The Impact of the Interest Rate on Industrial Production During the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Öz

The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth in developed and developing countries was analyzed during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Panel data analysis was implemented for the monthly period between January 2002 and December 2020. The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries in all periods. Moreover, during the 2008 financial crisis, the relationship between the real interest rate and industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries. However, the effect of the real interest rate was stronger in developed countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth has been much stronger than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Its effect has also been more significant in developed countries. The result indicates that during the crisis and the pandemic, a decrease in the real interest rate plays an important role in stimulating industrial production. Pulling the real interest rate down can be an effective tool for promoting growth and can lessen negative consequences in economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, as the inflation rate is very low in developed countries, the risk of depreciation in the exchange rate in developing countries can be limited following expansionary monetary policy. Hence, other alternatives such as government intervention into economic activities by fiscal policy increase in importance beside monetary policy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• 2008 financial crisis
• COVID-19 pandemic
• industrial production
• interest rate
• panel data analysis

2008 Finansal Krizi ve COVID-19 Salgını Sırasında Faiz Oranının Sanayi Üretimi Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde reel faiz oranının sanayi üretimi büyümesi üzerindeki etkisi, 2008 finansal krizi ve COVID-19 salgını döneminde analiz edilmiştir. Panel veri analizi Ocak 2002 ile Aralık 2020 arasındaki aylık dönem için uygulanmıştır. Reel faiz oranının sanayi üretimi büyümesi üzerindeki etkisi hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkeler için tüm dönemlerde olumsuz olmuştur. Üstelik 2008 finansal krizi sırasında reel faiz oranı ile sanayi üretimi büyümesi arasındaki ilişki hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkeler için negatiftir. Ancak gelişmiş ülkelerde reel faiz oranının etkisi daha güçlü olmuştur. COVID-19 salgını sırasında reel faiz oranının sanayi üretimi büyümesi üzerindeki etkisi 2008 finansal krizinden çok daha güçlü olmuştur. Etkisi gelişmiş ülkelerde de daha belirgin olmuştur. Sonuç, kriz ve salgın sırasında reel faiz oranındaki düşüşün sanayi üretimini canlandırmada önemli bir rol oynadığını gösteriyor. Reel faiz oranının aşağı çekilmesi, büyümeyi teşvik etmek için etkili bir araç olabilir ve COVID-19 salgını sırasında ekonomik faaliyetlerdeki olumsuz sonuçları azaltabilir. Fakat gelişmiş ülkelerde enflasyon oranı oldukça düşük olduğundan, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde genişletici para politikasının ardından döviz kurundaki değer kaybı riski sınırlı olabiliyor. Dolayısıyla para politikasının yanı sıra devletin maliye politikası yoluyla ekonomik faaliyetlere müdahale etmesi gibi diğer alternatifler yöntemler önem kazanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• 2008 finansal krizi
• COVID-19 salgını
• sanayi üretimi
• panel veri analizi

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