Derleme
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A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 53 - 60, 30.05.2021
https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.849816

Öz

Istanbul earthquakes occur due to tectonic movements in the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault, which is called the Main Marmara Fault and lies under the Sea of Marmara. In the past, Istanbul witnessed many devastating earthquakes. It is possible to reach archive information about the Istanbul earthquakes recorded since the Roman-Byzantine periods. Records show that there were approximately 26 earthquakes that caused destruction in the city during the Byzantine period. The earthquakes of 1509, 1719, 1766, 1894 and 1912 during the Ottoman Empire and the recent earthquake of 1999 caused serious destruction and many casualties in the city. The conducted studies reveal that intense seismic energy has accumulated in the unbroken segments of the Main Marmara Fault in the recent past and a severe earthquake awaits Istanbul. Considering the importance of Istanbul for both our country and the whole world, it is important to prepare the city for before and after the earthquake.

Kaynakça

  • Ambraseys, N. (2001). The earthquake of 1509 in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, revisited. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 91(6), 1397-1416. Ambraseys, N. (2002). The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last 2000 years. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(1), 1-18.
  • Ambraseys, N. N., & Jackson, J. (2000). Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500. Geophysical Journal International, 141(3), F1-F6.
  • Barka, A.A. (1996). Slip distribution along the North Anatolian Fault associated with large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86, 1238–1254.
  • Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory Earthquake Research Institute (B.Ü. KRDAE) Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring and Evaluation Center. (2020). http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/deprem-verileri/yillik-deprem-haritalari/#. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P. E., Eken, T., & Aktar, M. (2013). An earthquake gap south of Istanbul. Nature communications, 4(1), 1-6.
  • Bulut, F., Aktuğ, B., Yaltırak, C., Doğru, A., & Özener, H. (2019). Magnitudes of future large earthquakes near Istanbul quantified from 1500 years of historical earthquakes, present-day microseismicity and GPS slip rates. Tectonophysics, 764, 77-87.
  • Çaktı, E , Şafak, E , Hancılar, U , Şeşetyan, K. (2020). The project of Updating Probable Earthquake Loss Estimates in Istanbul Province. https://depremzemin.ibb.istanbul/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/DEZiM_KANDiLLi_DEPREM-HASAR-TAHMiN_RAPORU.pdf. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • DeVries, P. M., Krastev, P. G., & Meade, B. J. (2016). Geodetically constrained models of viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake triggering along the North Anatolian fault. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 17(7), 2700-2716.
  • Erdik, M. (2013). Earthquake risk in Turkey. Science, 341(6147), 724-725.
  • Ergintav, S. E. M. I. H., Reilinger, R. E., Çakmak, R., Floyd, M., Cakir, Z., Doğan, U., ... & Özener, H. (2014). Istanbul's earthquake hot spots: Geodetic constraints on strain accumulation along faults in the Marmara seismic gap. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(16), 5783-5788.
  • Grand National Assembly of Turkey Report of the Assembly Investigation Commission Established to Investigate the Earthquake Risk and Determine the Measures to be Taken in Earthquake Management. (2010). https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/sirasayi/donem23/yil01/ss549.pdf. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • Houseman, G. A. (2018). Why earthquakes threaten two major European cities: Istanbul and Bucharest. European Review, 26(1), 30-49.
  • Kalafat, D. (2011). “Seismicity and Earthquake Network The Importance of Marmara region”. Turkey 1 Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 11-14.
  • Kalkan, E., Gülkan, P., Öztürk, N. Y., & Çelebı, M. (2008). Seismic hazard in the istanbul metropolitan area: a preliminary re-evaluation. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 12(S2), 151-164.
  • Kundak, S. (2004). Economic Loss Estimation for Earthquake Hazard in Istanbul. 44th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association Regions and Fiscal Federalism 25-29 August 2004, Porto, Portugal
  • Lange, D., Kopp, H., Royer, J.-Y., Henry, P., Çakir, Z., Petersen, F., . . . Özeren, M. S. (2019). Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul. Nature communications, 10(1), 1-9.
  • Le Pichon, X., Chamot‐Rooke, N., Rangin, C., & Sengör, A. (2003). The North Anatolian fault in the sea of marmara. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108(B4).
  • Lostris, B., Yıldız, M. O. (2017). “Recorded Istanbul Earthquakes (MS. 29 - 1999) and Expected Istanbul Earthquake”. Anka Institute. http://ankaenstitusu.com/kaydedilmis-istanbul-depremleri-ms-29-1999-ve-beklenen-istanbul-depremi/. Accessed: October 15, 2020
  • Michigan Technological University. What Are Earthquake Hazards? http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/hazards.html. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich J.H. (2000). Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation. Science, 288(5466), 661–665. doi:10.1126/science.288.5466.661
  • Parsons, T. (2004). Recalculated probability of M≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 109(B5).
  • Sezer, H. (1997). 1894 Examination on a Report on the Istanbul Earthquake. Tarih Araştırmaları Dergisi, 18 (29) , 169-197
  • Stanfor Earth. The science behind earthquakes https://earth.stanford.edu/news/science-behind-earthquakes#gs.k87lnn. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Stein, R.S., Barka, A.A. & Dieterich, J.H. (1997). Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International, 128, 594–604.
  • United States Geological Survey (USGSa). What is an earthquake and what causes them to happen? https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-earthquake-and-what-causes-them-happen?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • United States Geological Survey (USGSb). New Earthquake Hazards Program. https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Ürekli, F. (2010). Osmanlı döneminde İstanbul’da meydana gelen afetlere ilişkin literatür. Türkiye Araştırmaları Literatür Dergisi(16), 101-130.
  • Wikipedia. List of Earthquakes in Turkey. (2020) https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%BCrkiye%27deki_depremler_listesi. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • World Data. Earthquakes in Turkey. https://www.worlddata.info/asia/turkey/earthquakes.php. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Yalçın, H., Gülen, L., & Utkucu, M. (2013). Active fault data base and assessment of earthquake hazard for Turkey and surrounding regions. Bull Earth Sci Appl Res Centre Hacettepe Univ, 34(3), 133-160.
  • Yaltırak, C , Erturaç, M. K , Tüysüz, O , Saki-Yaltırak, K. (2003). Historical earthquakes in the Marmara Sea: their location, magnitude, impact areas and current fracture probabilities, Kuvaterner Workshop 2003
  • Yamamoto, R., Kido, M., Ohta, Y., Takahashi, N., Yamamoto, Y., Pinar, A., . . . Kaneda, Y. (2019). Seafloor geodesy revealed partial creep of the North Anatolian Fault submerged in the Sea of Marmara. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(3), 1268-1275.

İstanbul’u Büyük Bir Deprem Bekliyor: Mini Derleme

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 53 - 60, 30.05.2021
https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.849816

Öz

İstanbul depremleri, Kuzey Anadolu Fayı’nın Ana Marmara Fayı olarak adlandırılan ve Marmara Denizi altında uzanan kuzey kolundaki tektonik hareketler nedeniyle meydana gelmektedir. İstanbul geçmiş dönemlerde çok sayıda yıkıcı depremlere sahne olmuştur. Roma-Bizans dönemlerinden beri kayıt altına alınan İstanbul depremleri konusunda arşiv bilgilerine ulaşmak mümkündür. Kayıtlarda Bizans döneminde şehirde yıkıma neden olan yaklaşık 26 depremin yaşandığı görülmektedir. Osmanlı döneminde meydana gelen 1509, 1719, 1766, 1894 ve 1912 depremleri ve yakın zamanda yaşanan 1999 depremi şehirde ciddi harabiyete ve çok sayıda can kaybına yol açmıştır. Yapılan çalışmalar Ana Marmara Fayı’nın yakın geçmişte kırılmamış segmentlerinde yoğun bir sismik enerji biriktiğini ve İstanbul’u şiddetli bir depremin beklediğini ortaya koymaktadır. İstanbul’un gerek ülkemiz gerek tüm dünya için taşıdığı önem göz önüne alınarak şehrin deprem öncesi ve sonrasına hazırlanması önem arzetmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Ambraseys, N. (2001). The earthquake of 1509 in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, revisited. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 91(6), 1397-1416. Ambraseys, N. (2002). The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last 2000 years. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(1), 1-18.
  • Ambraseys, N. N., & Jackson, J. (2000). Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500. Geophysical Journal International, 141(3), F1-F6.
  • Barka, A.A. (1996). Slip distribution along the North Anatolian Fault associated with large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86, 1238–1254.
  • Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory Earthquake Research Institute (B.Ü. KRDAE) Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring and Evaluation Center. (2020). http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/deprem-verileri/yillik-deprem-haritalari/#. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P. E., Eken, T., & Aktar, M. (2013). An earthquake gap south of Istanbul. Nature communications, 4(1), 1-6.
  • Bulut, F., Aktuğ, B., Yaltırak, C., Doğru, A., & Özener, H. (2019). Magnitudes of future large earthquakes near Istanbul quantified from 1500 years of historical earthquakes, present-day microseismicity and GPS slip rates. Tectonophysics, 764, 77-87.
  • Çaktı, E , Şafak, E , Hancılar, U , Şeşetyan, K. (2020). The project of Updating Probable Earthquake Loss Estimates in Istanbul Province. https://depremzemin.ibb.istanbul/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/DEZiM_KANDiLLi_DEPREM-HASAR-TAHMiN_RAPORU.pdf. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • DeVries, P. M., Krastev, P. G., & Meade, B. J. (2016). Geodetically constrained models of viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake triggering along the North Anatolian fault. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 17(7), 2700-2716.
  • Erdik, M. (2013). Earthquake risk in Turkey. Science, 341(6147), 724-725.
  • Ergintav, S. E. M. I. H., Reilinger, R. E., Çakmak, R., Floyd, M., Cakir, Z., Doğan, U., ... & Özener, H. (2014). Istanbul's earthquake hot spots: Geodetic constraints on strain accumulation along faults in the Marmara seismic gap. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(16), 5783-5788.
  • Grand National Assembly of Turkey Report of the Assembly Investigation Commission Established to Investigate the Earthquake Risk and Determine the Measures to be Taken in Earthquake Management. (2010). https://www.tbmm.gov.tr/sirasayi/donem23/yil01/ss549.pdf. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • Houseman, G. A. (2018). Why earthquakes threaten two major European cities: Istanbul and Bucharest. European Review, 26(1), 30-49.
  • Kalafat, D. (2011). “Seismicity and Earthquake Network The Importance of Marmara region”. Turkey 1 Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 11-14.
  • Kalkan, E., Gülkan, P., Öztürk, N. Y., & Çelebı, M. (2008). Seismic hazard in the istanbul metropolitan area: a preliminary re-evaluation. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 12(S2), 151-164.
  • Kundak, S. (2004). Economic Loss Estimation for Earthquake Hazard in Istanbul. 44th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association Regions and Fiscal Federalism 25-29 August 2004, Porto, Portugal
  • Lange, D., Kopp, H., Royer, J.-Y., Henry, P., Çakir, Z., Petersen, F., . . . Özeren, M. S. (2019). Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul. Nature communications, 10(1), 1-9.
  • Le Pichon, X., Chamot‐Rooke, N., Rangin, C., & Sengör, A. (2003). The North Anatolian fault in the sea of marmara. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108(B4).
  • Lostris, B., Yıldız, M. O. (2017). “Recorded Istanbul Earthquakes (MS. 29 - 1999) and Expected Istanbul Earthquake”. Anka Institute. http://ankaenstitusu.com/kaydedilmis-istanbul-depremleri-ms-29-1999-ve-beklenen-istanbul-depremi/. Accessed: October 15, 2020
  • Michigan Technological University. What Are Earthquake Hazards? http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/hazards.html. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Barka, A., Dieterich J.H. (2000). Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation. Science, 288(5466), 661–665. doi:10.1126/science.288.5466.661
  • Parsons, T. (2004). Recalculated probability of M≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 109(B5).
  • Sezer, H. (1997). 1894 Examination on a Report on the Istanbul Earthquake. Tarih Araştırmaları Dergisi, 18 (29) , 169-197
  • Stanfor Earth. The science behind earthquakes https://earth.stanford.edu/news/science-behind-earthquakes#gs.k87lnn. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Stein, R.S., Barka, A.A. & Dieterich, J.H. (1997). Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International, 128, 594–604.
  • United States Geological Survey (USGSa). What is an earthquake and what causes them to happen? https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-earthquake-and-what-causes-them-happen?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • United States Geological Survey (USGSb). New Earthquake Hazards Program. https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Ürekli, F. (2010). Osmanlı döneminde İstanbul’da meydana gelen afetlere ilişkin literatür. Türkiye Araştırmaları Literatür Dergisi(16), 101-130.
  • Wikipedia. List of Earthquakes in Turkey. (2020) https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C3%BCrkiye%27deki_depremler_listesi. (Accessed: October 15, 2020)
  • World Data. Earthquakes in Turkey. https://www.worlddata.info/asia/turkey/earthquakes.php. (Accessed: November 7, 2020)
  • Yalçın, H., Gülen, L., & Utkucu, M. (2013). Active fault data base and assessment of earthquake hazard for Turkey and surrounding regions. Bull Earth Sci Appl Res Centre Hacettepe Univ, 34(3), 133-160.
  • Yaltırak, C , Erturaç, M. K , Tüysüz, O , Saki-Yaltırak, K. (2003). Historical earthquakes in the Marmara Sea: their location, magnitude, impact areas and current fracture probabilities, Kuvaterner Workshop 2003
  • Yamamoto, R., Kido, M., Ohta, Y., Takahashi, N., Yamamoto, Y., Pinar, A., . . . Kaneda, Y. (2019). Seafloor geodesy revealed partial creep of the North Anatolian Fault submerged in the Sea of Marmara. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(3), 1268-1275.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Perihan Şimşek 0000-0002-0216-3968

Abdulkadir Gündüz 0000-0001-8591-9769

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Mayıs 2021
Kabul Tarihi 26 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Şimşek, P., & Gündüz, A. (2021). A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review. Afet Ve Risk Dergisi, 4(1), 53-60. https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.849816
AMA Şimşek P, Gündüz A. A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review. Afet ve Risk Dergisi. Mayıs 2021;4(1):53-60. doi:10.35341/afet.849816
Chicago Şimşek, Perihan, ve Abdulkadir Gündüz. “A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review”. Afet Ve Risk Dergisi 4, sy. 1 (Mayıs 2021): 53-60. https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.849816.
EndNote Şimşek P, Gündüz A (01 Mayıs 2021) A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review. Afet ve Risk Dergisi 4 1 53–60.
IEEE P. Şimşek ve A. Gündüz, “A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review”, Afet ve Risk Dergisi, c. 4, sy. 1, ss. 53–60, 2021, doi: 10.35341/afet.849816.
ISNAD Şimşek, Perihan - Gündüz, Abdulkadir. “A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review”. Afet ve Risk Dergisi 4/1 (Mayıs 2021), 53-60. https://doi.org/10.35341/afet.849816.
JAMA Şimşek P, Gündüz A. A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review. Afet ve Risk Dergisi. 2021;4:53–60.
MLA Şimşek, Perihan ve Abdulkadir Gündüz. “A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review”. Afet Ve Risk Dergisi, c. 4, sy. 1, 2021, ss. 53-60, doi:10.35341/afet.849816.
Vancouver Şimşek P, Gündüz A. A Big Earthquake Awaits Istanbul: Mini Review. Afet ve Risk Dergisi. 2021;4(1):53-60.