Estimation of Short and Long-run Relationship between Selected Food Prices and Macroeconomic Variables in Ghana

Öz

Lagged food prices directly cause food price rise in Ghana and indirectly by crude oil and exchange rates. High import prices of agricultural inputs and biofuel discovery are reasons for causality. This paper analysed the short and long-run relationship between crude oil, exchange rate, and selected agricultural food commodity prices in Ghana. Johansen test was applied to lagged time periods to identify cointegration relation and error correction for long run adjustments. Weak exogeneity was also conducted among the cointegration variables. Shocks were transferred from lagged prices to current in Ghana. This causes shocks and speculations in grain markets in Ghana.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cointegration,Food prices,Macroeconomic variables,Vector error correction

Gana’da Seçilmiş Gıda Fiyatları İle Makroekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönem İlişkinin Tahmini

Öz

Gecikmeli gıda fiyatları, Gana'da mevcut gıda fiyatlarının doğrudan yükselmesine ve dolaylı olarak da ham petrol ve döviz kurlarındaki dalgalanmalara neden olmaktadır. Tarımsal girdilerin yüksek ithalat fiyatları ve biyoyakıtların ortaya çıkması nedenselliğin ana kaynaklarıdır. Bu çalışmada, Gana'daki seçilmiş bazı tarımsal ürün fiyatları ile ham petrol, döviz kuru arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve uzun dönem hata düzeltme dengesi için gecikmeli sürelere Johansen testi uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme değişkenleri arasında zayıf ekojenlik de varsayılmıştır. Gana'daki ekonomik ve ekonomik olmayan şokların gecikmeli fiyatlardan şimdiki mevcut fiyat düzeylerine aktarıldığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, Gana'daki tahıl pazarlarında yeni şoklara ve spekülasyonlara neden olmaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Eş bütünleşme,Gıda fiyatları,Makroekonomik değişkenler,Vektör hata düzeltme

Kaynakça

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