Reel Döviz Kurunun Makine ve Ulaştırma Araçları İhracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi Zamanla Değişiyor mu? Doğrusal Olmayan Panel ARDL Analizinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin makine ve ulaştırma araçları ihracatı ile reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişkiyi aylık veriler kullanarak 2013 Ocak-2023 Ağustos dönemi için incelemektedir. Westerlund (2007) panel eşbütünleşme testi, değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymuş, kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliğini göz önünde bulunduran CS-ARDL yöntemiyle panel ARDL tahmin sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır. Altı farklı alt örneklem üzerinde yapılan analiz, reel döviz kurundaki dalgalanmaların ihracat üzerinde asimetrik bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, reel döviz kurunun değer kaybı ve değer kazanmasının, dönemler arasında değişen öneme sahip olmakla birlikte, ihracatı farklı şekillerde etkilediği anlamına gelmektedir. Çalışmanın erken dönemlerinde, reel döviz kurundaki negatif şoklar ihracatı desteklemiştir. Ancak, 2020’den sonra pandemi ve küresel gelişmelerin etkisiyle, negatif reel döviz kuru şoklarının önemi kaybolmuş ve pozitif şoklar ihracatı sınırlamaya başlamıştır. Ülke bazında tahmin sonuçlarına da yer verilen çalışmada, genel bulgular ihracat politikalarının, reel döviz kuru ile ihracat arasındaki yapısal değişimleri ve asimetrik etkileri göz önünde bulundurarak belirli ticaret ortaklarına ve dönemlere göre uyarlanması gerektiğini işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat
• Döviz Kuru
• Panel Veri Ekonometrisi
• Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL

Does the Effect of the Real Exchange Rate on Exports of Machinery and Transport Vehicles Change Over Time? Evidence from a Non-linear Panel ARDL Analysis

Öz

This study examines the relationship between Türkiye's machinery and transport equipment exports and the real exchange rate using monthly data from January 2013 to August 2023. The long-term relationship was confirmed by the Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test, and the panel ARDL results were obtained using the CS-ARDL estimator, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity in slopes. The analysis, including six sub-samples, reveals an asymmetric relationship between exports and the real exchange rate, meaning that depreciation and appreciation of the real exchange rate affect exports with varying significance across time periods. In the early periods of the study, negative shocks to the real exchange rate supported exports. However, after 2020, following the pandemic and global developments, the significance of negative real exchange rate shocks disappeared, while positive shocks began to constrain exports. The study also obtained estimation results at the country level. Overall, the results highlight structural shifts in this relationship over time, suggesting that export policies should be adaptive and targeted based on specific trade partners and periods to account for these asymmetries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exports
• Exchange Rate
• Panel Data Econometrics
• Nonlinear ARDL

Kaynakça

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