Küresel Likidite Bolluğu Döneminde, Gelişen Piyasa Ekonomilerine Yönelik Kisa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketlerinin Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2008 finansal krizi sonrası ABD Merkez Bankası (FED) başta olmak üzere gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının uyguladıkları miktarsal gevşeme politikalarına bağlı olarak artan kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinin gelişen piyasa ekonomilerine doğru yön bulmasında belirleyici olan iten ve çeken faktörlerin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Türkiye bu çalışmada örnek ülke olarak belirlenmiştir. 2008-2014 döneminin ele alındığı çalışmada aylık verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkinin tahmin edilmesinde ARDL yönteminden ve Hata Düzeltme Modelinden yararlanılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenlerden kaynaklı şokların sermaye hareketlerini açıklama gücünü yakalamak için ise VAR modeline dayalı Varyans Ayrıştırma Hesaplaması kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, küresel ve ülkeye özgü faktörlerin Türkiye Ekonomisinde ani duruş riskini arttırdığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca Fed tarafından uygulanan politikaların Türkiye’ye yönelik sıcak para hareketlerinde önemli bir belirleyici olduğu yönünde bulgulara da ulaşılmıştır. Yani Fed tarafından uygulanan genişleyici politikalar küresel likidite artışına ve küresel risk iştahının düşmesine neden olarak sermaye girişini hızlandırmıştır diyebiliriz. Bu bulgular sermaye hareketlerinin olumsuz etkilerine karşı makro ihtiyati politika tedbirlerinin gerekliliğini de desteklemektedirler.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sermaye Akımları,İten ve Çeken Faktörler,ARDL Yöntemi,VAR Modeli

Kaynakça

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