Tourist Inflows; Accommodation Prices and Exchange Rates: A Causality Analysis for Turkey

Year 2019, , 11 - 24, 30.04.2019

Sertaç Hopoğlu , Hakan Eryüzlü

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.466497

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The study
investigates the effects of accommodation prices and exchange rates on the
number of tourists visiting Turkey for the period 2005:1-2018:6. Monthly
accommodation price index and monthly average nominal exchange rates of the Turkish
Lira against the currencies of important source countries are used as
independent variables. Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap causality test and
asymmetric causality approach developed by Hatemi-J (2012) are used for the
eresearch. Findings reveal a symmetric causality relationship from
accommodation prices to the number of tourists at 10% significance level. There
is also a symmetric causality relationships running from the number of visitors
and to each of Euro and Pound exchange rates. The only asymmetric causality
relationship found runs from the negative shocks in number of visitors to
positive shocks in Pound exchange rates. Results implicate careful pricing of
accommodation services and inclusion of Pound/TL rate in marketing strategies
for potential tourists from the UK in order for Turkey to have a sustainable
tourist inflow. 

Keywords

Turkey, Tourist Inflow, Accommodation Prices, Exchange Rates

Turist Akışı, Konaklama Fiyatları ve Döviz Kurları: Türkiye İçin Bir Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Çalışmada konaklama fiyatları ve döviz kurlarının Türkiye’yi
ziyaret eden turist sayılarına etkisi 2005:1-2018:6 dönemi için
araştırılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenler olarak aylık konaklama fiyat endeksi ve
Türk Lirası’nın Türkiye’nin önemli kaynak pazarlarının paralarına karşı aylık
ortalama nominal kurları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak Hacker &
Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi ve seriler arasında asimetrik nedensellik analizleri için Hatemi-J(2012)  bootstrap asimetrik nedensellik testi
uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre
konaklama fiyatları ve Türkiye’ye olan turist akışı arasında %10 anlamlılık
düzeyinde simetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ziyaretçi sayılarından Euro
ve Pound kurlarına doğru simetrik nedensellik bulunmuştur. Çalışmada sadece
ziyaretçi sayısındaki negatif şoklar ve Pound kurundaki pozitif şoklar arasında
asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Bu bulgulara göre Türkiye’ye
olan turist akışının sürdürülebilir olması için konaklama fiyatlarına dikkat
edilmesi ve özellikle Birleşik Krallık’tan gelecek potansiyel turistler için
pazarlama stratejileri üretirken Pound/TL kurunun dikkate alınması
gerekmektedir. 

Keywords

Türkiye, Turist akışı, Konaklama fiyatları, Döviz kurları

References

• Arellano, M. and S. Bond, (1991). “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58: 277-297.
• Arellano, M. and O. Bover, (1995). “Another Look at the Instrumental Variables Estimation of Error-Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68: 29-51.
• Agiomirgianakis, D., D.Serenis and N.Tsounis (2015). “Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Tourist Flows into Iceland”, Paper presented at International Conference on Applied Economics, ICOAE 2015, 2-4 July 2015, Kazan, Russia, Procedia Economics and Finance, 24(2015): 25-34.
• Aydın, A., B. Darıcı ve H.M. Taşçı (2015). “Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 45 (Ocak-Haziran): 143-177.
• Bai, J., C. Kao and S. Ng; (2009), “Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends”, Journal of Econometrics, 149: 82-99.
• Cheng, K.M., H.Kim and H.Thompson (2013). “The real exchange rate and the balance of trade in US tourism”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 25 (2013): 122-128
• Çeken, H., L. Ateşoğlu, T. Dalgın ve L. Karadağ (2008). “Turizm Talebine Bağlı Olarak Uluslar Arası Turizm Hareketlerindeki Gelişmeler”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(26): 071-085.
• De Vita, G. (2014). “The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows”, Tourism Management, 45 (2014): 226-233.
• De Vita, G. and K.S.Kyaw (2013). “Role of the Exchange Rate in Tourism Demand”, Annals of Tourism Research, 43: 624-627.
• Dickey, D. and W. Fuller (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
• Dincer, M.Z., F.I. Dincer and M. Ustaoglu (2015). “Reel Effective Exchange Rate Volatilities Impact on Tourism Sector in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis of 2003-2014”, paper presented at the 2nd Global Conference on Business, Economics, Management and Tourism, 30-31 October 2014, Prague, Czech Republic, Procedia Economics and Finance, 23(2015): 1000-1008.
• Dogru, T., E. Sirakaya-Turk and G.I. Crouch (2017). “Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence”, Tourism Management,60 (2017): 47-55.
• Dritsakis, N. (2004). “Cointegration Analysis of German and British Tourism Demand for Greece”, Tourism Management, 25: 111-119.
• Eilat, Y., and L. Einav, (2004). “Determinants of international tourism: A three-dimensional panel data analysis”. Applied Economics, 36(12): 1315-1327. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368404000180897.
• Granger, C.W.J., and G. Yoon, (2002). “Hidden cointegration”. University of California, San Diego, Department of Econometrics, Working Paper 2002-02.
• Habibi, F. and H. Abbasinejad (2011). “Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia”, Iranian Economic Review, 15(29).
• Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). “Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application”. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
• Hatemi-J, A., (2012). “Asymmetric tests for causality with an application”, Empirical Economics, 43:447-456.
• Hutchinson, M., (2017). “An Investigation of the Determinants of Tourism Demand to Saint Lucia”, Ministry of Finance, Research and Policy Unit, March 2017. https://www.finance.gov.lc/resources/download/2056
• Icoz, O., M. Kozak, and T. Var, (1998). “Tourism demand in Turkey”. Annals of Tourism Research, 25: 236–240.
• Johansen, S., (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Co-integration Vectors”, Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12:231-254.
• Johansen, S. and K. Juselius, (1990). “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210.
• Kao, C. (1999). “Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data”. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1):1-44.
• Karataş, M. ve S. Babür (2013). “Gelişen Dünya’da Turizm Sektörünün Yeri”. KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 15(25): 15-24.
• Kim, J. and C-K, Lee (2017). “Role of tourism price in attracting international tourists: The case of Japanese inbound tourism from South Korea”, Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 6 (2017): 76-83.
• Kuralbayev, A., B. Sevim ve N. Abishev (2017). “Econometrical Analysis of the Demand for Entrance Tourism in Kazakhstan”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2017, 7(1): 262-268.
• Laframboise, N., N.Mwase, J.Park and Y.Zhou (2014). “Revisiting Tourism Flows to the Caribbean: What is Driving Arrivals?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/14/229, December 2014.
• Martins, L.F., Y. Gan and A. Ferreira-Lopes (2017). “An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand”, Tourism Management, 61 (2017): 248-260.
• Mervar, A. and J.E. Payne (2007). “An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates”. Ekonomski Institut Zagreb (EIZ) Working Paper Series. EIZ-WP-0701, Zagreb, February 2007.
• Ongan,S., C. Isik and D. Özdemir (2017). “The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries”, Economies, 5(51). doi:10.3390/economies5040051.
• Pesaran, M.H., (2006). “Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure”. Econometrica, 74: 967-1012.
• Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
• Pham, T.D., S.Nghiem and L.Dwyer (2017). “The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: A dynamic demand analysis”, Tourism Management, 63(2017): 268-276.
• Phillips, P.C.B. and P. Perron (1988). “Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75:335-346.
• Proença, S.A. and E. Soukiazis (2005). “Demand for Tourism in Portugal: A Panel Data Approach”. Centro de Estudos da União Europeia (CEUNEUROP), Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra, Documento de Trabalho/Discussion Paper (February) No.29.
• Sarkım, M. ve H. Terzi (1998). “Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Faktörler: Ülkeler İtibariyle Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, (Ağustos 1998): 47-55.
• Song, H., G.Li, S.F. Witt ve B.Fei (2010). “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: how should demand be measured?”, Tourism Economics, 16(1): 63-81.
• Uysal, M. and J.L. Crompton (1984). “Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey”, Tourism Management, 5(4): 288-297.
• Westerlund, J., (2007). “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69:709-748.
• Yilanci, V., ve Ş. Bozoklu, (2014). “Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”. Ege Academic Review, 14(2).