Research Article

Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield

Number: 1 October 16, 2026

Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield

Abstract

Climate change presents significant risks to worldwide cotton output due to alterations in temperature regimes, an increase in drought frequency, and the exacerbation of pest and disease proliferation. Climate anomalies affect cotton plant productivity, which is highly sensitive to hydrothermal regime. Recent research indicates that contemporary irrigation techniques are crucial for mitigating the adverse impacts of elevated temperatures and water scarcity in the development of climate-resilient cotton genotypes. This study determined the relationship between cotton productivity and climatic conditions using statistical methods with ANOVA, MixedLM and Tukey HSD post-hoc analysis. The analysis results highlight that temperature and precipitation significantly influence productivity, with cotton productivity in certain places being more susceptible to climatic influences. Cotton yield was determined to be statistically significantly affected by a combination of precipitation, air temperature and soil temperature in the majority of the regions where the study was conducted (p < 0.05). The Linear mixed-effects model indicated region-specific structural differences, with climate-regional factors having significant explanatory power. The Tukey HSD post-hoc analysis shown statistically significant differences exclusively across specific regions and years. The findings indicate that cotton output shows significant, although region-specific, sensitivity to climatic conditions, thereby offering a scientific foundation for the formulation of climate-adapted management techniques.

Keywords

References

  1. Arshad, A., Raza, M. A., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L., Wang, X., Ahmed, M., & Habib-Ur-rehman, M. (2021). Impact of climate warming on cotton growth and yields in China and Pakistan: A regional perspective. Agriculture (Switzerland), 11(2), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11020097
  2. Aslanov, H. Ə., & Novruzova, H. X. (2016). Gübrə normalarının optimallaşdırılmasının pambıq bitkisinin vegetativ kütləsində ümumi azot, fosfor və kaliumun toplanmasına təsiri [The effect of optimizing fertilizer rates on the accumulation of total nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in the vegetative mass of the cotton plant]. ADAU-nun Elmi Əsərləri, (2), 50–53.
  3. Bai, Z., Bai, W., Xie, C., Yu, J., Dai, Y., Pei, S., Zhang, F., Li, Y., Fan, J., & Yin, F. (2023). Irrigation depth and nitrogen rate effects on seed cotton yield, fiber quality and water-nitrogen utilization efficiency in southern Xinjiang, China. Agricultural Water Management, 290, 108583. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108583
  4. Chen, X., Qi, Z., Gui, D., Gu, Z., Ma, L., Zeng, F., & Li, L. (2019). Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2. Agricultural Water Management, 222, 231–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.05.030
  5. Dutta, M., & Sharma, N. (2023). Yield prediction and recommendation of crops in the northeastern region using machine learning regression models. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 33(4), 700–708. https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.1321518
  6. C3S. (2019). ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service.
  7. Əsgərova, M. M. (2019). Kür-Araz ovalığının torpaq-iqlim şəraiti [Soil-climate conditions of the Kura-Aras lowland]. ADAU-nun Elmi Əsərləri, 5(2), 9–12.
  8. Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., & Michaelsen, J. (2015). The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations: A new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Scientific Data, 2, 150066. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Field Crops and Pasture Production (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

October 16, 2026

Submission Date

October 8, 2025

Acceptance Date

September 22, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: 1

APA
Babashli, B. (2026). Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 1, 1799188. https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.1799188
AMA
1.Babashli B. Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield. YYU J AGR SCI. 2026;(1):1799188. doi:10.29133/yyutbd.1799188
Chicago
Babashli, Bakhtiyar. 2026. “Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield”. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences, no. 1: 1799188. https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.1799188.
EndNote
Babashli B (October 1, 2026) Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences 1 1799188.
IEEE
[1]B. Babashli, “Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield”, YYU J AGR SCI, no. 1, p. 1799188, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.29133/yyutbd.1799188.
ISNAD
Babashli, Bakhtiyar. “Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield”. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 1 (October 1, 2026): 1799188. https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.1799188.
JAMA
1.Babashli B. Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield. YYU J AGR SCI. 2026;:1799188.
MLA
Babashli, Bakhtiyar. “Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield”. Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences, no. 1, Oct. 2026, p. 1799188, doi:10.29133/yyutbd.1799188.
Vancouver
1.Bakhtiyar Babashli. Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield. YYU J AGR SCI. 2026 Oct. 1;(1):1799188. doi:10.29133/yyutbd.1799188
Creative Commons License
Yuzuncu Yil University Journal of Agricultural Sciences by Van Yuzuncu Yil University Faculty of Agriculture is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.