Sermaye Piyasası Likiditesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye İçin ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme için finansal gelişimin önemi literatürde sıklıkla tartışılan bir konudur. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de sermaye piyasası temelli finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini 2010:1–2025:2 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanarak incelemiştir. Sermaye piyasası gelişimi BİST Pay Endeksi Toplam İşlem Hacmi/GSYİH oranı ile temsil edilmiştir. Değişkenlerin bütünleşme derecelerinin farklı olması nedeniyle ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile analiz gerçekleştirilmiş ve kısa–uzun dönem ilişkiler birlikte değerlendirilmiştir. Modele ayrıca doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ticaret açıklığı kontrol değişkenleri olarak dâhil edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de sermaye piyasası likiditesinin hem kısa hem uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca doğrudan yabancı yatırımların büyümeyi destekleyici bir unsur olduğu, dışa açıklığın ise kısa dönemde ve uzun dönemde büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etki oluşturduğunu ortaya konulmuştur. Finansal piyasaların geliştirilmesine yönelik politika adımları ekonomik büyüme dinamikleri açısından kritik rol oynamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişim
• Sermaye Piyasası Likiditesi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• ARDL

Capital Market Liquidity and Economic Growth: An ARDL Approach for Türkiye

Öz

The importance of financial development for economic growth is a frequently discussed topic in the literature. This study examines the impact of capital market-based financial development on economic growth in Türkiye using quarterly data covering the period 2010:1–2025:2. Capital market development is represented by the BIST Total Trading Volume/GDP ratio. Due to the variables having different orders of integration, the analysis was conducted using the ARDL bounds testing approach, and the short- and long-run relationships were evaluated jointly. Direct foreign investment and trade openness were also included in the model as control variables. The findings show that capital market liquidity in Türkiye positively affects economic growth in both the short and long run. Furthermore, foreign direct investment is a supportive factor for growth, while trade openness on growth in both the short and long run. Capital market liquidity in Türkiye is an important component of sustainable growth, and policy steps aimed at developing financial markets play a critical role in terms of economic growth dynamics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development
• Capital Market Liquidity
• Economic Growth
• ARDL

Kaynakça

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