A Test of the Markov Prediction Model: The Case of Isparta

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: Özel Sayı, 114 - 128, 30.04.2022

Jesugbemi Olaoye Ajiboye , Şirin Gülcen Eren , Andrew Ayangeaor Ugese

https://doi.org/10.30785/mbud.1024036

Abstract

Projections and predictions of urban growth provide information that can lead to a certain level of preparedness for making cities resilient and sustainable. To ascertain the degree of confidence in predicting urban growth, this paper back-tests the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Prediction Model (PM) by comparing the results of the model for 2010 and 2020 with the actual land-use patterns and growth of Isparta for the same years. The data used are Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The images were classified and used to perform the CA-Markov PM. The findings show that successive changes in land use in Isparta display average proximity to the CA-Markov PM results, with strong positive correlations of 0.8559 in 2010 and 0.8494 in 2020. It is therefore attested that amongst other models the CA-Markov PM can be used as a mathematical model for simulating urban growth in Isparta.

Keywords

City planning, urban growth, cellular automata, Markov prediction model, RS & GIS, Isparta

Thanks

The authors acknowledged the comments from anonymous reviewers. The article complies with national and international research and publication ethics. Ethics committee permission was not required for the study. This article was presented in the “IArcSAS” 1st International Architectural Science and Application Symposium on 27-29 October 2021 as an abstract. It was later expanded for this Journal.

Markov Tahmin Modelinin Testi: Isparta Örneği

Abstract

Kentsel büyüme ve arazi kullanımı değişikliklerinin öngörülmesi ve tahmini, kentlerin dayanıklı ve sürdürülebilir hale getirilmesinde belirli düzeyde hazırlıklı olmayı sağlayan bilgiler sunar. Kentsel büyümeyi ve arazi kullanım değişikliklerini tahmin etmede modellerin kullanımının uygunluk düzeyini tespit etmek için bu makale, 2010 ve 2020 yılları için Hücresel Otomatlar (CA)-Markov Tahmin Modelini (PM) Isparta kentinin gerçek arazi kullanım kalıpları ve büyümesinin geriye dönük bir testini aynı yıllar için yapmaktadır. Çalışma için kullanılan veriler 1990, 2000, 2010 ve 2020 Landsat görüntüleridir. Görüntüler sınıflandırılmış ve CA-Markov PM'nin uygulamasında kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Isparta'nın arazi kullanımındaki ardışık değişikliklerin CA-Markov PM sonuçlarıyla ortalama yakınlık derecesine ve sırasıyla 2010 yılı için 0.8559 ve 2020 yılı için 0.8494'lük güçlü bir pozitif korelasyona sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu nedenle; diğer modeller arasından CA-Markov PM'nin, matematiksel bir model olarak, Isparta kentinin kentsel büyümenin simülasyonunda kullanılabileceği belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Şehir planlama, kentsel büyüme, hücresel otomat, Markov tahmin modeli, UA ve CBS, Isparta

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