Türkiye’de Bölgesel Kapsayıcı Büyüme: Ölçüm, Yapısal Belirleyiciler ve Maliye Politikası Çıkarımları

Abstract

Bu çalışma, çok boyutlu bir bölgesel Kapsayıcı Büyüme (KB) endeksi oluşturarak, 2007–2023 dönemi için Türkiye’nin NUTS-1 bölgelerinde ekonomik büyümenin ne ölçüde kapsayıcı olduğunu değerlendirmektedir. Endeks; gelir, istihdam, yoksulluk ve eşitsizlik, toplumsal cinsiyet farkları, beşerî sermaye, altyapı ve sosyal koruma göstergelerini bir araya getirmektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de bölgesel düzeyde kapsayıcı büyümeye ilişkin bugüne kadarki en kapsamlı uzun dönemli değerlendirmeyi sunarak alt-ulusal literatürdeki önemli bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Bulgular, batı ve metropol bölgelerin sürekli olarak daha yüksek KB skorları elde ettiğini, doğu bölgelerinin ise kademeli iyileşmelere rağmen en alt sıralarda yer aldığını göstermektedir. Korelasyon ve ayrıştırma analizleri, KB’deki bölgesel farklılıkların temel altyapı eksikliklerinden ziyade sağlık, eğitim, sosyal koruma, dijital altyapı ve istihdam piyasasındaki farklılıklardan kaynaklandığını göstermektedir. Bu mekânsal eşitsizliklerin azaltılması, bölgesel olarak farklılaştırılmış mali tevzin mekanizmaları, sosyal yatırım odaklı kamu harcamaları ve hedefli yeniden dağıtım transferlerini gerektirir. Bu çalışma, ekonomik performansı çok boyutlu sosyal refah sonuçlarıyla ilişkilendiren analitik bir çerçeve sunmakta, bölgesel duyarlılığa sahip KB stratejilerinin geliştirilmesini sağlayacak bir kamu politikası perspektifi sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Kapsayıcı büyüme
• bölgesel eşitsizlikler
• İBBS-1 bölgeleri
• maliye politikası

Regional Inclusive Growth in Türkiye: Measurement, Drivers and Fiscal Policy Implications

Abstract

This study evaluates the inclusiveness of economic growth across NUTS-1 regions of Türkiye for the period 2007–2023 by constructing a multidimensional regional Inclusive Growth (IG) index. The index combines indicators of income, employment, poverty and inequality, gender gaps, human capital, infrastructure, and social protection. The study provides the most extensive longitudinal assessment of regional IG in Türkiye to date, addressing a significant gap in the sub-national literature. The findings show that western and metropolitan regions consistently achieve higher IG scores, while eastern regions remain at the bottom despite gradual improvement. Correlation and decomposition analyses show that regional disparities in IG are driven less by basic infrastructure gaps and more by differences in health, education, social protection, digital infrastructure, and the labor market. Reducing these spatial inequalities requires regionally differentiated fiscal equalization, public spending on social investment, and targeted redistributive transfers. This study presents an analytical framework that links economic performance to multidimensional social welfare outcomes and offers a public policy perspective that will enable the development of regionally sensitive IG strategies.

Keywords

• Inclusive growth
• regional disparities
• NUTS-1 regions
• fiscal policy

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