Orta Doğu Hava Sahası Krizlerinin Avrupa Havacılık Ağında Operasyonel Performans ve Maliyet Baskısı Üzerindeki Yansımaları

Öz

Bu çalışma, Orta Doğu hava sahasındaki jeopolitik gerilimlerin, Avrupa havacılık ağı içindeki operasyonel performansı ve maliyet baskısını sistem düzeyinde nasıl yeniden şekillendirdiğini incelemektedir. EUROCONTROL’ün (2025–2026) haftalık verilerinden yararlanan analiz, trafik hacmi, rötar dinamikleri, rötar nedenleri ve jet yakıtı fiyatlarını bir araya getirerek çok boyutlu bir etki mekanizmasını ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, toplam trafik hacminin nispeten istikrarlı kalmasına rağmen büyüme oranlarının önemli ölçüde zayıfladığını göstermektedir; bu da sistem genişlemesinin talep daralmasından ziyade hava sahası erişilebilirliği tarafından kısıtlandığını düşündürmektedir. Operasyonel performans, özellikle gecikmelerin arttığı dönemlerde bozulmakta olup, hava trafik kontrolü (ATC) kapasitesi ve personel eksikliği gecikmelerin başlıca kaynakları olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Jeopolitik aksaklıklar, Avrupa–Orta Doğu trafik akışlarında %66’ya varan önemli düşüşlere yol açarken, aynı zamanda rota yeniden yapılandırmalarını tetiklemekte ve trafiği alternatif koridorlara kaydırmaktadır. Bu süreç, mevcut kapasite darboğazlarını artırmakta ve ağ genelinde gecikmelerin yayılmasını yoğunlaştırmaktadır. Buna paralel olarak, jet yakıtı fiyatlarındaki keskin artışlar (özellikle kısa bir süre içinde %87’lik bir sıçrama) havayolları için önemli bir maliyet baskısı yaratmaktadır. Genel olarak, çalışma, jeopolitik risklerin havacılığı doğrusal talep şokları yoluyla değil, hava sahası kısıtlamaları, operasyonel kısıtlamalar ve maliyet dinamiklerini içeren birbiriyle bağlantılı, ağ tabanlı mekanizmalar yoluyla etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, jeopolitik belirsizlik altında havacılık performansını anlamada sistem düzeyinde analizin önemini vurgulayarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Havacılık Ağı
• Jeopolitik Risk
• Jet Yakıtı Fiyatları
• Maliyet Baskısı
• Operasyonel Performans

Destekleyen Kurum

Yoktur.

Etik Beyan

Çalışmanın tüm hazırlık aşamalarında etik kurallara uyulduğu yazar tarafından beyan edilir. Aksi bir durumun tespiti hâlinde, Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi herhangi bir sorumluluk kabul etmez ve tüm sorumluluk yazara aittir.

The Impact of Airspace Crises in the Middle East on the Operational Performance and Costs of the European Aviation Network: An Early Assessment

Öz

This study examines system-level patterns in operational performance and cost pressures within the European aviation network during periods of heightened geopolitical tension in Middle Eastern airspace. Using weekly data from EUROCONTROL (2025-2026), the analysis provides a multidimensional, integrated descriptive framework by jointly examining traffic volume, delay dynamics, causes of delays, and jet fuel prices. The findings show that while total traffic volume remains relatively stable, growth rates have weakened, a pattern that coincides with documented airspace accessibility constraints and network reconfiguration. Operational performance deteriorates particularly during periods of increased delays, while ATC capacity/staffing emerges as the predominant reported cause of en-route ATFM delays across the analyzed reporting periods. During periods of heightened geopolitical tensions, Europe-Middle East air traffic flows have declined, and routes have been restructured. These patterns suggest that airspace restrictions and the use of alternative corridors may be related to pressure on existing capacity bottlenecks. In parallel, sharp increases in jet fuel prices coincide with heightened system-level cost pressure. Overall, the study shows that during periods of geopolitical tension, airspace restrictions, operational indicators, and cost dynamics move together in interconnected, system-level patterns.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cost Pressure
• European Aviation Network
• Geopolitical Risk
• Jet Fuel Prices
• Operational Performance

Destekleyen Kurum

None.

Etik Beyan

The author declares that all stages of the study were conducted in accordance with ethical research principles. In the event of any misconduct, Artvin Çoruh University International Journal of Social Sciences assumes no responsibility and all responsibility lies with the author

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