Türkiye’de Bölgesel Kapsayıcı Büyüme: Ölçüm, Yapısal Belirleyiciler ve Maliye Politikası Çıkarımları

Öz

Bu çalışma, çok boyutlu bir bölgesel Kapsayıcı Büyüme (KB) endeksi oluşturarak, 2007–2023 dönemi için Türkiye’nin NUTS-1 bölgelerinde ekonomik büyümenin ne ölçüde kapsayıcı olduğunu değerlendirmektedir. Endeks; gelir, istihdam, yoksulluk ve eşitsizlik, toplumsal cinsiyet farkları, beşerî sermaye, altyapı ve sosyal koruma göstergelerini bir araya getirmektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de bölgesel düzeyde kapsayıcı büyümeye ilişkin bugüne kadarki en kapsamlı uzun dönemli değerlendirmeyi sunarak alt-ulusal literatürdeki önemli bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Bulgular, batı ve metropol bölgelerin sürekli olarak daha yüksek KB skorları elde ettiğini, doğu bölgelerinin ise kademeli iyileşmelere rağmen en alt sıralarda yer aldığını göstermektedir. Korelasyon ve ayrıştırma analizleri, KB’deki bölgesel farklılıkların temel altyapı eksikliklerinden ziyade sağlık, eğitim, sosyal koruma, dijital altyapı ve istihdam piyasasındaki farklılıklardan kaynaklandığını göstermektedir. Bu mekânsal eşitsizliklerin azaltılması, bölgesel olarak farklılaştırılmış mali tevzin mekanizmaları, sosyal yatırım odaklı kamu harcamaları ve hedefli yeniden dağıtım transferlerini gerektirir. Bu çalışma, ekonomik performansı çok boyutlu sosyal refah sonuçlarıyla ilişkilendiren analitik bir çerçeve sunmakta, bölgesel duyarlılığa sahip KB stratejilerinin geliştirilmesini sağlayacak bir kamu politikası perspektifi sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kapsayıcı büyüme
• bölgesel eşitsizlikler
• İBBS-1 bölgeleri
• maliye politikası

Regional Inclusive Growth in Türkiye: Measurement, Drivers and Fiscal Policy Implications

Öz

This study evaluates the inclusiveness of economic growth across NUTS-1 regions of Türkiye for the period 2007–2023 by constructing a multidimensional regional Inclusive Growth (IG) index. The index combines indicators of income, employment, poverty and inequality, gender gaps, human capital, infrastructure, and social protection. The study provides the most extensive longitudinal assessment of regional IG in Türkiye to date, addressing a significant gap in the sub-national literature. The findings show that western and metropolitan regions consistently achieve higher IG scores, while eastern regions remain at the bottom despite gradual improvement. Correlation and decomposition analyses show that regional disparities in IG are driven less by basic infrastructure gaps and more by differences in health, education, social protection, digital infrastructure, and the labor market. Reducing these spatial inequalities requires regionally differentiated fiscal equalization, public spending on social investment, and targeted redistributive transfers. This study presents an analytical framework that links economic performance to multidimensional social welfare outcomes and offers a public policy perspective that will enable the development of regionally sensitive IG strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inclusive growth
• regional disparities
• NUTS-1 regions
• fiscal policy

Kaynakça

1. ADB (2011). Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2011: framework of inclusive growth indicators, special supplement. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/42976/ki2011-special-supplement.pdf
2. ADB (2014). Framework of inclusive growth indicators 2014-key indicators for Asia and the Pacific. special supplement. Metro Manila: Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/42813/ki2014-special-supplement_2.pdf
3. Ali, I.; Son, H. H. (2007). Defining and measuring inclusive growth: application to the Philippines. Asian Development Bank ERD Working Paper Series, No: 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4921572
4. Anand, R.; Mishra, S.; Peiris, S. J. (2013). Inclusive growth: measurement and determinants. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/135, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Inclusive-Growth-Measurement-and-Determinants-40613
5. Avcı, S.; Tonus, Ö. (2020). Kapsayıcı büyümenin ölçülmesi: Türkiye örneği. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 9(4), 277-298. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sid/issue/59766/861984
6. Berber, M.; Yıldız, B.; Yılmaz, M. S. (2024). Türkiye’de bölgesel düzeyde kapsayıcı büyüme endeksi. Gazi İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(1), 158-178. https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2024.10.1.010
7. Bocutoğlu, E. (2017). Kuruluşunun 20. yılında sürdürülebilir kapsayıcı büyüme açısından D-8 İktisadi İşbirliği Örgütü üye devletlerinin mevcut durumu: Dünya Ekonomik Forumu verileri ile bir değerlendirme. Emek ve Toplum, 6(15), 186-212. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/337636
8. Can, Z. G.; Can, U.; Bal, H. (2019). Kapsayıcı büyüme ve küreselleşme: Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası Avrasya Ekonomileri Konferansı, Gazimagusa, Kıbrıs (KKTC), 11-13 Haziran 2019, 197-203. https://congress.avekon.org/papers/2277.pdf

9. De Mello, L.; Dutz, M. A. (ed.). (2012). Promoting inclusive growth: challenges and policies. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264168305-en
10. Deniz Karakoyun, H.; Yorulmaz, S. E. (2024). From the perspective of inclusive growth, the examination of Türkiye’s economic growth after 2002. Pursuing sustainable development goals. The performance of Türkiye in the centennial of the republic içinde, Eds. Engin Balın, B.; Mumcu Akın, H. D.; Karagöz Özenç, F.; Garan, Ö. Istanbul: Istanbul University Press, 307-341. DOI:10.26650/B/SS10.2024.013.012.
11. Dörffel, C.; Schuhmann, S. (2022). What is inclusive development? Introducing the Multidimensional Inclusiveness Index. Social Indicators Research, 162, 1117–1148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02860-y
12. EC (2010). Europe 2020 – a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2010:2020:FIN:en:PDF
13. Hakimian, H. (2013). The search for inclusive growth in North Africa: a comparative approach. African Development Bank, Economic Brief. Access address: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Economic_Brief_-_The_Search_for_Inclusive_Growth_in_North_Africa-_A_Comparative_Approach.pdf
14. Hakimian, H. (2016). Measuring inclusive growth: From theory to applications in North Africa. African Development Bank, North Africa Policy Series Working Paper, https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/measuring-inclusive-growth-from-theory-to-applications-in-north-africa-16618
15. Ianchovichina, E.; Lundstrom, S. (2009). Inclusive growth analytics framework and application. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, No: 4851. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/771771468180864543
16. ICTA (2025). Communication services statistics, https://www.btk.tr/iletisim-hizmetleri-istatistikleri
17. IMF (2017). Fostering inclusive growth. https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2017/062617.pdf
18. Jiang, A.; Chen, C.; Ao, Y.; Zhou, W. (2022). Measuring the inclusive growth of rural areas in China. Applied Economics, 54(32), 3695-3708, DOI:10.1080/00036846.2021.1923640.
19. Keskin, N.; Abuk Duygulu, A. (2024). Türkiye’s inclusive growth performance. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 14(1), 467-504. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13933504
20. Klasen, S. (2010). Measuring and monitoring inclusive growth: multiple definitions, open questions, and some constructive proposals. Metro Manila: Asian Development Bank, Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, No: 12. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28492/adb-wp12-measuring-inclusive-growth.pdf
21. Lopes, C. (2012). Economic growth and inequality: the new post-Washington consensus. RCCS Annual Review [Online], 4, 69-85, DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/rccsar.426
22. McKinley, T. (2010). Inclusive growth criteria and indicators: an inclusive growth Index for diagnosis of country progress. Metro Manila: Asian Development Bank, Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, No: 11. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28493/adb-wp14-inclusive-growth-criteria.pdf
23. Mikheeva, N. (2020). Qualitative aspect of the regional growth in Russia: Inclusive development index. Regional Science Policy and Practice, 12, 611-626. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12289
24. Mitra, A.; Das, D. (2018). Inclusive growth: economics as if people mattered. Global Business Review, 19(3), 756-770. DOI: 10.1177/0972150917713840
25. Mlachila, M.; Tapsoba, R.; Tapsoba, S. J. A. (2016). A quality of growth index for developing countries: a proposal. Social Indicators Research, 134, 675-710. DOI: 10.1007/s11205-016-1439-6
26. Murat, D.; Güzel, S. (2022). Determining the inclusive development performances of the BRICS countries and Turkiye with MULTIMOORA. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 17(2), 535-560, DOI: 10.17153/oguiibf.1063414
27. OECD (2018). Opportunities for all. A framework for policy action on inclusive growth. OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264301665-en
28. Prabowo, D. H.; Maski, G.; Santoso, D. B. (2022). Fostering inclusive growth in Indonesia: Evidence from panel regression analysis. Journal of International Conference Proceedings, 5(2), 139-149. DOI: 10.32535/jicp.v5i2.1680
29. Rytova, E.; Gutman, S.; Sousa, C. (2021). Regional inclusive development: An assessment of Russian regions. Sustainability, 13, 5773. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13115773
30. Saad-Filho, A. (2011). Growth, poverty and inequality: policies and debates from the (post-) Washington consensus to inclusive growth. Indian Journal of Human Development, 5(2), 321-344. DOI: 10.1177/0973703020110202
31. Sabir, S. & Qamar, M. (2019). Fiscal policy, institutions and inclusive growth: Evidence from the developing Asian countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 46(6), 822-837.
32. Sharafutdinov, R. I.; Akhmetshin, E. M.; Polyakova, A. G.; Gerasimov, V. O.; Shpakova, R. N.; Mikhailova, M. V. (2019). Inclusive growth: A dataset on key and institutional foundations for inclusive development of Russian regions. Data in Brief, 23, 103864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2019.103864
33. Soyyigit, S.; Elverdi, S. (2021). Türkiye'de İBBS düzey 1 bölgelerinde kapsayıcı büyüme açısından yakınsamanın incelenmesi. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 35, 59-81. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2021.35.967983
34. SSI (2025). Statistics, https://net.sgk.gov.tr/SgkVeriV2/
35. Sun, C., Liu, L.; Tang, Y. (2018). Measuring the inclusive growth of China’s coastal regions. Sustainability, 10, 2863; doi:10.3390/su10082863.
36. Taşkın, T. (2014). GDP growth in Türkiye: inclusive or not? Central Bank Review, 14(2), 31-64. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/781de33b-b7d0-4182-a0d3-8bf4858d39a3/May14-3.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-781de33b-b7d0-4182-a0d3-8bf4858d39a3-m3fw4Il
37. TURKSTAT (2025). Regional Statistics. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/bolgeselistatistik/sorguGiris.do
38. UNCTAD (2019). Inclusive growth of the Eurasian Economic Union member states: assessments and opportunities. http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_makroec_pol/Documents/Inclusive_growth_in_EAEU_Member.pdf
39. UNCTAD (2023). Stark contrasts in inclusive growth-progress towards equal opportunities needed everywhere. https://sdgpulse.unctad.org/inclusive-growth/
40. UNCTAD (2025). Inclusive growth index (IGI) analytical. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/dataviewer/US.InclusiveGrowth
41. UNDP (2017). UNDP’s strategy for inclusive and sustainable growth. New York: United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/UNDPs%20Inclusive%20and%20Sustainable%20Growth-final.pdf
42. Veneri, P. & Murtin, F. (2016). Where is inclusive growth happening? Mapping multi-dimensional living standards in OECD regions. OECD Statistics Working Papers, No. 2016/01, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jm3nptzwsxq-en
43. WEF (2015). The inclusive growth and development report 2015-insight report. Geneva: World Economic Forum. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forum_IncGrwth.pdf
44. WEF (2018). The inclusive development index 2018-summary and data highlights. Geneva: World Economic Forum. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forum_IncGrwth_2018.pdf
45. World Bank (2023). Shared prosperity: Monitoring inclusive growth. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/global-database-of-shared-prosperity
46. Zouhar, Y., Jellema, J., Lustig, N. & Trabelsi, M. (2021). Public expenditure and inclusive growth. A survey. IMF Working Paper, WP/21/83.