ABD İklim Politikası Belirsizliği Endeksi, Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi ve Petrol Fiyatları için Doğrusal Olmayan Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışma, Ocak 2000-Mart 2021 dönemi için ABD iklim politikası belirsizliği, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve petrol fiyatları arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiyi ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Petrol fiyatlarının ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin iklim politikası belirsizliği üzerindeki uzun vadeli ve kısa vadeli dinamik etkileri, Doğrusal Olmayan Sınır Testi (NARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Bulgular, uzun vadede iklim politikası belirsizliği, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve ham petrol fiyatları arasında bir asimetrik eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. İklim politikası belirsizliği, uzun vadede yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve petrol fiyatlarındaki hem olumsuz hem de olumlu değişikliklerden etkilenmektedir. Asimetrik ilişkilerin varlığı, verilerin NARDL modeline uygun olduğunu göstermektedir. NARDL tahmin sonuçları, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimindeki bir artışın iklim politikası belirsizliğini artırırken, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimindeki bir düşüşün de iklim politikası belirsizliğinde uzun vadede bir artışa yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, petrol fiyatlarındaki bir artış iklim politikası belirsizliğinde bir artışa yol açarken, petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüş iklim politikası belirsizliğinde uzun vadede bir azalmaya yol açmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• NARDL
• ABD iklim politikası belirsizliği
• yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi
• petrol fiyatları

A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Approach for U.S. Climate Policy Uncertainty Index, Renewable Energy Consumption, and Oil Prices

Öz

This study aims to reveal the asymmetric relationship among climate policy uncertainty, oil prices, and renewable energy consumption for January 2000-March 2021 in the U.S. The long- and short-run dynamic impacts of oil prices and renewable energy consumption on climate policy uncertainty are mainly examined utilizing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The findings of the study depict that there exists an asymmetric cointegrating relationship between climate policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption, and crude oil prices in the long run. Climate policy uncertainty is affected by both negative and positive variations in renewable energy consumption and oil prices in the long-run period. The presence of asymmetric relations is an indicator of the data is suitable for the NARDL model. The NARDL estimation results reveal that an increment in renewable energy consumption causes an increase in climate policy uncertainty while a decrease in renewable energy consumption also causes an increase in climate policy uncertainty in the long-run period. Further, an increase in oil prices causes an increase in climate policy uncertainty while a reduction in oil prices results in a decrease in the climate policy uncertainty for a long-run period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• NARDL
• U.S. climate policy uncertainty
• renewable energy consumption
• oil prices

Kaynakça

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