Gürcistan Dış Politikasının Değişen Dinamikleri: Batı ile Bütünleşmeden Demokratik Gerilemeye Doğru

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 3, 758 - 782, 30.10.2025

Yelda Karadağ

https://doi.org/10.53376/ap.2025.27

Öz

Bu makale, Gürcistan’ın Sovyetler Birliği sonrası dönemdeki dış politika yönelimini iç ve dış dinamiklerin kesişimine odaklanarak neoklasik realist bir kuramsal çerçeveyle analiz etmektedir. Gürcistan gerek coğrafi olarak gerekse sahip olduğu kaynaklar ve imkanlar bakımından jeopolitik risklere açık küçük ölçekli bir devlettir. Gürcistan’ın 2003 Gül Devrimi sonrası benimsediği Batı yanlısı dış politika yönelimi temelde Avrupa-Atlantik bütünleşmesi ve egemenliğin korunması hedefleriyle şekillenmiştir. Ancak 2012’de Gürcü Rüyası Partisi’nin iktidara gelişiyle birlikte Rusya’ya dair pragmatik bir dış politika stratejisi vurgulanmış ve Rusya ile normalleşme arayışı ülkenin dış politika söyleminde ağırlık kazanmıştır. 2019 sonrası dönemde ülkede belirginleşen demokratik gerileme ve kötüleşen jeopolitik dinamikler özellikle Ukrayna Rusya Savaşı ile birlikte daha da derinleşmiş ve Batı karşıtı bir dış politika söylemine ve Batı ile bütünleşme hedefinden kopuşa zemin hazırlamıştır. Tüm bu dinamiklerden hareketle bu çalışma, Gürcistan’ın dış politikasındaki değişiminin ardındaki çok katmanlı nedenleri ve dış politika söylemindeki dönüşümleri üç tarihsel kırılma ekseninde doküman analizi ve tematik analiz yöntemleriyle incelemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gürcistan Dış Politikası , Gül Devrimi , Avrupa-Atlantik Bütünleşmesi , Rusya , Jeopolitik Kötüleşme

The Changing Dynamics of Georgian Foreign Policy: From Integration with the West to Democratic Backsliding

Öz

This article analyses the evolution of Georgia’s foreign policy in the post-Soviet era through a neoclassical realist perspective, focusing on the interplay between domestic and external factors. As a small state vulnerable to geopolitical risks, Georgia has pursued a pro-Western orientation since the 2003 Rose Revolution, prioritizing Euro-Atlantic integration and its sovereignty. The 2012 electoral victory of the Georgian Dream Party marked a strategic shift toward pragmatic engagement with Russia, introducing a normalization agenda into foreign policy discourse. Since 2019, democratic backsliding and deteriorating geopolitical conditions—particularly amid the Russia-Ukraine war—have intensified anti-Western rhetoric and distanced the country from its Euro-Atlantic integration goals. By employing document and thematic analysis, this study examines the multilayered drivers behind Georgia’s foreign policy transformation across three key historical turning points.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Georgian Foreign Policy , Rose Revolution , Euro-Atlantic Integration , Russia , Geopolitical Deterioration

Kaynakça

• AzerNews (2014), “Georgia: Lifting of Russian Wine Embargo to Have Limited Economic Impact”, https://www.azernews.az/region/74703.html (21.04.2025).
• Bertelsmann Stiftung (2025), “Georgia Country Report 2024”, https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GEO (20.06.2025).
• Charap, Samuel (2010), “Assessing the ‘Reset’ and the Next Steps for U.S. Russia Policy”, Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/04/pdf/russia_report.pdf (23.04.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2008), “Inaugural Speech of President Mikheil Saakashvili”, https://civil.ge/archives/114132 (22.04.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2012), “PM Appoints Special Envoy for Relations with Russia”, https://civil.ge/archives/122366 (21.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2014), “Usupashvili: Anti-Discrimination Bill is About Choosing Between Europe and Russia”, https://civil.ge/archives/123670 (19.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2015), “Georgia’s 2014 Foreign Trade”, https://civil.ge/archives/124317 (17.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2018), “President Delivers Annual Parliamentary Address”, https://civil.ge/archives/240443 (21.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2019), “Ivanishvili: 2020 Polls Proportional, Zero Threshold”, https://civil.ge/archives/310307 (02.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2020), “Call All Parties to March 8 Deal to Vote for Election Reform”, https://civil.ge/archives/356590 (01.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2022), “Georgia Won’t Join Russia Sanctions, PM Says”, https://civil.ge/archives/475153 (21.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2023), “GD Chair Kobakhidze Talks “Second Front, Radical Opposition””, https://civil.ge/archives/522057 (13.06.2025).
• Civil Georgia (2024), “GD Aborts EU Accession”, https://civil.ge/archives/638801 (21.06.2025).
• Coppieters, Bruno ve Robert Legvold, Robert (2005), Statehood and Security: Georgia after the Rose Revolution (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press).
• Cornell, Svante E. ve Frederick S. Starr (2009), The Guns of August 2008: Russia’s War in Georgia (New York: M.E. Sharpe).
• Deyermond, Ruth (2013), “Assessing the Reset: Successes and Failures in the Obama Administration’s Russia Policy, 2009–2012”, European Security, 22 (4): 500–523.
• Dickinson, Peter (2022), “The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s Green Light”, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/ (21.06.2025).
• European Commission (2014), “Association Agreement Between the European Union and Georgia”, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22014A0830(02) (21.05.2025).
• European Commission (2022), “Q&A on Georgia’s Enlargement Perspective”, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_22_3800 (23.05.2025).
• European Council (2021), “A Way Ahead for Georgia”, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/210418_mediation_way_ahead_for_publication_0.pdf (21.06.2025).
• European Council (2024a), “EU Enlargement”, https://eu4georgia.eu/eu-enlargement/ (21.06.2025).
• European Council (2024b), “Georgia Report 2024”, https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/7b6ed47c-ecde-41a2-99ea-41683dc2d1bd_en?filename=Georgia%20Report%202024.pdf (21.06.2025).
• Foulon, Michiel (2015), “Neoclassical Realism: Challengers and Bridging Identities”, International Studies Review, 17 (1): 635–661.
• Georgia Today (2004), “PM: Despite two foreign-funded revolutionary attempts, we have saved our country from Ukrainization and maintained peace”, https://georgiatoday.ge/pm-despite-two-foreign-funded-revolutionary-attempts-we-have-saved-our-country-from-ukrainization-and-maintained-peace/ (15.06.2025).
• GFSIS (2005), “National Security Concept of Georgia”, https://gfsis.org.ge/media/download/GSAC/resources/National_Security_Concept_Georgia.pdf (11.06.2025).
• GFSIS (2006), “Strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia 2006–2009”, https://gfsis.org.ge/media/download/GSAC/resources/115_1973_997704_Strategy_MFA2006-2009En.pdf (21.06.2025).
• Goedemans, Marc (2024), “What Georgia’s Foreign Agent Law Means for Its Democracy”, https://cfr.org/in-brief/what-georgias-foreign-agent-law-means-its-democracy (11.06.2025).
• Götz, Elias ve Pär Ekman (2024), “Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Context, Causes, and Consequences”, Problems of Post-Communism, 71 (3): 193–205.
• Götz, Elias (2022), “Near Abroad: Russia’s Role in Post-Soviet Eurasia”, Europe-Asia Studies, 74 (9): 1529–1550.
• Gvalia, Giorgi, Bidzina Lebanidze ve David Siroky (2019), “Neoclassical realism and small states: systemic constraints and domestic filters in Georgia’s foreign policy”, East European Politics, 35 (1): 21–51.
• Gvalia, Giorgi, David Siroky, Bidzina Lebanidze ve Zurab Iashvili (2013), “Thinking Outside the Bloc: Explaining the Foreign Policies of Small States”, Security Studies, 22 (1): 98-131.
• Hopf, Ted (2005), “Identity, Legitimacy and the Use of Military Force: Russia’s Great Power Identities and Military Intervention in Abkhazia”, Review of International Studies, 31 (1): 225-243.
• Jones, Stephen F. (2012), Georgia: A Political History Since Independence (London: I. B. Tauris).
• Kakachia, Kornely ve Salome Minesashvili (2015), “Identity Politics: Exploring Georgian Foreign Policy Behavior”, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 6 (2): 171–80.
• Kakachia, Kornely (2022), “Georgian Foreign Policy Strategy in Uncertain Times”, https://www.cacianalyst.org/resources/pdf/220905_FT-Georgia.pdf (21.06.2025).
• Kakachia, Kornely ve Shota Kakabadze (2022), “What’s Behind Georgian Dream’s Anti-Western Rhetoric and Foreign Policy Behavior”, https://gip.ge/publication-post/whats-behind-georgian-dreams-anti-western-rethoric-and-foreign-policy-behavior/ (21.06.2025).
• Kakachia, Kornely, Bidzina Lebanidze ve Shota Kakabadze (2024), “Transactional Hedging Versus Value-Based Hedging: How Small Frontline States Balance Between European Integration and Russian Influence”, European Security, 33 (4): 594-614.
• Kakachia, Kornely ve Salome Kandelaki (2022), “The Russian Migration to Georgia: Threats or Opportunities?”, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/the-russian-migration-to-georgia-threats-or-opportunities/ (10.06.2025).
• Kakachia, Kornely ve Tracey German (2022), “Achieving Security as a Small State”, Kakachia, Kornely, Tracy German, Stephen F. Jones (Der.), Georgia’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century: Challenges for a Small State (London: I.B. Tauris): 34-54.
• Kakachia, Kornely, Salome Minesashvili ve Levan Kakhishvili (2018), “Change and Continuity in the Foreign Policies of Small States: Elite Perceptions and Georgia’s Foreign Policy Towards Russia”, Europe-Asia Studies, 70 (5): 814–831.
• Karadağ, Yelda (2019), Georgian Europeanization: An Ideational and Institutional Analysis (Unpublished PhD Dissertation) (Ankara: Middle East Technical University).
• Lebanidze, Bidzina, ve Kornely Kakachia (2023), “Bandwagoning by Stealth? Explaining Georgia’s Appeasement Policy on Russia”, European Security, 32 (4): 676–695.
• Lewis, David G. (2018), “Geopolitical Imaginaries in Russian Foreign Policy: The Evolution of ‘Greater Eurasia’”, Europe-Asia Studies, 70 (10): 1612–1633.
• Mankoff, Jeffrey (2009), Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield).
• Mankoff, Jeffrey (2010), “Russia, the Post-Soviet Space, and Challenges to U.S. Policy”, https://www.amacad.org/publication/policy-world-meets-academia-designing-us-policy-toward-russia/section/6 (23.04.2025).
• McFaul, Michael (2020), “Putin, Putinism, and the Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy”, International Security, 45 (2): 95–139.
• MFA Georgia (2012) “National Security Concept of Georgia”, https://mfa.gov.ge/en/national-security-concept (19.05.2025).
• Mitchell, Lincoln A. (2009), Uncertain Democracy: US Foreign Policy and Georgia’s Rose Revolution (Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press).
• NATO (2002), “Speech by NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson at Tbilisi State University”, https://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2002/s021122h.htm (21.05.2025).
• NATO (2008a), “Bucharest Summit Declaration”, https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/04-april/e0403c.html (21.05.2025).
• NATO (2008b), “NATO-Russia Council Update”, https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/08-august/e0812a.html (21.06.2025).
• Nilsson, M., ve Daniel Silander (2016), “Democracy and security in the EU’s Eastern neighborhood? Assessing the ENP in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine”, Democracy and Security, 12 (1): 44–61.
• Nodia, Ghia (2013) “Divergent Interests: What Can and Cannot Be Achieved in Georgia–Russia Relations”, Kakachia, Kornely ve Michael Cecire, (Der.), Georgian Foreign Policy: The Quest for Sustainable Security (Tbilisi: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung): 97-110.
• Nodia, Ghia (2022), “Taking the Road Away from Europe: How Far Could Georgia Go?”, https://ceps.eu/download/publication/?id=37486&pdf=CEPS-Explainer-2022-02_Taking-the-road-away-from-Europe-how-far-could-Georgia-go-.pdf (11.06.2025).
• Ó Beacháin, Donnacha ve Frederik Coene (2014), “Go West: Georgia’s European Identity and Its Role in Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Objectives”, Nationalities Papers, 42 (6): 923–941.
• Parulava, Dato (2022), “Georgians fear their government is sabotaging EU hopes”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/georgian-fear-government-sabotaging-eu-hope/ (21.06.2025).
• Rathbun, Brian (2008), “A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structural Realism”, Security Studies, 17 (2): 294–321.
• Reiter, Erich ve Heinz Gärtner (2001), Small States and Alliances (Heidelberg, New York: Physica-Verlag).
• RFERL (2018), “Georgian President Calls For 'Strategic Patience' Toward Russia”, https://rferl.org/a/georgian-president-calls-for-strategic-tolerance-of-russia/29204413.html (21.06.2025).
• RFERL (2021), “Georgia's Ruling Party Tears Up EU-Brokered Deal with Opposition”, https://rferl.org/a/georgia-eu-deal-crisis-kobakhidze-/31382714.html (21.06.2025).
• RFERL (2022), “Ukraine Invasion Sparks Protest in Tbilisi”, https://rferl.org/a/ukraine-invasion-tbilisi-protest-georgia/31731006.html (21.06.2025).
• RFERL (2024), “Georgian Dream Takes On The 'Global War Party'”, https://rferl.org/a/global-war--party-georgian-dream-bidzina-ivanishvili/32951749.html (13.06.2025).
• Ripsman, Norrin M., Jeffrey W. Taliaferro ve Steven E. Lobell (2016), Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics (New York: Oxford University Press).
• Rose, Gideon (1998), “Review: Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, 51 (1): 144–172.
• Rosen, Armin (2012), “The Billionaire Who Would Rule Georgia: An Interview with Ivanishvili”, https://theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/the-billionaire-who-would-rule-georgia-an-interview-withivanishvili/261635/ (21.04.2025).
• Rothstein, Robert L. (1968), Alliances and Small Powers (New York: Columbia University Press).
• Sharashenidze, Tornike (2019), “Too Normal? Georgia, Democracy, and the ‘Gavrilov Crisis’”, https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_too_normal_georgia_democracy_and_the_gavrilov_crisis/ (21.06.2025).
• Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. (2009), “Neoclassical Realism and Resource Extraction: State Building for Future War”, Lobell, Steven E., Norrin M. Ripsman ve Jeffrey W. Taliaferro (Der.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press): 194–226.
• Transparency International (2020), “Georgia’s Economic Dependence on Russia: Trends and Threats”, https://transparency.ge/en/blog/georgias-economic-dependence-russia-trends-and-threats (21.06.2025).
• Transparency International (2022), “Georgia’s Economic Dependence on Russia: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War”, https://transparency.ge/en/post/georgias-economic-dependence-russia-impact-russia-ukraine-war-0 (21.06.2025).
• Tsuladze, Lia, Flora Esebua, Irakli Kakhidze, Ana Kvintradze, Irina Osepashvili ve Mariam Amashukeli (2016), “Performing Europeanization: Political Vis-à-Vis Popular Discourses on Europeanization in Georgia”, http://css.ge/wp-content/uploads/Eng-1.pdf (21.04.2025).
• UNDP (2013), “Socioeconomic Vulnerability in Georgia”, https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/ge/GE_vnerability_eng.pdf (11.06.2025).
• Waltz, Kenneth (1979), Theory of International Politics (Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company).