Spatial Panel Model and Kernel Estimation: A Case Study of Interactions in Money Growth

Öz

This paper examines the spatial interaction of monetary policy among the EU and OECD countries from 2007 to 2017, by focusing mainly on the money growth rates of the economies. The effects of economic relationships on money growth have been analyzed using spatial panel models via alternative weight matrices designed to reflect geographic, economic,or institutional proximity. Our spatial analysis of the data revealed the existence of spatial interactions. The results show that there is a spatial interaction between countries in terms of money growth. Any change in money growth within this group of countries has a positive effect on the other countries according to their economic integration or geographical proximity. Moreover, the interaction between trading partners is larger than between geographically or institutionally close partners. On the other hand, we used nonparametric kernel regression to determine the response of money growth to money growth. It turns out that the interaction of money growth with export partners corresponds to an inverse parabolic function.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monetary Policy
• Spatial Model
• Spatial Impact
• Kernel Estimation

Mekansal Panel Model ve Kernel Tahmini: Para Büyümesi Etkileşimleri Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği (AB) ve/veya Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Teşkilatı (OECD) üyesi ülkelerin para büyüme oranları arasındaki mekânsal etkileşim 2007-2017 dönemi için ele alınmaktadır. Ekonomik ilişkilerin para büyümesi üzerindeki etkileri, coğrafi, ekonomik veya kurumsal yakınlığı yansıtmak için tasarlanmış alternatif ağırlık matrisleri aracılığıyla mekânsal panel modelleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, para büyümesi açısından ülkeler arasında mekânsal bir etkileşim olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu ülke grubundaki para arzında meydana gelecek pozitif yönlü herhangi bir değişiklik, ekonomik entegrasyonlarına veya coğrafi yakınlıklarına göre diğer ülkeler üzerinde olumlu bir etki yaratmaktadır sonucu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, ticaret partnerleri arasındaki etkileşim özellikle de ihracat partnerleri arasındaki etkileşim, coğrafi veya kurumsal olarak yakın ortaklar arasındaki etkileşimden daha büyük sonucuna da ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada para büyümesinin para büyümelerine tepkisini belirlemek ve şeklini ortaya koymak adına parametrik olmayan kernel regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Kernel regresyon modeli tahmini sonuçları ise, parasal büyümenin ihracat ortaklarıyla etkileşiminin ters bir parabolik fonksiyona karşılık geldiği ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Politikası
• Mekansal Model
• Mekansal Etki
• Kernel Tahmincisi

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