TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM BÖLGELERİNDE NET GÖÇÜN KONAKLAMA SAYISINA ETKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada literatürde ihmal edilen turizm ve göç ilişkisi panel veri analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda Türkiye’nin en fazla turist çeken illeri (Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, İstanbul, İzmir, Muğla ve Nevşehir) veri alanı olarak ele alınmıştır. Araştırmanın amacı Türkiye’de iller arası net göçün konaklama sayıları üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılmasıdır. 2008-2023 dönemi verileri ile Westerlund Panel Eşbütünleşme, Dumitrescu ve Hurlin Panel Nedensellik, AMG ve CCE Katsayı Tahminci testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular net göçün konaklama değişkeninin nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Katsayı tahminci testi sonuçlarına göre; net göçün Antalya, İstanbul ve Nevşehir’de konaklama üzerindeki etkisi negatif iken Aydın’da katsayı işareti farklıdır. Göçün turizm sektörü üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri göz önüne alındığında, politika yapıcıların göç süreçlerini kontrol etmesi gerektiği sonucuna varılmaktadır.

Keywords

• Turizm Bölgeleri
• Konaklama Sayısı
• Net Göç
• AMG ve CCE Testi

THE EFFECT OF NET MIGRATION ON THE NUMBER OF ACCOMMODATION IN TÜRKİYE'S TOURISM REGIONS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

In this study, the tourism and migration relationship, which has been neglected in literature, has been investigated with panel data analysis. In this context, the provinces (Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, İstanbul, İzmir, Muğla and Nevşehir) that attract the most tourists in Türkiye have been considered as data fields. The aim of the research is to investigate the effect of net migration between provinces in Türkiye on the number of accommodations. In this study, unlike the literature, the relationship in question is analyzed through domestic migration data. Westerlund Panel Cointegration, Dumitrescu and Hurlin Panel Causality, AMG and CCE Coefficient Estimator tests were conducted with the data for the period 2008-2023. As a result of the study, a long-term relationship was determined between the variables. The findings show that net migration is the cause of the accommodation variable. According to the coefficient estimator test results, while the effect of net migration on accommodation is negative in Antalya, Istanbul and Nevşehir, the coefficient sign is different in Aydın. Considering the negative effects of migration on the tourism sector, it is concluded that policy makers should control migration processes.

Keywords

• Tourism Regions
• Number of Accommodation
• Net Migration
• AMG and CCE Test

References

1. Akyol, H., Tekin, Z., Gürlaş, F. ve Karakuş K., (2019). “Türkiye’de Göç ve Turizm Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi”, Karadeniz 2. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi, 23-25 Ağustos 2019, Rize.
2. Baimambet, A., Sagyndyk, A. ve Zhomartova, Z., (2023). Effect of migration on tourism caused by political, economic, and social challenges, (Bachelor’s Theses), Maqsut Narikbayev University.
3. Buzlukçu, C., ve Curkan, S. C. (2022). “Düzensiz göçün tatil destinasyonu üzerindeki etkilerini belirlemeye yönelik nitel bir araştırma”, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (53), 277-298. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1145134
4. Coşkun, K., ve Büyükşalvarcı, A. (2023). “Turizm ve Göç: Antalya İli Örneği”, International Journal of Social and Humanities Sciences Research (JSHSR), 10(94), 806-812. https://doi.org/10.26450/jshsr.3588
5. Çelik Uğuz, S., (2012). “Göç ve turizm: Türkiye-Almanya örneği”, Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(19), 177-185.
6. Dimanche, F., ve MacDonald, C. (2020), “Immigration and labor in tourism: the case of Canada”, 2020 Travel and Tourism Research Association İnternational Conference (16-18 June 2020), University of Massachusetts Amherst Publishing, BC. Canada, pp. 1-14.
7. Djelti, S., Ahmed, M. H., ve Guellil, M. S. (2021). “Migration networks and the Moroccan tourism: A panel data analysis”. Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa, 32, 130-147. https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.4482
8. Dwyer, L.I.B., Murphy, P. ve Forsyth, P., (1993), The Impact of Migration on Tourism Flows to and from Australia, University of Sydney Publishing, Australia.

9. Dwyer, L., Seetaram, N., Forsyth, P., ve King, B. (2014). “Is the migration-tourism relationship only about VFR?”, Annals of tourism research, 46, 130-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2014.03.009
10. Eberhardt, M., (2012), “Estimating Panel Time-Series Models with Heterogeneous Slopes”, The Stata Journal, 12(1), 61-71. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1201200105
11. Feng, K., ve Page, S. J. (2000). “An exploratory study of the tourism, migration–immigration nexus: Travel experiences of Chinese residents in New Zealand”, Current Issues in tourism, 3(3), 246-281. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500008667875
12. Karagöz, K., (2023). “Impact of Migration on Tourism Flows: A Cross-sectional Analysis”, Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 10 (1), 133-147.
13. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı (KTB), (2024), Yatırım ve İşletmeler Genel Müdürlüğü, Konaklama İstatistikleri, Erişim Adresi: https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-201126/yillik-bultenler.html adresinden 30 Eylül 2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
14. Massidda, C., ve Piras, R., (2015). “Does internal migration affect Italian domestic tourism? A panel data analysis”, Tourism Economics, 21 (3), 581-600. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0362
15. Mortet, S., Nadi, M. ve Djallam, K. (2021). “Tourism and migration nexus, understanding the relationship between the two phenomena through MLT and TLM theories”. GMFAMI editions. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14394/49224
16. Moufakkir, O. (2015). “The stigmatized tourist”, Annals of Tourism Research, 53, 17-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2015.04.004
17. Pesaran, M.H., (2006), “Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure”, Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
18. Přívarová, M., Martincová, M., Trnovský, K. ve Hačár, D., (2022). “Labour migration and tourism flows: The case of the EU”, Journal of Tourism and Services, 13(24). https://doi.org/10.29036/jots.v13i24.374
19. Provenzano, D. (2020). “The migration–tourism nexus in the EU28”. Tourism Economics, 26(8), 1374-1393. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620909994
20. Salvà-Tomàs, P. A., (2002). Foreign immigration and tourism development in Spain’s Balearic Islands. In Tourism and migration: New relationships between production and consumption (pp. 119-134). Dordrecht: Springer, Netherlands.
21. Santana-Gallego, M. ve Paniagua, J. (2022). “Tourism and migration: Identifying the channels with gravity models”, Tourism Economics, 28(2), 394-417. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620972597
22. Sarı, Ö., ve Meydan Uygur, S. (2024). “A research on the relationship between tourism and migration”, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 7(1), 523-540. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHTI-09-2022-0431
23. Seetaram, N., ve Dwyer, L. (2009). “Immigration and tourism demand in Australia: A panel data analysis”. Anatolia, 20(1), 212-222. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2009.10518905
24. Seeteram, N., (2010). “A dynamic panel data analysis of the immigration and tourism Nexus”, Monash University Department of Economics, Discussion paper 39, 10.
25. Songur, Y.D. (2017). “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Dış Ticaret’in Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla Üzerine Etkisi: Avrasya Ülkeleri Örneği”, Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2(2), 117-133. https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.277502
26. Toker, A., ve Kozak, N. (2020). “The role of tourism related migrations on sociocultural change: The case of Didyma”. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR), 8(2), 393-418. https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.753791
27. Tsartas, P., Kyriakaki, A., Stavrinoudis, T., Despotaki, G., Doumi, M., Sarantakou, E., ve Tsilimpokos, K. (2020). “Refugees and tourism: A case study from the islands of Chios and Lesvos, Greece”, Current Issues in Tourism, 23(11), 1311-1327. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1632275
28. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TUİK), (2024), İllerin Aldığı, Verdiği Göç, Net Göç ve Net Göç Hızı, Genel Nüfus Sayımları – ADNKS, Erişim Adresi: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/DownloadIstatistikselTablo?p=oFFEIywbXJaIB912Up1yO4nRXvI1UFEnG5ARErY62yxqN1aabrS2VJ/Q8TwHyufQ adresinden 30 Eylül 2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
29. Uluslararası Çalışma Örgütü (ILO), (2010), Uluslararası emek göçü: Hak temelli bir yaklaşım ILO, Cenevre, CH.
30. UNWTO (2009), Tourism and Migration—Exploring the Relationship between Two Global Phenomena, World Tourism Organization Publishing, Madrid.
31. Westerlund, J. (2007). “Testing for error correction in panel data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x