Petrol Fiyatları ile İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki Saklı İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2020, , 875 - 887, 30.09.2020

Mustafa Orhan Özer

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.676768

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2005:01-2019:08 dönemi için petrol fiyatları ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Fourier yaklaşımı çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testine göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmamakta, Fourier ADL saklı eşbütünleşme testine göre ise değişkenlerin negatif bileşenleri arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmaktadır. Uzun dönem katsayıları FMOLS yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda literatürde yer alan çoğu çalışmanın aksine, Türkiye’de petrol fiyatlarının işsizlik oranını ters yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatları, İşsizlik Oranı, Fourier Yaklaşımı, Saklı Eşbütünleşme Testi

Analyzing the Hidden Relationship between Oil Prices and Unemployment Rate: The Case of Turkey

Öz

In this study, the long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate in Turkey for the period 2005:01-2019:08 is analysed with Fourier approach. According to the Fourier ADL cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables while according to the hidden Fourier ADL cointegration test, there is a long-term relationship between the negative components of variables. Long-term coefficients are estimated by the FMOLS method. The analysis show that unlike most of the articles in the literature there is a negative impact of oil prices on unemployment rate in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Prices, Unemployment Rate, Fourier Approach, Hidden Cointegration Test

Kaynakça

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