Long-term Relationship of Production with Real Effective Foreign Exchange: An Empirical Analysis on Kazakhstan

Öz

This study analyzes the long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate which is based on oil prices and the industrial production index by taking Kazakhstan's economy into consideration. The hypothesis in applied studies is that the exports of basic goods, which lead to the appreciation of real effective exchange rate, causes a decline in non-tradable goods sectors or, in general, the hypothesis is analyzed in relation to the production volume of the economy relative to these real effective exchange rates. With this knowledge in the literature, this study analyzes the validity of the hypothesis of the "Dutch Disease" as an economy based on export of natural resources for the Kazakhstan Economy. This study conducted new techniques that are used for regression models in order to test co-integration allowing for multiple breaks. In addition, the robustness test was applied for the empirical findings. This work provides relevant literature a contribution because it deals with the Kazakh economy using new techniques. When the data and the period taken into consideration,  it is found that the "The Dutch Disease"  hypothesis is valid for Kazakhstan Economy. Especially, it can be said that the implementation of a support policy that attaches importance to the diversity of the sector and the diversity of goods in production is essential for Kazakhstan. In addition depending on these empirical findings, decline in energy prices will have a negative impact on economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dutch Disease,Real Effective Exchange Rate,Kazakhstan Industrial Production Index,Multiple Structural Break Co-integration

Üretim ile Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun Uzun Dönemli İlişkisi: Kazakistan Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Kazakistan Ekonomisi'nde doğal kaynak ihracatına dayalı bir ekonomi olarak "Hollanda Hastalığı"nın geçerli olup olmadığı analiz edilmiştir. Hollanda Hastalığı bulunan bir ülkenin ekonomisi için öncesinde yararlı bir gelişme varken, bir süre sonra bunun zararlı sonuçlar vermesi söz konusu olmaktadır. Bu açıdan, literatürde ekonomi hastalığı olarak bilinen Hollanda Hastalığı'nın en temel göstergesi, bir ekonomideki aşırı değerlenmiş döviz kurudur.  Bu amaçla öncelikle Kazakistan Ekonomisi için petrol fiyatlarına dayalı olarak Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru hesaplanmıştır. Daha sonra Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru ile Kazakistan Sanayi Üretim Endeksi arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin analizi yapılmıştır. Uygulamalı çalışmalarda Hollanda Hastalığı hipotezi, reel efektif döviz kurunun değerlenmesine yol açan temel mal ihracatının ticarete konu olmayan mal sektörlerinde azalmaya yol açması veya genel olarak ekonominin üretim hacminin bu reel efektif döviz kurlarıyla ilişkisine bağlı olarak analiz edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada yöntem olarak çok kırılmalı birim kök testi ile çok kırılmalı tümleşme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, söz konusu teknikler ile elde edilen ampirik bulguların dirençliliği de ortaya konmuştur. Bu yönüyle, Kazakistan Ekonomisi'ni yeni teknikler kullanarak ele alan uygulamalı bir çalışma ile literatüre katkı sunulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ele alınan dönem ve veriler dikkate alındığında, Kazakistan Ekonomisi için “Hollanda Hastalığı” hipotezinin geçerli olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Özellikle sektörel çeşitlilik ile üretimde mal çeşitliliğine önem veren bir destek politikasının uygulanmasının önemli olduğu ifade edilebilir. Söz konusu bulguya bağlı olarak enerji fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin Kazakistan ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde olumsuz etkisi olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hollanda Hastalığı,Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru,Kazakistan Sanayi Üretim Endeksi,Çok Kırılmalı Tümleşme

Kaynakça

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