Türkiye'de Finansal Gelişmenin Ekolojik Ayak İzi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Yeni Dinamik ARDL Simülasyon Yaklaşımından Ampirik Kanıtlar

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 1293 - 1309, 30.12.2022

Oktay Özkan Mustafa Necati Çoban

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1124658

Öz

Bu çalışmada finansal gelişmenin ekolojik ayak izi üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye için araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’nin 1980 ile 2018 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanılarak güncel bir ekonometrik yöntem olan dinamik ARDL simülasyon modeli ile analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca ARDL sınır testi de kullanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre finansal gelişme ile ekolojik ayak izi arasında uzun dönemli ilişki belirlenmiştir. Dinamik ARDL simülasyon modeli sonuçları ise finansal gelişmede meydana gelen artışların (azalışların) ekolojik izini hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde artırdığını (azalttığını) ortaya koymuştur. Bu bulgular, politika yapıcıların finansal gelişmeyi sağlarken daha çevreci politikalar izlemesi gerektiğini belirtmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

finansal gelişme, ekolojik ayak izi, ARDL sınır testi, dinamik ARDL simülasyon modeli

The Impact of Financial Development on Ecological Footprint in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from the Novel Dynamic ARDL Simulations Approach

Öz

In this study, the impact of the financial development on ecological footprint is investigated for Turkey. In the study, analyses are carried out with the novel dynamic ARDL simulations model using the data of Turkey between 1980 and 2018. Also, the ARDL bounds test is used in the study. According to the ARDL bounds test results, a long-run relationship is determined between financial development and ecological footprint. On the other hand, the dynamic ARDL simulations model results reveal that increases (decreases) in financial development increase (decrease) the ecological footprint both in the short-run and in the long-run. The implication of these findings is that policymakers should follow more environmentally-friendly policies while providing financial development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

financial development, ecological footprint, ARDL bounds test, dynamic ARDL simulation model

Kaynakça

• Kaynakça Abbasi, K. R., & Adedoyin, F. F. (2021). Do energy use and economic policy uncertainty affect CO2 emissions in China? Empirical evidence from the dynamic ARDL simulation approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 23323-23335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12217-6.
• Abbasi F. & Riaz, K. (2016). CO2 emissions and financial development in an emerging economy: an augmented VAR approach. Energy Policy 90:102–114
• Ahmad, M., Ahmed, Z., Yang, X., Hussain, N., & Sinha, A. (2022). Financial development and environmental degradation: Do human capital and institutional quality make a difference? Gondwana Research, 105, 299-310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2021.09.012
• Ahmed, Z., Zhang, B. & Cary, M. (2021). Linking economic globalization, economic growth, financial development, and ecological footprint: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric ARDL. Ecological indicators, 121, 107060. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107060
• Akinsola, G. D., Awosusi, A. A., Kirikkaleli, D., Umarbeyli, S., Adeshola, I., and Adebayo, T. S. (2021). Ecological Footprint, Public-Private Partnership Investment in Energy, and Financial Development in Brazil: A Gradual Shift Causality Approach. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. doi:10.1007/s11356-021- 15791-5
• Baloch, M.A., Zhang, J., Iqbal, K. & Iqbal, Z. (2019). The effect of financial development on ecological footprint in BRI countries: evidence from panel data estimation. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26, 6199–6208 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3992-9
• Bastianoni S. (2010). The State of the Art in Ecological Footprint Theory and Applications. Footprint forum 2010. Colle Val d’Elsa; p. 174. doi:10.1109/ISCCSP.2010.5463316
• Bekhet, H.A., Matar, A. & Yasmin, T. (2017). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and financial development in GCC countries: dynamic simultaneous equation models. Renew Sust Energ Rev 70:117–132
• Claessens, S. & Feijen, E., (2007). Financial sector development and the millennium development goals. World Bank Working Paper No. 89. The World Bank
• Dada, J.T., Adeiza, A., Ismail, N.A. & Arnaut, M. (2022). "Financial development–ecological footprint nexus in Malaysia: the role of institutions", Management of Environmental Quality, Vol. 33 No. 4, pp. 913-937. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEQ-10-2021-0251
• Daly, H. (1991). Sustainable development: From concept and theory toward operational principles. In Steady-State Economics (H. Daly, ed), 2nd edition, pp. 241–60. Island Press, Washington, DC.
• Danish, & Ulucak, R. (2022). Analyzing energy innovation-emissions nexus in China: A novel dynamic simulation method. Energy, 244, 123010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.123010.
• Destek, M. A. & Sarkodie, S. A. (2018). "Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Ecological Footprint: The Role of Energy and Financial Development," MPRA Paper 106881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348. Huang, Y., (2010). Determinants of Financial Development. Palgrave Macmillan, USA.
• Ibrahim, M. & Vo, X. V. (2021). Exploring the relationships among innovation, financial sector development and environmental pollution in selected industrialized countries, Journal of Environmental Management, 284, 112057.
• Idrees M. & Majeed, M. T. (2022). Income inequality, financial development, and ecological footprint: fresh evidence from an asymmetric analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International. Apr;29(19):27924-27938. DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18288-3. PMID: 34982389.
• Jahanger, A., Usman, M., Murshed, M., Mahmood, H. & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2022).The linkages between natural resources, human capital, globalization, economic growth, financial development, and ecological footprint: The moderating role of technological innovations, Resources Policy, Volume 76,102569,ISSN 0301-4207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102569.
• Jensen, V. M. (1996). Trade and environment: The pollution haven hypothesis and the ındustrial flight hypothesis; Some perspectives on theory and empirics. University of Oslo, Centre for Development and the Environment.
• Jordan, S., & Philips, A. Q. (2018). Cointegration testing and dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag models. The Stata Journal, 18(4), 902-923. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1536867X1801800409.
• Khan, M. I., Teng, J.-Z., Khan, M. K., Jadoon, A. U., & Khan, M. F. (2021). The impact of oil prices on stock market development in Pakistan: Evidence with a novel dynamic simulated ARDL approach. Resources Policy, 70, 101899. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101899.
• Khan, M. K., Teng, J.-Z., & Khan, M. I. (2019). Effect of energy consumption and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan with dynamic ARDL simulations approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 23480-23490. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05640-x.
• Kibombo S, Ahmed Z, Chen S, Adebayo T. S., & Kirikkaleli D. (2021). Linking financial development, economic growth, and ecological footprint: what is the role of technological innovation? Environ Sci Pollut Res Int.;28(43):61235-61245. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14993-1. Epub 2021 Jun 25. PMID: 34170468.
• Kitzes, J., Galli, A., Rizk, S., Reed, A. & Wackernagel, M. (2008). Guidebook to the National Footprint Accounts: 2008 Edition. Oakland: Global Footprint Network.
• Li, X., Xiao, L., Tian, C., Zhu, B. & Chevallier, J. (2022). Impacts of the ecological footprint on sustainable development: Evidence from China, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 352,131472,ISSN 0959-6526, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131472.
• Long, X.Y., Yu, H.J., Sun, M.X., Wang, X.C., Jiˇrí, J.K., Xie, W., Wang, C.D., Li, W.Q. & Wang, Y.T., (2020). Sustainability evaluation based on the Three-dimensional Ecological Footprint and Human Development Index: a case study on the four island regions in China. J. Environ. Manag. 265 https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jenvman.2020.110509.
• Majeed, M. T., & Mazhar, M. (2019). Financial development and ecological footprint: A global panel data analysis. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 13(2), 487–514. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/201002
• Majeed, M. T. (2021). Financial Development and Ecological Footprint Nexus, in: Foundations of A Sustainable Economy, Editörler: Burki, U., Azid, T. ve Dahlstrom, R. F. , First Edition, Routhledge, 31, eBook ISBN: 9781003010579
• Mehraaein, M., Afroz, R., Rahman, M. Z., & Muhibbullah, M. (2021). Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ecological Footprint in Malaysia: Testing EKC and PHH, The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5): 583-593.
• Mishra, A. K., & Dash, A. K. (2022). Connecting the Carbon Ecological Footprint, Economic Globalization, Population Density, Financial Sector Development, and Economic Growth of Five South Asian Countries. Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.32627
• Nathaniel, S.P. (2021). Ecological footprint and human well-being nexus: accounting for broad-based financial development, globalization, and natural resources in the Next-11 countries. Futur Bus J 7, 24 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-021-00071-y
• Olowu, G., Bein, M., Olasehinde-Williams, G., (2018). Examining the relationship between financial development, sustainable economic opportunity and ecological footprint in sadc countries. Appl. Ecol. Environ. Res. 16 (5), 7171–7190.
• Pata, U.K. (2018), “Renewable energy consumption, urbanization, fnancial development, income and CO2 emissions in Turkey: testing EKC hypothesis with structural breaks”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 187, pp. 770-779.
• Pata, U.K., & Yilanci, V. (2020). Financial development, globalization and ecological footprint in G7: further evidence from threshold cointegration and fractional frequency causality tests. Environ Ecol Stat 27, 803–825. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-020-00467-z
• Patrick, H. T., (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change 14, 174-189
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
• Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182.
• Sahay, R.,Cihak, M., N’Diaye, P., Barajas, A., Bi, R., AyalaPena, D., Gao, Y., Kyobe, A., Nguyen, L., Saborowski, C., Svirydzena, K. and Yousefi, S. R. (2015). “Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets.” Staff Discussion Notes 15 (8): 1
• Saud, S., Chen, S., Haseeb, A & Sumayya. (2020). The role of financial development and globalization in the environment: Accounting ecological footprint indicators for selected one-belt-one-road initiative countries, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 250,119518,ISSN 0959-6526, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119518.
• Shahbaz, M.; Shamim, S.A. & Aamir, N. (2010) . Macroeconomic environment and financial sector’s performance: Econometric evidence from three traditional approaches. IUP J. Financ. Econ. 2010, 1, 103–123
• Simmons, C. & Chambers, N. (1998), “Footprinting UK households: how big is your ecological garden?”, Local Environment, 3(3), pages 355–362 .
• Simmons, C., Lewis, K. & Barrett, J. (2000), Two feet — two approaches: a component-based model of ecological footprinting, Ecological Economics, 32, pages 375–380
• Tamazian, A., Chousa, J. P. & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2009). Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation: Evidence from BRIC countries, Energy Policy, 37(1): 246-253,ISSN 0301-4215,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.025.
• Udeagha, M. C., & Ngepah, N. (2021). Disaggregating the environmental effects of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in South Africa: fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach. Econ Change Restruct. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09368-y.
• Wackernagel, M., Linares, A. C., Deumling, D., Schultz, N. B., Sanchez, M. A. V. & Falfan, I. S. L. (2000). Living Planet Report 2000. Produced by the World Wide Fund for Nature International, Switzerland together with the UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UK, the Centre for Sustainability Studies, Mexico, and Redefining Progress USA. http://panda.org/livingplanet/lpr00/
• Wackernagel, M., Onisto, L., Linares, A. C., Falfán, I. S. L., García, J. M., Guerrero, A. I. S. & Guerrero, M. G. S. (1997). Ecological Footprints of Nations: How Much Nature Do They Use? How Much Nature Do They Have? Commissioned by the Earth Council for the Rio+5 Forum. International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, Toronto, 1997. (available without graphics at www.ecouncil.ac.cr/rio/focus/report/english/footprint).
• Wackernagel, M., Schulz, N.B., Deumling, D., Linares, A. C., Jenkins, M., Kapos, V., Monfreda, C., Loh, J., Myers, N., Norgaard, R.B. & Randers, J. (2002) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:9266–9271.
• Wackernagel, M., Monfreda, C., Moran, D., Wermer, P., Goldfinger, S., Deumling, D. & Murray, M. (2005). National Footprint and Biocapcity Accounts 2005: The Underlying Calculation Method, Oakland, CA: Global Footprinting Network.
• Ye, Y., Khan, Y.A., Wu, C., Shah, E.A., Abbas, S.Z. (2021). The impact of financial development on environmental quality: evidence from Malaysia. Air Qual Atmos Health 14:1233–1246. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11869-021-01013-x
• Zhang Y. J. (2011) The impact of financial development on carbon emissions: an empirical analysis in China. Energy Policy 39:2197–2203