MINT Ülkelerinde CO₂ Emisyonu Üzerine Bir İnceleme: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve DOLSMG Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 2869 - 2884, 30.09.2022

Dilara Ayla

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1114486

Öz

Bu çalışmada, MINT ülkelerinin 1980-2020 sürecindeki kişi başına GSYİH, ticari dışa açıklık oranı ve kişi başına enerji tüketimi ile CO₂ emisyon düzeyi arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkilerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, söz konusu değişkenlerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket eden bir yapıda olduğunu göstermiştir. Uzun dönem katsayılarının tespiti amacıyla yararlanılan DOLSMG tahmincisine ait sonuçlara göre, kişi başına GSYİH ve kişi başına enerji tüketiminde meydana gelen artışların ilgili ülke grubundaki CO₂ emisyonunu arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca emisyon miktarı artışı üzerindeki etkisi en fazla olan değişkenin enerji tüketimi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, özellikle Meksika ve Türkiye’deki kişi başına enerji tüketiminin grup ortalamasının üzerinde seyretmesi dikkat çekmektedir. Bununla birlikte ticari dışa açıklık düzeyinin artması halinde düşük bir etki katsayısına sahip olunsa da emisyon düzeyinin azaldığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, özellikle enerji kullanımına ilişkin verimlilik düzeyinin arttırılması, emisyon miktarının azaltılmasına yönelik dış ticaret politikalarının desteklenmesi ve ekonomik büyüme hedeflerinde yüksek karbon kullanan teknolojilerin azaltılması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO2 Emisyonu, Kişi Başına Gelir, Enerji, Ticari Açıklık

A Study on CO₂ Emissions in MINT Countries: Panel Cointegration and DOLSMG Analysis

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to examine the cointegration relations between GDP per capita, trade openness ratio, per capita energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the 1980-2020 period of MINT countries. The findings showed that the variables in question have a structure that moves together in the long run. According to the results of the DOLSMG estimator used to determine the long-term coefficients, has been determined that the increases in per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption increase the CO₂ emissions in the relevant country group. In addition, it was determined that the variable with the greatest effect on the increase in emission amount was energy consumption. In this context, it is noteworthy that the energy consumption per capita in Mexico and Turkey is above the group average. However, if the level of trade openness increases, it has been found that the emission level decreases, even though it has a low effect coefficient. The findings indicate that it is necessary to increase the efficiency level of energy use, to support foreign trade policies to reduce the amount of emissions, and to reduce the technologies that use high carbon in economic growth targets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

CO₂ Emissions, Per Capita Income, Energy, Trade Openness

Kaynakça

• ADEBAYO, T. S., RJOUB, H., AKADIRI, S. S., OLADIPUPO, S. D., SHARIF, A., & ADESHOLA, I. (2022). “The Role of Economic Complexity in The Environmental Kuznets Curve of MINT Economies: Evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(16): 24248-24260.
• AL-MULALI, U., TANG, C. F. & OZTURK, I. (2015). “Estimating The Environment Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: Evidence from Latin America and The Caribbean Countries”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 50: 918–924.
• ANTWEILER, W., COPELAND, B.R. & TAYLOR, M.S. (2001). ‘‘Is Free Trade Good for The Environment?’’, The American Economic Review. 91(4): 877-908.
• APERGIS, N. & PAYNE, E. (2009). “CO2 Emissions, Energy Usage and Output in Central America”, Energy Policy, 37: 3282–3286.
• APERGIS, N. & PAYNE, J. E. (2010). “The Emissions, Energy Consumption and Growth Nexus: Evidence from The Common Wealth of Independent States”, Energy Policy, 38(1): 650-655.
• ASTERIOU, D. & HALL, S.G. (2007). Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using Eviews and Microfit Revisited Edition, Palgra ve Macmillan, Newyork.
• AYDIN, F. F. (2013). “CO2 Emissions, Renewable Energy Consumption, Population Density and Economic Growth in G7 Countries”, The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Management, 2(8): 89-104.
• AYE, G. C. & EDOJA, P. E. (2017). “Effect of Economic Growth on CO2 Emission in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(2017): 1-22.
• BREUSCH, T. & PAGAN, A. (1980). “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239 253.
• DUROTOYE, A. (2014). “The MINT Countries as Emerging Economic Power Bloc: Prospect and Challenges”, Developing Country Studies, 4(15): 99-106.
• GROSSMAN, G. M. & KRUEGER, A. B. (1991). “Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement”, Natİonal Bureau Of Economıc Research, 3914: 1-39.
• HARBAUGH, W. T., LEVINSON, A. & WILSON, D. M. (2002). “Reexamining The Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(3): 541-551.
• HEIDARI, H., KATIRCIOĞLU, T. & SAEIDPOUR, L. (2015). “Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption in The Five ASEAN Countries”, International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 64: 785–791.
• HETTIGE, H., MANI, M. & WHEELER, D. (2000). “Industrial Pollution in Economic Development: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Revisited”, Journal of Development Economics, 62: 445–476.
• HOLTZ-EAKIN D. & SELDEN T.M. (1995). “Stoking The Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth”, Journal of Public Economics 57: 85–101.
• ISSAOUI, F., TOUMI, H. & TOUILI, W. (2016). “The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Economic Growth, Urbanization and Welfare: Application to Countries in The Middle East and North Africa”, The Journal of Energy and Development,1/2(41): 223-252.
• KAO, C. (1999). “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1): 1-44.
• KARIŞ, Ç. (2017). “Türkiye’de Eneri Tüketimi, CO2 Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: 1960-2013 Dönemi”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (34): 169-197.
• KASMAN, A. & DUMAN, Y. S. (2015). “CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Trade and Urbanization in New EU Member and Candidate Countries: A Panel Data Analysis”, Economic Modelling, 44: 97–103.
• KASPEROWİCZ, R. (2015). “Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: The ECM Analysis”, Journal of International Studies, 3(8): 91-98.
• KHAN, H., WEILI, L., KHAN, I. & KHAMPHENGXAY, S. (2021). “Renewable Energy Consumption, Trade Openness and Environmental Degradation: A Panel Data Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries”, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021: 1-13.
• LEAN, H. H. & SMYTH, R. (2010). “CO2 Emissions, Electricity Consumption and Output in ASEAN”, Applied Energy, 87: 1858-1864.
• LİNG, T. Y., AB-RAHIM, R. & MOHD-KAMAL, K. A. (2020). “Trade Openness and Environmental Degradation in ASEAN-5 Countries”, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 10(2): 691–707.
• MORAKINYO, A. E. & SIBANDA, M. (2016). “The Determinants of NonPerforming Loans in The ‘MINT’ Economies”, Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies. 8(5): 39-55.
• MUHAMMAD, B. (2019). Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Developed, Emerging and Middle East and North Africa Countries”, Energy 179: 232–245.
• NARAYAN, P. K. & NARAYAN, S. (2010). “Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries”, Energy Policy, 38: 661–666.
• NİU, S., DİNG, Y., NİU, Y., Lİ, Y. & LUO, G. (2011). “Economic Growth, Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction: A Comparative Analysis Based on Panel Data for 8 Asian-Pacific Countries”, Energy Policy, 39: 2121–2131.
• OKUTAN, Ş. & YAMAK, R. (2018). “Türkiye'nin Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, İktisat Seçme Yazılar 1. Baskı İçinde Bölüm, 1:157-181, Celepler Matbaacılık, Trabzon.
• Our World in Data (2021a). Data for up to 1990 are sourced from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States. Data from 1990 are CAIT data: Climate Watch. 2020. GHG Emissions. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. https://ourworldindata.org , Available at: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions , Erişim Tarihi: 16.12.2021.
• Our World in Data (2021b). https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=IDN~MEX~NGA~TUR&Total+or+Breakdown=Total&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Per+capita+consumption, Erişim Tarihi: 16.12.2021.
• OZOKÇU, S. & OZDEMIR, O. (2017). “Economic Growth, Energy and Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72: 639–647.
• PEDRONI, P. (1999). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(1): 653-670.
• PEDRONI, P. (2001). “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4) : 727-731.
• PEDRONI, P. (2004). “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with Application to The PPP Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 20(3): 597 625.
• PESARAN, M. H. & YAMAGATA, T. (2008). “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1): 50-93.
• PESARAN, M. H. (2015). “Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels”, Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10): 1089-1117.
• REESE, S. & WESTERLUND, J. (2016). “Panicca: Panic on Cross‐Section Averages”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6): 961-981.
• RICHMOND, A. K. & KAUFMANN, R.K. (2006). “Is There a turning point in The Relationship Between İncome and Energy Use and/or Carbon Emissions?”, Ecological Economics, 56(2): 176-189.
• SCALERA, F. & TODRI, A. (2016). “Markets’ Globalization nd Emerging Economies The MINTs Economic Growth: Developments and Prospects”, International Journal of Business and Commerce, 5(2): 38-55.
• SELDEN, T. M. & SONG, D. (1994). “Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27(2): 147-162.
• SHAFIK, N. & BANDYOPADHYAY, S. (1992). “Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Time Series and Cross-Country Evidence”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 904.
• SURI, V. & CHAPMAN, D. (1998). “Economic Growth, Trade and Energy: Implications for the Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Ecological Economics, 25: 195-208.
• SWAMY, P. (1970). “Efficient Inference in A Random Coefficient Regression Model”, Econometrica, 38(2): 311-322.
• World Bank, World Bank National Accounts Data and OECD National Accounts Data Files, https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses#cc-by, Erişim Tarihi: 16.12.2021.
• YANG, X. & KHAN, I. (2022). “Dynamics Among Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Environmental Sustainability in IEA Countries: The Role of Industry Value-Added”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(3): 4116-4127.
• YERDELEN TATOĞLU, F. (2018). İleri Panel Veri Analizi, Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, 3. Baskı, İstanbul.