EKONOMİLERDE YAPISAL DÖNÜŞÜM VE BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma için büyük öneme sahip olan yapısal dönüşüm olgusu ve belirleyicileri, panel veri analiziyle incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla konu teorik temeliyle ele alındıktan sonra, seçilmiş 19 gelişmiş ve 24 gelişmekte olan ülkede 1970-2017 yılları arasında meydana gelen yapısal dönüşüm, hesaplanan yapısal dönüşüm endeksi yoluyla analiz edilmiştir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki yapısal dönüşüm endeks değerlerinin, gelişmiş ülke değerlerinden daha yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, yapısal dönüşümün belirleyicilerinin yapısal dönüşüm üzerine etkisini belirlemek amacıyla ülke gruplarına Panel Veri Analizi uygulanmıştır. Driscoll-Kraay tahmin sonucunda, gelişmiş ülkelerde dış ticaretin ve nüfusun etkisinin pozitif, doğumda yaşam beklentisinin negatif olduğu görülmüştür. Kişi başına milli gelir ve küreselleşme değişkenlerinin yapısal dönüşüm üzerine etkilerinin istatistiki olarak anlamsız olduğu saptanmıştır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise dış ticaretin negatif, kişi başına milli gelirin pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi görülürken, diğer değişkenlerin anlamsız olduğu belirlenmiştir. Son olarak, Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi ile de ülkeler bazında değerlendirme yapılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yapısal Dönüşüm
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Panel Veri Analizi

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN ECONOMIES AND ITS DETERMINANTS: APANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON SELECTED DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Öz

In this study, the structural transformation phenomenon and its determinants, which are of great importance for economic growth and development, are examined by panel data analysis. For this purpose, the structural transformation that occurred between 1970-2017 in 19 selected developed and 24 developing countries is analysed through the calculated Structural Transformation Index. It is determined that the structural transformation index values in the developing countries are higher than the developed country values. Then, Panel Data Analysis is applied to country groups to determine the impact of determinants of structural transformation on structural transformation. As a result of Driscoll-Kraay estimation, it is observed that the impact of foreign trade and population in developed countries is positive and life expectancy at birth is negative. The effects of variables of gross domestic product per capita and globalization on structural transformation are found to be statistically insignificant. In developing countries, the negative impact of foreign trade and the positive and meaningful effect of gross domestic product per capita are observed, while other variables are determined to be insignificant. Finally, an asessment is made on a country basis with the Common Correlated Effect Mean Group Estimator.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Structural Transformation, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

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