, no. 7, pp. 1–16, Sept. 2026, doi: 10.35674/kent.1999369.
ISNAD
Sapmaz, Hande - Tamçelik, Soyalp. “Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa”. Kent Akademisi 19/7 (September 1, 2026): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1999369.
JAMA
1.Sapmaz H, Tamçelik S. Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa. Urban Academy. 2026;19:1–16.
MLA
Sapmaz, Hande, and Soyalp Tamçelik. “Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa”. Kent Akademisi, vol. 19, no. 7, Sept. 2026, pp. 1-16, doi:10.35674/kent.1999369.
Vancouver
1.Hande Sapmaz, Soyalp Tamçelik. Who Is Next? Explaining Secessionist Prospects in Postcolonial Africa. Urban Academy. 2026 Sep. 1;19(7):1-16. doi:10.35674/kent.1999369

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