Küresel Likidite Bolluğu Döneminde, Gelişen Piyasa Ekonomilerine Yönelik Kisa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketlerinin Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 3, 462 - 486, 16.12.2019

Baki Demirel

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2008 finansal krizi sonrası ABD Merkez
Bankası (FED) başta olmak üzere gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının uyguladıkları
miktarsal gevşeme politikalarına bağlı olarak artan kısa vadeli sermaye
hareketlerinin gelişen piyasa ekonomilerine doğru yön bulmasında belirleyici
olan iten ve çeken faktörlerin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Türkiye bu
çalışmada örnek ülke olarak belirlenmiştir. 2008-2014 döneminin ele alındığı
çalışmada aylık verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında kısa ve uzun
dönem ilişkinin tahmin edilmesinde ARDL yönteminden ve Hata Düzeltme Modelinden
yararlanılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenlerden kaynaklı şokların sermaye
hareketlerini açıklama gücünü yakalamak için ise VAR modeline dayalı Varyans
Ayrıştırma Hesaplaması kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, küresel ve ülkeye
özgü faktörlerin Türkiye Ekonomisinde ani duruş riskini arttırdığını
göstermektedir. Ayrıca Fed tarafından uygulanan politikaların Türkiye’ye
yönelik sıcak para hareketlerinde önemli bir belirleyici olduğu yönünde
bulgulara da ulaşılmıştır. Yani Fed tarafından uygulanan genişleyici
politikalar küresel likidite artışına ve küresel risk iştahının düşmesine neden
olarak sermaye girişini hızlandırmıştır diyebiliriz. Bu bulgular sermaye
hareketlerinin olumsuz etkilerine karşı makro ihtiyati politika tedbirlerinin
gerekliliğini de desteklemektedirler.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sermaye Akımları, İten ve Çeken Faktörler, ARDL Yöntemi, VAR Modeli

Kaynakça

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