Türkiye’deki Birleşme/Devralma İşlemleri ile Makroekonomik Göstergeler Arasındaki İlişkilerin İktisadi Bir Analizi

Öz

Mevcut çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2002-2021 yılları arasında gerçekleşen birleşme ve devralma işlemleri ile makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ikili ilişkilerin mevcudiyeti ve yapısı araştırma konusu yapılmaktadır. Makroekonomik etkileri temsil etmesi bakımından, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi (BIST100), Amerikan doları döviz kuru ve ithalat ile ihracatın toplam sayısal değerinin milli gelire oranı şekilde hesaplanılabilen ticari dışa açıklık oranı dikkate alınmıştır. Birleşme ve devralma işlemlerinin nicel büyüklüğü, ilgili dönemdeki yoğunlaşma faaliyetlerinin toplam işlem değeri temel alınarak elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada, ikili ilişkilerin etüt edilebilmesi amacıyla ilk olarak eşbütünleşme yaklaşımlarından ARDL Sınır Testi kullanılmıştır. Akabinde Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi ve değişkenler arasındaki dinamik etkileşimleri gözlemleyebilmek adına zamanla değişen Granger nedensellik sınamalarından yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, BİST100 ve döviz kuru ile Türkiye’deki yoğunlaşma işlem hacmi arasında incelenen dönemin büyük bir bölümünde pozitif bir ilişki ortaya koymaktadır.Diğer taraftan ticari dışa açıklık oranı için belirli periyotlar hariç olmak üzere istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanılmazken; milli gelirdeki nedensellik ilişkisinin de zamana bağlı olarak farklılaştığı gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Birleşme ve Devralmalar
• Makroekonomik Göstergeler
• Rekabet Hukuku

An Economic Analysis of the Relationships Between Mergers/Acquisitions and Macroeconomic Indicators in Turkey

Öz

This study aims to examine the existence and structure of the multivariate relationship between merger and acquisition transactions and macroeconomic indicators in Turkey between 2002-2021. In order to represent the macroeconomic effects, the gross domestic product, the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index, the US dollar currency, and the commercial trade openness ratio, which can be calculated as the ratio of the total value of imports and exports to national income, were taken into account. The size of mergers and acquisitions is obtained based on the total transaction value of these activities in the relevant period. In the study, ARDL Bound Test, which is one of the cointegration approaches, was first used in order to study the bilateral relations between aforementioned variables. After that, for the purpose of observing the static and dynamic causality relationship between the variables, Toda-Yamamoto and time-varying Granger causality tests were used. Our empirical findings reveal a positive and significant relationship by the stock market index and the exchange rate over the merger and acqusation transactions volume in Turkey for the most of the period examined. On the other hand, while no statistically significant relationship was found for the trade openness ratio except some specific periods, it has been observed that the causality relationship in national income also differs depending on time.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mergers and Acqusitions
• Macroeconomic Environment
• Competition Law

Kaynakça

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