GSYH ve Mülteciler Arasında Bir Nedensellik Analizi: Türkiye ve Ürdün Karşılaştırması Örneği

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 355 - 372, 30.08.2024

Mehmet Mubarek Alan , Süha Çelikkaya

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.1320493

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve Ürdün’ün 1965-2020 yılları arasındaki nominal GSYH ve mülteci sayılarından yararlanılarak, ülkelerdeki gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ile mülteci sayıları arasında nedensellik ilişkisinin olup-olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Ülkeler kendi içlerinde analize tabi tutulmuş ve bu ilişkiyi belirleyebilmek için sırasıyla; birim kök testleri (ADF, PP, KPSS) uygulanmıştır. Durağanlıkları test edilen serilerin Johansen Eş bütünleşme Analizi ile uzun dönem ilişkileri tespit edilmiş ve son aşamada da Granger Nedensellik Testi ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve mülteci sayıları arasındaki nedensellikler belirlenmiştir. Beklenen sonuç mültecilerin, üretimi simgeleyen gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın yüksek olduğu ülkelere yönelmesi, bir başka ifade ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan mültecilere doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisinin çıkmasıydı. Ancak çalışma çıktısında elde edilen sonuç beklenenden farklı çıkmıştır. Türkiye ve Ürdün’de çıkan nedensellik ilişkilerinin ters yönlü olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’de mülteci sayılarından gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya doğru bir nedensellik çıkmışken, Ürdün’de gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan mülteci sayılarına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu iki ülkenin analizinden de gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve mülteci sayıları arasında tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu sonucu çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

GSYH, Mülteci, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Johansen Eş bütünleşme Testi

A Causality Analysis Between GDP and Refugees: A Comparison Case of Turkey and Jordan

Öz

This study investigate whether there is a causal relationship between the gross domestic product of the countries and the number of refugees by using the nominal GDP and refugee numbers of Turkey and Jordan between 1965 and 2020. Countries were analyzed within themselves and in order to determine this relationship; unit root tests (ADF, PP, KPSS) were applied. The long-term relationships of the series, whose stationarity were tested, were determined by Johansen Co-integration Analysis. Then causality between the gross domestic product and the number of refugees was determined with the Granger Causality Test. The expected result was that refugees tended towards countries with high gross domestic product, which symbolizes production, in other words, a causal relationship from gross domestic product to refugees. However, the result obtained in the study output was different from what was expected. It has been determined that the causality relations in Türkiye and Jordan are reversed. While a causality has emerged from the number of refugees to the gross domestic product in Turkey, a causal relationship has been found from the gross domestic product to the number of refugees in Jordan. From the analysis of these two countries, it was concluded that there is one-way causality between the gross domestic product and the number of refugees.

Anahtar Kelimeler

GDP, Refugee, Granger Casuality Test, Johansen Cointegration Test

Kaynakça

• Abu Murad, M. S., & Alshyab, N. (2019). Political Instability and Its Impact on Economic Growth: the Case of Jordan. International Journal of Development Issues, 18(3), 366-380.
• Al Wazani, K. W., Oehring, O., & Hueser, S. (Eds.). (2014). The Socio-Economic Implications of Syrian Refugees on Jordan: A Cost-Benefit Framework. KAS.
• Alougili, M. A. (2019). The Impact of Syrian Refugee on Jordanian National Security. European Journal of Social Sciences, 2(3), 83-99.
• Altunç, Ö. F., Uçan, O., & Akyıldız, A. (2017). Dış Göçlerin Türkiye Ekonomisinde İşsizlik Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Researcher, 5(1), 197-211.
• Aslantürk, O. (2020). Türkiye’ye Yönelik Göç ve İltica Hareketleri: Suriyeliler Örneği. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1), 172-201.
• Athamneh, A. B. (2016). Jordanian Refugee Policy. Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung, 22.
• Beaujouan, J., & Rasheed, A. (2020). The Syrian Refugee Policy of the Jordanian Government. Syrian Crisis, Syrian Refugees: Voices from Jordan and Lebanon, 47-63.
• Bel, A. (2022). Çerçeveleme ve Öne Çıkarma Yaklaşımı Bağlamında Suriyeli Sığınmacılara Yönelik Haberler. İstanbul Arel Üniversitesi İletişim Çalışmaları Dergisi, 10(21), 25‐47.
• Castells, M. (2007). Enformasyon Çağı: Ekonomi, Toplum ve Kültür-3. Cilt: Binyılın Sonu. Çev: Ebru Kılıç, İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi, İstanbul.
• Chen, H.-J., & Fang, I.-H. (2013). Migration, Social Security, and Economic Growth. Economic Modelling, 32, 386-389.
• Chiarella, C., & Gao, S. (2002). Type I Spurious Regression in Econometrics. University of Technology, Finance and Economics Working Paper, (114).
• Chirila, V., & Chirila, C. (2017). The Analysis of Romania's External Migration and of the Causality between Remittances and Romania's Economic Growth. Amfiteatru Economic, 19(46), 696.
• Dickey, D.A. & W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, p. 427–431.
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
• Ersoy, M. (1985). Göç ve Kentsel Bütünleşme. Ankara: Türkiye Geliştirme ve Araştırmaları Vakfı.
• Fakih, A., & Ibrahim, M. (2016). The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Labor Market in Neighboring Countries: Empirical Evidence from Jordan. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(1), 64-86.
• Ghosh, S., & Enami, A. (2015). Do Refugee-immigrants Affect International Trade? Evidence from the World's Largest Refugee Case. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(2), 291-307.
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, (37).
• Islam, F., & Khan, S. (2015). The Long Run İmpact of Immigration on Labor Market in an Advanced Economy: Evidence from US data. International Journal of Social Economics.
• Johansen, S. & Juselius, K., (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169–210.
• Karasu, M. A. (2018). Türkiye’ye Yönelik Dış Göçler, Suriyeli Sığınmacı Göçü ve Etkileri. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, 14(1), 21-41.
• Kartal, B., & Başçı, E. (2014). Türkiye'ye Yönelik Mülteci ve Sığınmacı Hareketleri. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(2), 275-299.
• Kemnitz, A. (2001). Endogenous Growth and the Gains from Immigration. Economics Letters (72), 215-218.
• Krishnakumar, P., & Indumathi, T. (2014). Pull and Push Factors of Migratıon. Global Management Review, 8(4), 8-13.
• Kwiatkowski, D.; Phillips, P. C. B.; Schmidt, P.; Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics. 54 (1–3): 159–178.
• Lenner, K., & Schmelter, S. (2016). Syrian Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon: between Refuge and Ongoing Deprivation. IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook, 122-126.
• Massey, D. S. (2019). Economic Development and International Migration. Comparative Perspective. in Determinants of Emigration from Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean içinde (13-47). Routledge.
• Meçik, O., & Koyuncu, T. (2020). Türkiye’de Göç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(3), 2618-2635.
• Mert, M., & Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi, Ankara, Detay Yayıncılık.
• Metelski, D., & Mihi-Ramirez, A. (2015). The Economic Impact of Remittances and Foreign Trade on Migration. Granger-Causality Approach. Engineering Economics, 26(4), 364-372.
• Mihi-Ramírez, A., Rudzionis, A., & Kumpikaite, V. (2014). European Economic Migration Flow, Earnings and Unemployment in Decade of 2000. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences (110 ), 122 – 129.
• Oucho, J. O. (2007). Migration and Regional Development in Kenya. Development, 50(4), 88-93.
• Phillips, P. C. B.; Perron, P. (1988). "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression" (PDF). Biometrika. 75 (2): 335–346. doi:10.1093/biomet/75.2.335.
• Skeldon, R. (2006). Interlinkages Between Internal and International Migration and Development in the Asian Region. Population, Space and Place, 12(1), 15-30.
• Şahin, İ. (2015). Türkiye’ye Gerçekleştirilen Ortadoğu Kaynaklı Zorunlu Göçlerin Sosyo-Ekonomik Etkileri: 1979-2014 Arası. Tesam Akademi Dergisi, 2(2), 167-195.
• Tanrıkulu, F. (2021). The Political Economy of Migration and Integration: Effects of Immigrants on the Economy in Turkey. Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies, 19(4), 364-377.
• Thiollet, H. (2011). Migration as Diplomacy: Labor Migrants, Refugees, and Arab Regional Politics in the Oil-rich Countries. International Labor and Working-Class History, 79(1), 103-121.
• UNHCR (2007). News and Stories, April 17, 2007, http://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/latest/2007/4/4624b0814/iraq-conference-iraq-host-countries-promise-aid-iraqi-refugees.html.
• UNHCR (2021). Global Trends Forced Displacement in 2021.
• UNHCR. (2007). Advisory opinion on the extraterritorial application of non-refoulement obligations under the 1951 convention relating to the status of refugees and its 1967 protocol. European Human Rights Law Review, 5, 483.
• Ventosa-Santaularia, D. (2009). Spurious regression. Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2009.
• World Bank, Gross Domestic Product for Jordan [MKTGDPJOA646NWDB], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPJOA646NWDB, March 29, 2023.
• World Bank, Gross Domestic Product for Turkey [MKTGDPTRA646NWDB], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPTRA646NWDB, March 28, 2023.
• World Bank, Refugee Population by Country or Territory of Asylum for Jordan [SMPOPREFGJOR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMPOPREFGJOR, March 29, 2023.
• World Bank, Refugee Population by Country or Territory of Asylum for Turkey [SMPOPREFGTUR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMPOPREFGTUR, March 29, 2023.
• Zou, T., & Ma, H. (2017). The Cointegration Analysis of the Population Migration and the Economic Growth in Xinjiang. 7th International Conference on Education, Management, Information and Mechanical Engineering içinde (EMIM 2017) 1771-1774. Atlantis Press.