TÜRKİYE’NİN TURİZM BÖLGELERİNDE NET GÖÇÜN KONAKLAMA SAYISINA ETKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada literatürde ihmal edilen turizm ve göç ilişkisi panel veri analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda Türkiye’nin en fazla turist çeken illeri (Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, İstanbul, İzmir, Muğla ve Nevşehir) veri alanı olarak ele alınmıştır. Araştırmanın amacı Türkiye’de iller arası net göçün konaklama sayıları üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılmasıdır. 2008-2023 dönemi verileri ile Westerlund Panel Eşbütünleşme, Dumitrescu ve Hurlin Panel Nedensellik, AMG ve CCE Katsayı Tahminci testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular net göçün konaklama değişkeninin nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Katsayı tahminci testi sonuçlarına göre; net göçün Antalya, İstanbul ve Nevşehir’de konaklama üzerindeki etkisi negatif iken Aydın’da katsayı işareti farklıdır. Göçün turizm sektörü üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri göz önüne alındığında, politika yapıcıların göç süreçlerini kontrol etmesi gerektiği sonucuna varılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm Bölgeleri
• Konaklama Sayısı
• Net Göç
• AMG ve CCE Testi

THE EFFECT OF NET MIGRATION ON THE NUMBER OF ACCOMMODATION IN TÜRKİYE'S TOURISM REGIONS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

In this study, the tourism and migration relationship, which has been neglected in literature, has been investigated with panel data analysis. In this context, the provinces (Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, İstanbul, İzmir, Muğla and Nevşehir) that attract the most tourists in Türkiye have been considered as data fields. The aim of the research is to investigate the effect of net migration between provinces in Türkiye on the number of accommodations. In this study, unlike the literature, the relationship in question is analyzed through domestic migration data. Westerlund Panel Cointegration, Dumitrescu and Hurlin Panel Causality, AMG and CCE Coefficient Estimator tests were conducted with the data for the period 2008-2023. As a result of the study, a long-term relationship was determined between the variables. The findings show that net migration is the cause of the accommodation variable. According to the coefficient estimator test results, while the effect of net migration on accommodation is negative in Antalya, Istanbul and Nevşehir, the coefficient sign is different in Aydın. Considering the negative effects of migration on the tourism sector, it is concluded that policy makers should control migration processes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism Regions
• Number of Accommodation
• Net Migration
• AMG and CCE Test

Kaynakça

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