The Validity Of Twin Deficits Hypothesis In Turkey: A Time-Varying Causality Analysis

Öz

Implementing fiscal policies to ensure domestic and foreign balances together is of vital importance to sustain financial and economic stability. Therefore, investigating the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit is one of the issues debated by popolicymakersnd economists. In this context, the existence of the win deficit hypothesis in Turkey is researched through recursive algorithms used to revaluate the temporal stability of Granger causality for the periods of January 1998-December 2021. The findings from time-varying Granger causality analysis reveal the existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit. This result means the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in Turkey. Also, the temporal changes in the so-called casualty relationships are observed significantly. During the electoral and crisis periods there is the existence of the twin deficit hypothesis wthe hileaccountnt acount targeting policy is implemented during the periods of 2002-2008 and 2015-2021. In the COVID-19 period, a bidirectional asymmetric transmission mechanism between budget deficit andcurrentt account deficit is worked can be stated.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Budget and current account deficits
• Twin deficit hypothesis
• Granger causality
• Time-variation
• Turkey

İkiz Açık Hipotezi Türkiye’de Geçerliliği: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Finansal ve ekonomik istikrarın sürdürülebilirliği açısından iç ve dış dengenin birlikte sağlandığı maliye politikalarının uygulanması son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu nedenle, cari işlemler ile bütçe açıkları arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi politika yapıcılar, araştırmacılar ve ekonomistler arasında tartışılan önemli konulardan biri haline gelmiştir. Bu kapsamda, çalışmada Türkiye için Ocak 1998 – Aralık 2021 döneminde ikiz açık hipotezi, Granger nedenselliğin geçici istikrarını yeniden değerlendirmek amacıyla kullanılan yinelemeli algoritmalar kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Zamanla değişen Granger nedensellik analizden elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de ele alınan dönemde cari işlemler dengesi ve bütçe açığı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de ikiz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Aynı zamanda, nedensellik ilişkisinde anlamlı geçici değişimlerin olduğu gözlenmektedir. Seçim ve kriz dönemlerinde ikiz açık hipotezinin varlığı mevcut iken, 2002-2008 ve 2015-2021 dönemlerinde cari işlemler hedeflemesi politikası uygulanmaktadır. COVID-19 pandemisi döneminde ise, cari işlemler dengesi ve bütçe açığı arasında çift yönlü asimetrik aktarım mekanizmasının işlediği ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cari işlemler ve bütçe açıkları
• İkiz açık hipotezi
• Granger nedensellik
• Zaman değişimi
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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