J-Eğrisi Hipotezi Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

İktisat politikalarının oluşum sürecinde döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki(ler), politika yapıcılar için değerli makroekonomik göstergeler olarak düşünülebilir. Politika yapıcılar, döviz kuru değişikliklerinin kısa ve uzun dönemde dış ticaret dengesini nasıl etkilediğine dair bilgileri kullanarak zaman içerisinde optimal dış ticaret dengesini hedefleyebilirler. Burada dış ticarete konu malların ihracat ve ithalat miktarlarının ve ihracat ve ithalat fiyatlarının döviz kuruna tepkisi belirleyici olabilmektedir. Neredeyse tüm ülkeler dış ticaret dengesi sorunlarıyla karşılaşmaktadırlar, ancak bu sorunların daha çok gelişmekte olan ülkelerde görüldüğü belirtilebilir. Bu bağlamda döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki makroekonomik ilişki özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki politika yapıcılar açısından temel öneme sahip bir konudur. İktisat kuramında dış ticaret dengesinin değerinin reel döviz kuru hareketlerine tepkisi J-eğrisi ile tanımlanmakta ve reel bir değer kaybının başlangıçta dış ticaret dengesi açığını kötüleştirdiği ancak zamanla onu iyileştirdiği bilinmektedir. Bu çalışmada amaç, Türkiye’de 1980-2023 döneminde J-eğrisi etkisini araştırmaktır. Bazı zaman serisi tekniklerinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada, kullanılan değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiye rastlanmış ve etki-tepki analizi sonucunda görece zayıf düzeyde J-eğrisi etkisinin geçerli olduğuna dair ampirik sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• döviz kuru
• dış ticaret dengesi
• J-eğrisi
• Uzun Dönem Etki
• Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonları
• Nedensellik

An Application on the J-Curve Hypothesis

Öz

In the process of forming economic policies, the relationship(s) between the exchange rate and the foreign trade balance can be considered as valuable macroeconomic indicators for policy makers. Policy makers can target the optimal foreign trade balance over time by using information on how exchange rate changes affect the foreign trade balance in the short and long run. In this case, the response of the export and import quantities of the goods subject to foreign trade and the export and import prices to the exchange rate can be decisive. Almost all countries face foreign trade balance problems, but it can be stated that these problems are more common in developing countries. In this context, the macroeconomic relationship between the exchange rate and the foreign trade balance is a fundamental issue, especially for policy makers in developing countries. In economic theory, the response of the value of the foreign trade balance to real exchange rate movements is defined by the J-curve, and it is known that a real depreciation initially worsens the foreign trade balance deficit but improves it over time. The aim of this study is to investigate the J-curve effect in the period 1980-2023, in Turkey. In this study, in which some time series techniques were used, a long-run relationship was found between the variables used and as a result of the impulse-response analysis, empirical results were reached that the J-curve effect was valid at a relatively weak level.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exchange Rate
• Foreign Trade Balance
• J-curve
• Long Run Effect
• Impulse-Response Functions
• Causality

Kaynakça

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