Selection of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle Using Expected Value Analysis

Year 2018, , 1418 - 1422, 01.10.2018

Şenol Gülgönül , Nedim Sözbir

https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.346597

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Selection of launch
vehicle for a geostationary satellite is an important decision for satellite
operators. Depending on only to the cost of the launcher may result unexpected
consequences. Lifetime of the satellite is determined by the orbit parameters
of the launcher. Success probability of the launcher can be deduced
statistically by previous launches or using the insurance rate of the market
for the selected launcher.  Insurance
rate will be used in this study, which is also added to the cost of the
satellite project besides satellite and launcher costs. Design life time of
communication satellites are currently 15 years, means that manufacturer
warrant the operation of the satellite for 15 years via performance incentive
or warranty payback mechanisms. But satellites continue to generate revenues
during their maneuver lifetime, which is more than 15 years. Expected value
analysis is a powerful tool to include probabilistic nature of satellite
projects. Satellite and launch costs, insurance rate and lifetime parameters
will be utilized in expected value analysis to be able to select the best
launcher for a given satellite program.

Keywords

geostationary satellite, expected value analysis, launch vehicle selection

References

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