Determining the Climate Future Projection of Erzurum City with the UrbClim Model

Year 2023, , 112 - 122, 31.07.2023

Sevgi Yılmaz , Cihad Bilge , Mehmet Irmak

https://doi.org/10.30785/mbud.1256724

Abstract

The negativities brought by climate change, which is among the crisis agendas today, directly affect the cities. According to the UN, the rate of urbanization in the world is increasing rapidly. It is estimated that it will reach 6.4 billion in 2050. The UrbClim model is also used to project future climate in cities. For the province of Erzurum, where the climate negatively affects living things, the climate data of the city for the first 10 days of July 2016, 2017, and 2018 were analyzed using the UrbClim model. This study, it is aimed to analyze the exemplary cities with cold climates in the world, which will set an example in the determination of climate change and support sustainable and livable urbanization, use energy efficiently, and to produce climate adaptation strategies at the point related to landscape.

Keywords

Future climate change, UrbClim, planting design, global climate model, Erzurum

Supporting Institution

Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye, TÜBİTAK 1001-TOVAG

Project Number

Project No: 119O479

Thanks

A simplified version of the work was only orally presented at the “3rd International Conference on Climate Change 1st to 3rd June 2022, Bali, Indonesia.” Authors present their special thanks to “The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye, TÜBİTAK 1001-TOVAG under Project No: 119O479 and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) for sharing their data free of charge.

UrbClim Modeli ile Erzurum Kentinin İklim Gelecek Projeksiyonunun Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Günümüzde kriz gündemleri arasında yer alan iklim değişikliğinin getirdiği olumsuzluklar doğrudan şehirleri etkilemektedir. UN’e göre dünyada kentleşme hızı hızla artmaktadır. 2050 yılında 6,4 milyara ulaşacağı tahmin edilmektedir. UrbClim modeli şehirlerdeki iklim tahminleri için de kullanılmaktadır. İklimin canlıları olumsuz etkilediği Erzurum ili için 2016, 2017 ve 2018 Temmuz aylarının ilk 10 gününe ait kentin iklim verileri UrbClim modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu çalışma ile dünyada soğuk iklime sahip örnek şehirlerin iklim değişikliğinin belirlenmesinde örnek teşkil edecek, sürdürülebilir ve yaşanabilir kentleşmeyi destekleyecek analiz edilerek enerjinin verimli kullanılması ve peyzaj ile ilgili noktada iklim uyum stratejilerinin üretilmesi amaçlanmaktadır.

Keywords

Gelecek iklim değişikliği, UrbClim, bitkisel tasarım, iklim modeli, Erzurum

Project Number

Project No: 119O479

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