Türkiye’de Yurtdışına Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Yurtiçi Yatırımlar İlişkisi: Dışlama mı, çekme mi?

Öz

Son on yılda gelişmekte olan ülkelerin yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımları dikkat çekici bir biçimde artmaktadır. Pek çok gelişmekte olan ülkede çok uluslu şirketlerin ortaya çıkması ve büyümesi, yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımların küresel yatırım düzenindeki önemini yeniden gündeme getirmekte ve bu ülkelerde yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımların yurtiçi yatırımlar üzerindeki etkilerine olan ilginin artmasına neden olmaktadır. Son birkaç yıldır, yeni bir küresel yatırımcı olarak Türkiye’nin yurtdışına doğrudan yatırımlarının önemli ölçüde artması, bizi yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımların yurtiçi yatırımlar üzerindeki rolünü incelemeye teşvik etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımların yurtiçi yatırımları dışlayıp dışlamadığı ya da çekip çekmediği doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL yaklaşımları kullanarak 1970-2018 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasında simetrik ve negatif yönlü bir uzun dönem ilişki olduğunu ve yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırımların yurtiçi yatırımları güçlü bir şekilde dışladığını göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, yurtiçi sermaye oluşumunu merkeze alan politikalar oluşturulurken dışlama etkisinin dikkate alınması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yurtdışına doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• yurtiçi yatırım
• doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL yaklaşımları

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment Nexus in Turkey: Crowding out or Crowding in?

Öz

The last decade has witnessed a remarkable surge in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from developing countries. The growth of multinationals in a number of developing economies has renewed the importance of OFDI from developing countries for global investment patterns and increased the concerns about the effects of OFDI on the domestic investment in these countries. Over the last few years, the considerable rise in OFDI flows from Turkey as a newly emerged investor country has encouraged us to examine the role of OFDI on domestic investment. This paper investigates whether outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) crowds out or crowds in domestic investment in Turkey for the period of 1970-2018 by using linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches. The results provide evidence of a symmetric and negative long run relationship between OFDI and domestic investment suggesting that OFDI robustly crowds out domestic investment. Our paper highlights the need for consideration of crowding out effect in formulating policies centered upon promoting domestic capital formation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Outward direct investment
• domestic investment
• linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches

Kaynakça

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