The Relationship between Political Instability, Energy Security and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis on the Middle Eastern Countries

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 8 Sayı: İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler, 65 - 78, 18.12.2020

Gökhan Kartal , Serdar Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.629534

Cited By: 3

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between political instability, energy security and economic growth between 1996-2014 in selected 15 Middle Eastern countries. Panel cointegration results show that there is long-term relationship between variables. According to the panel FMOLS results, while 1% increase in energy security risk decreases per capita GDP by 0.41%, 1% increase in political stability increases per capita GDP by 0.25%. According to One-Way Fixed Effect Panel LS (based on period), while 1% increase in energy security risk decreases per capita GDP by 0.62%, 1% increase in political stability increases per capita GDP by 0.35%. The Panel Granger Causality results show that there is bi-directional causality relationship between energy security and GDP per capita, one-way causality relationship from energy security to political stability and from GDP per capita to political stability. These results indicate that energy security and political stability are an important policy issue for the economies of the region.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Political Instability, Energy Security, Economic Growth, Middle East Economies, Panel Data Analysis, Panel Cointegration, FMOLS

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Enerji Güvenliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Orta Doğu Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Öz

Bu çalışmada, seçili 15 Orta Doğu ülkesinde 1996-2014 yılları arasında politik istikrarsızlık, enerji güvenliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Panel eşbütünleşme sonuçları değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını göstermektedir. Panel FMOLS sonuçlarına göre enerji güvenliği riskinde %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,41 düşürürken, politik istikrardaki %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,25 artırmaktadır. Tek Yönlü Sabit Zaman Etkili Panel EKK sonuçlarına göre enerji güvenliği riskinde %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,62 düşürürken, politik istikrardaki %1 artış kişi başı GSYH’yi %0,35 artırmaktadır. Panel Granger Nedensellik sonuçları ise enerji güvenliği ile kişi başı GSYH arasında çift yönlü; enerji güvenliğinden politik istikrara ve kişi başı GSYH’den politik istikrara tek yönlü nedenselliği göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar enerji güvenliği ve politik istikrarın bölge ekonomileri için önemli bir politika meselesi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Enerji Güvenliği, Ekonomik Büyüme, Orta Doğu Ekonomileri, Panel Veri Analizi, Panel Eşbütünleşme, FMOLS

Kaynakça

• Aisen, A., ve Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth?. European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001
• Al, İ., ve Belke, M. (2018). Politik istikrarsızlık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: MENA ülkeleri için panel nedensellik analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 271–286. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.452539
• Alcántar-Toledo, J., ve Venieris, Y. P. (2014). Fiscal policy, growth, income distribution and sociopolitical instability. European Journal of Political Economy, 34, 315–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.03.002
• Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., ve Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138862
• Alesina, A., ve Perotti, R. (1996). Income distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203–1228. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00030-5
• Alper, A. E. (2018). BRICS-T ülkelerinde politik istikrar ve ekonomik performans ilişkisi üzerine bir analiz. Business and Economics Research Journal, 9(1), 49–56. https://doi.org/10.20409/berj.2017.88
• Arlt, J., ve Mandel, M. (2014). The reaction function of three central banks of visegrad group. Prague Economic Papers, 23(3), 269–289. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.484
• Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (Third Edit). England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
• Bellettini, G., Berti Ceroni, C., ve Prarolo, G. (2013). Political persistence and economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 31, 165–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.05.002
• Breusch, T. S., ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. he Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253.
• BP (2017). Statistical review of world energy. (Erişim: 12.09.2017), https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
• Brückner, M., ve Gradstein, M. (2015). Income growth, ethnic polarization, and political risk: Evidence from international oil price shocks. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(3), 575–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.05.005
• Butkiewicz, J. L., ve Yanikkaya, H. (2005). The impact of sociopolitical instability on economic growth: Analysis and implications. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(5), 629–645. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.04.001
• Butter, D. (2015). Syria’s economy: Picking up the piece. Royal Institute of International Affairs, Middle East and North Africa Programme Research Paper. London: Chatham House (Erişim: 06.12.2017), https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20150623SyriaEconomyButter.pdf
• Campos, N. F., ve Karanasos, M. G. (2008). Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896–2000. Economics Letters, 100(1), 135–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2007.12.013
• Campos, N. F., Karanasos, M. G., ve Tan, B. (2012). Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(1), 290–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.07.011
• Campos, N. F., ve Nugent, J. B. (2002). Who is afraid of political instability?. Journal of Development Economics, 67(1), 157–172. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00181-X
• Caporale, T., ve Leirer, J. (2010). Take the money and run: Political turnover, rent-seeking and economic growth. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 76(2), 406–412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2010.07.005
• Çelik, S., Deniz, P., ve Eken, S. (2008). Eşbütünleşme analiziyle Türkiye için ikiz açıklar hipotezi: 1996-2006. 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi. Çeli̇kpala, M. (2014). Enerji güvenliği: NATO’nun yeni tehdit algısı. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 10(40), 75–99.
• Chen, B., ve Feng, Y. (1996). Some political determinants of economic growth: Theory and empirical implications. European Journal of Political Economy, 12(4), 609–627. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(96)00019-5
• Fosu, A. (2001). Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics. Economics Letters, 70(2), 289–294. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(00)00357-8
• Gurgul, H., ve Lach, Ł. (2013). Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 46(2), 189–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2013.03.008
• Hotunluoğlu, H., ve Özçağ, M. (2012). İnternet kullanımının vergi gelirlerine etkisi: OECD üyesi ülkeler için ampirik bir analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 163, 354–366.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
• IEA. (2017). What is energy security?. (Erişim: 30.05.2017), https://www.iea.org/topics/energysecurity/subtopics/whatisenergysecurity
• International Monetary Fund. IMF Data. (Erişim: 02.11.2017), http://data.imf.org
• Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 15–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.09.010
• Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
• Karabulut, B. (2017). Enerji güvenliğine küresel ölçekte bir bakış. Savunma Bilimleri Dergisi, 15(1), 31–54.
• Karagöl, E., Erbaykal, E., ve Ertuğrul, H. M. (2007). Türkiye de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi: Sınır testi yaklaşımı. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 1(8), 72–80. https://doi.org/10.31671/dogus.2019.243
• Kartal, G. (2018). Orta Doğu ülkelerinde politik istikrarsızlık, enerji güvenliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Doktora Tezi. Nevşehir: Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi.
• Kartal, G. (2020). Politik istikrarsizlik ve enerji güvenliği ekseninde Orta Doğu ekonomileri. İstanbul: Hiperyayın.
• Kartal, G., ve Öztürk, S. (2018). Politik istikrarsızlık, uluslararası göç hareketleri ve ekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ve güney komşuları (İran, Irak ve Suriye) üzerine bir inceleme. Içinde E. Özensel, G. Bozbaş, F. Kaleci, ve M. N. Salur (Ed.), Ortadoğuda Göç Hareketleri ve Değişen Dinamikler. 180-199, Konya: Aybil Yayınevi.
• Klomp, J., ve de Haan, J. (2009). Political institutions and economic volatility. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(3), 311–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2009.02.006
• Knutsen, C. H. (2013). Democracy, state capacity, and economic growth. World Development, 43, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.10.014
• Kök, R., ve Şimşek, N. (2006). Endüstri-içi dış ticaret, patentler ve uluslararası teknolojik yayılma. Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Uluslararası Ekonomi Konferansı. 11-13 Eylül 2006, Ankara.
• Kruyt, B., van Vuuren, D. P., de Vries, H. J. M., ve Groenenberg, H. (2009). Indicators for energy security. Energy Policy, 37(6), 2166–2181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.006
• Le, T. H., ve Nguyen, C. P. (2019). Is energy security a driver for economic growth? Evidence from a global sample. Energy Policy, 129, 436–451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.038
• Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., ve James Chu, C.-S. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
• Man, G. (2016). Political competition and growth in global perspective: Evidence from panel data. Journal of Applied Economics, 19(2), 363–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(16)30015-0
• Martin, P., ve Ann Rogers, C. (2000). Long-term growth and short-term economic instability. European Economic Review, 44(2), 359–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00073-7
• Menegaki, A. N., ve Ozturk, I. (2013). Growth and energy nexus in Europe revisited: Evidence from a fixed effects political economy model. Energy Policy, 61, 881–887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.076
• Miljkovic, D., ve Rimal, A. (2008). The impact of socio-economic factors on political instability: A cross-country analysis. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 37(6), 2454–2463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2008.04.007
• Morshed, H. A. S. (2010). A panel cointegration analysis of the Euro area money demand. Master Thesis. Lund: Lund University.
• Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma. Doktora Tezi. Kayseri: Erciyes Üniversitesi.
• Özer, M., ve Kocaman, M. (2019). A bootstrap panel granger causality analysis of relationships between political instability and macroeconomic variables. Uluslararası Ekonomi, İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 3(2), 239–252. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.585261
• Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(s1), 653–670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1653
• Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully modified ols for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Advances in econometrics, 15, 93–130. https://web.williams.edu/Economics/wp/pedroniaie.pdf
• Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(03). https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
• Rachdi, H., ve Saidi, H. (2015). Democracy and economic growth: Evidence in MENA countries. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 191, 616–621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.04.644
• Radu, M. (2015). Political Stability - a condition for sustainable growth in Romania? Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 751–757. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01324-6
• Saidi, K., Rahman, M. M., ve Amamri, M. (2017). The causal nexus between economic growth and energy consumption: New evidence from global panel of 53 countries. Sustainable Cities and Society, 33, 45–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2017.05.013
• Şanlısoy, S. (2020). Türkiye’de politik istikrarsızlık ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Bir nedensellik analizi. Bilig, 92, 85–114. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.9204
• Şanlısoy, S., ve Çetin, M. (2017). Türkiye ekonomisinde politik istikrarsızlık-makro ekonomik performans ilişkisi. Dokuz Eylul Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(2), 207–237. https://doi.org/10.24988/deuiibf.2017322606
• Şanlısoy, S., ve Kök, R. (2016). Politik istikrarsızlık - ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1987–2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1). https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/deuiibfd/issue/22735/242657
• Sen, K. (2013). The political dynamics of economic growth. World Development, 47, 71–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.02.015
• Seshaiah, V. S., ve Tripathy, T. (2018). GDP purchasing power parity per capita and its determinants: A panel data analysis for BRICS. Theoretical Economics Letters, 08(03), 575–571. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.[phone]
• Stavytskyy, A., Kharlamova, G., Giedraitis, V., ve Šumskis, V. (2018). Estimating the interrelation between energy security and macroeconomic factors in European countries. Journal of International Studies, 11(3), 217–238. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2018/11-3/18
• Sweidan, O. D. (2016). Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from Jordan. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.1515/rmeef-2015-0025
• Tabassam, A. H., Hashmi, S. H., ve Rehman, F. U. (2016). Nexus between political instability and economic growth in Pakistan. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 230, 325–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.09.041
• Tang, C. F., ve Abosedra, S. (2014). The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries. Energy Policy, 68, 458–464. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.004
• Tarı, R. (2011). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları.
• Uçan, O. (2011). Açık ekonomilerde döviz kuru dinamikleri: Türkiye örneği. Doktora Tezi. Adana: Çukurova Üniversitesi.
• UNCTAD. UNCTADstat. (Erişim:06.12.2017) http://unctadstat.unctad.org/EN
• Voser, P. (2012). Energy: The Oxygen of the Economy. World Economic Forum Energy for Economic Growth Energy Vision Update 2012. (Erişim: 31.05.2017), http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_EN_EnergyEconomicGrowth_IndustryAgenda_2012.pdf
• World Bank. World Development Indicators Database. (Erişim: 14.01.2017), https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators
• Yalçınkaya, Ö., ve Kaya, V. (2017). Politik istikrarın/istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Dünyanın en büyük ilk yirmi ekonomisi üzerinde bir uygulama (1996-2015). International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 13(2), 277–298. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017228684
• Yang, B. (2011). Political democratization, economic liberalization, and growth volatility. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(2), 245–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.08.001
• Younis, M., Lin, X. X., Sharahili, Y., ve Selvarathi, S. (2008). Political stability and economic growth in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(3), 203–208. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2008.203.208
• Zouhaier, H., ve Kefi, M. K. (2012). Interaction between political instability and investment. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 4(2), 49–54. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF11.127