The Financial Failure Risks of Restaurant Chaiıns and The Impact of Covıd-19

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the financial failure risk levels of the restaurant chains with the highest brand value and to reveal the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the financial failure risk. For this purpose, the risks of financial failure of the 17 restaurant chains with the highest brand value according to the Brand Finance 2020 ranking were measured with Altman Z Score, Altman Z' Score, Altman Z'' Score, Springate, Fulmer and Ohlson models between 2016 and 2020. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the number of restaurants at risk of financial failure tends to increase as we approach the past to the present in all models. However, whether there is a statistically significant difference in the context of financial failure risk scores between the pre-Covid-19 epidemic (2016-2019) and the Covid-19 epidemic period (2020) was tested with the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. According to the results obtained, a statistically significant difference was found between the pre-Covid-19 epidemic and the epidemic period in terms of financial failure values in all models except the Ohlson model.

Keywords

• Financial failure risk
• Financial failure prediction models
• Restaurant chains
• Covid-19 epidemic
• Wilcoxon signed-rank test

Restoran Zincirlerinin Finansal Başarısızlık Riskleri ve Covıd-19’un Etkisi

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı marka değeri en yüksek restoran zincirlerinin finansal başarısızlık risk düzeylerini incelemek ve Covid-19 salgınının finansal başarısızlık riski üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla Brand Finance 2020 sıralamasına göre marka değeri en yüksek 17 restoran zincirinin, 2016-2020 yılları arasında finansal başarısızlık riskleri Altman Z Skor, Altman Z’ Skor, Altman Z’’ Skor, Springate, Fulmer ve Ohlson modelleriyle ölçülmüştür. Analiz sonucunda finansal başarısızlık riski taşıyan restoran sayısının tüm modellerde geçmişten günümüze yaklaştıkça artış eğiliminde olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte Covid-19 salgını öncesi (2016-2019) ve Covid-19 salgını dönemi (2020) arasındaki finansal başarısızlık risk skorları bağlamında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir fark olup olmadığı Wilcoxon İşaretli Sıra Testi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuca göre Ohlson modeli dışındaki tüm modellerde Covid-19 salgını öncesi ve salgın dönemi arasında finansal başarısızlık değerleri bağlamında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklılık saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal başarısızlık riski
• Finansal başarısızlık tahmin modelleri
• Restoran zincirleri
• Covid-19 salgını
• Wilcoxon işaretli sıra testi

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