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Toplam Doğurganlık Hızı Çalışmaları: R Programı ile Bı̇blı̇yometrı̇k Analı̇z

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1, 129 - 147, 28.03.2026
https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1744285
https://izlik.org/JA64XD35PK

Öz

Bu makale, Toplam Doğurganlık Hızı (TDH) üzerine yapılan akademik araştırmaların kapsamlı bir bibliyometrik analizini sunarak, alanın yapısal, zamansal ve tematik evrimini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Doğurganlık üzerine literatür geniş olmasına rağmen, TDH araştırma gelişiminin, kilit aktörlerin ve kurumların, ortaya çıkan temaların ve işbirliklerinin etkisinin sistematik haritalandırılması sınırlı kalmıştır. Bu analiz, 2001 ile 2025 yılları arasında Web of Science (WoS) veritabanında yayınlanan 779 İngilizce makaleye dayanarak, küresel TDH araştırma eğilimlerinin nicel ve görsel bir genel görünümünü sunarak bu boşluğu ele almaktadır. Bibliometrix R paketi ve Biblioshiny arayüzü kullanılarak yapılan çalışma, yıllık yayın eğilimleri, yazar verimliliği, atıf analizi, anahtar kelime birlikteliği, tematik haritalama ve işbirliği ağları dahil olmak üzere çeşitli bibliyometrik göstergelerden yararlanmaktadır. Özellikle, bu inceleme, önceki incelemelerin kapsamlı bir şekilde ele almadığı, COVID-19 pandemisi gibi küresel olaylardan etkilenen önemli demografik değişikliklerle karakterize edilen 2018-2025 dönemini vurgulamaktadır. Tematik haritalama gibi yeni göstergelerin entegrasyonu, ortaya çıkan araştırma paradigmalarının anlaşılmasını daha da geliştirmektedir. Analiz ayrıca, toplam doğurganlık hızı araştırmasının temelini oluşturan kavramsal ve sosyal yapıları da ortaya koymaktadır. Başlıca bulgular, özellikle 2018'den sonra yayın hacminde tutarlı bir artışın yanı sıra, doğurganlıkla ilgili konulara yönelik artan akademik ve politika ilgisini göstermektedir. Yüksek atıf alan yayınlar, demografi, halk sağlığı, ekonomi ve sosyoloji de dahil olmak üzere birçok disiplini kapsamaktadır. Tematik olarak, alanın zaman içinde ölümlülük ve nüfus artışı gibi geleneksel demografik kaygılardan daha disiplinlerarası bir yapıya doğru geçiş yaptığı görülmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Aitken, R. J. (2024a). The global decline in human fertility: the post-transition trap hypothesis. Life, 14(3), 369.
  • Aitken, R. J. (2024b). Population decline: where demography, social science, and biology intersect. Reproduction, 168(1).
  • Aria, M., & Cuccurullo, C. (2017). bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis. Journal of informetrics, 11(4), 959-975. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007
  • Bongaarts, J. (2002). The end of the fertility transition in the developed world. Population and development review, 419-443. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00419.x
  • Bongaarts, J. (2015, January). Global fertility and population trends. In Seminars in reproductive medicine (Vol. 33, No. 01, pp. 005-010). Thieme Medical Publishers.
  • Borzoiepour, S., Alizadeh, G., Jafary, H., & Zarnaq, R. K. (2024). Identify Affecting Factors on Total Fertility Rate: A Systematic Review. Health Scope, 13(3); e139351 https://doi.org/10.5812/healthscope-139351
  • Cheng, H., Luo, W., Si, S., Xin, X., Peng, Z., Zhou, H., ... & Yu, Y. (2022). Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education. BMC Public Health, 22(1), 1346. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13656-1
  • Coale, A. J. (1971). Age patterns of marriage. Population studies, 25(2), 193-214.
  • DeCicca, P., & Krashinsky, H. (2023). The effect of education on overall fertility. Journal of Population Economics, 36(1), 471-503.
  • De Silva, T., & Tenreyro, S. (2017). Population control policies and fertility convergence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 205-228. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.4.205
  • Diaz, P., Zizzo, J., Balaji, N. C., Reddy, R., Khodamoradi, K., Ory, J., & Ramasamy, R. (2022). Fear about adverse effect on fertility is a major cause of COVID‐19 vaccine hesitancy in the United States. Andrologia, 54(4), e14361. https://doi.org/10.1111/and.14361
  • Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N., & Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct a bibliometric analysis: An overview and guidelines. Journal of business research, 133, 285-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070
  • Erol, M. (2012). Avrupa Birliği’nde nüfusun yaşlanması ve sağlık harcamalarına etkisi. Sosyal Güvence, (1), 54-81.
  • Fuchs, R., & Goujon, A. (2014). Future fertility in high fertility countries. World population & human capital in the twenty-first century–an overview, 147-225.
  • Galor, O., & Zang, H. (1997). Fertility, income distribution, and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence. Japan and the world economy, 9(2), 197-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0922-1425(96)00245-9
  • Goldstein, S. (1972). The influence of labour force participation and education on fertility in Thailand. Population Studies, 26(3), 419-436. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.1972.10405911
  • Golub, R., Ivkov-Dzigurski, A., & Simeunović, V. (2023). Determinants of Fertility Intentions of the Women in Bosnia and Herzegovina—An Example from the Semberija Region. Behavioral Sciences, 13(5), 417. https://doi.org/10.3390/bs13050417
  • Guirguis, H., Donlon, T., McCarthy, M., Mehovic, A., & Mehta, R. (2024). The future of the labour force: a quantitative examination of the drivers of female labor force participation and total fertility rate in developed economies. Applied Economics, 56(44), 5238-5248. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2244248
  • Haq, S. M. A., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Ahmed, K. J., & Chowdhury, M. T. A. (2023). Environmental quality and its impact on total fertility rate: an econometric analysis from a new perspective. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2397. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17305-z
  • Hashimoto, H., & Naito, T. (2024). Regional differences in childcare environment, urbanization, and fertility decline. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 17(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-024-00369-9
  • Hwang, J., & Ha Lee, J. (2014). Women's education and the timing and level of fertility. International Journal of Social Economics, 41(9), 862-874. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-06-2013-0153
  • Jaffe, A. J. (1942). Urbanization and fertility. American Journal of Sociology, 48(1), 48-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106002
  • Jain, A. K. (1981). The effect of female education on fertility: A simple explanation. Demography, 18, 577-595. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060948
  • Kulu, H. (2006). Fertility of internal migrants: comparison between Austria and Poland. Population, space and place, 12(3), 147-170.
  • Lee, S. (2025). Fertility and urbanization. Cities, 163, 106002.
  • Li, K., Rollins, J., & Yan, E. (2018). Web of Science use in published research and review papers 1997–2017: A selective, dynamic, cross-domain, content-based analysis. Scientometrics, 115(1), 1-20.
  • McClamroch, K. (1996). Total fertility rate, women's education, and women's work: What are the relationships?. Population and Environment, 18(2), 175-186. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02208410
  • Menashe-Oren, A., & Sánchez-Páez, D. A. (2023). Male fertility and internal migration in rural and urban Sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Population, 39(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09659-2
  • Menken, J., Trussell, J., & Larsen, U. (1986). Age and infertility. Science, 233(4771), 1389-1394. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3755843
  • Mishra, V., & Smyth, R. (2010). Female labor force participation and total fertility rates in the OECD: New evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality testing. Journal of Economics and Business, 62(1), 48-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2009.07.006
  • Mongeon, P., & Paul-Hus, A. (2016). The journal coverage of Web of Science and Scopus: a comparative analysis. Scientometrics, 106(1), 213-228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1765-5
  • Nkalu, C. N., & NWoSu, E. O. (2024). Environmental issues, economic growth, and fertility rate in developing regions: From theory to robust empirical policies. Health Care for Women International, 45(2), 190-216. https://doi.org/10.1080/07399332.2022.2164283
  • Ogawa, N., Mason, A., Chawla, A., Matsukura, R., & Tung, A. C. (2009). Declining fertility and the rising cost of children: What can NTA say about low fertility in Japan and other Asian countries?. Asian Population Studies, 5(3), 289-307. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730903351586
  • Rotella, A., Varnum, M. E., Sng, O., & Grossmann, I. (2021). Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation. American Psychologist, 76(6), 933.
  • Simon, J. L. (1969). The effect of income on fertility. Population Studies, 23(3), 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.1969.10405289
  • Skakkebaek, N. E., Rajpert-De Meyts, E., Buck Louis, G. M., Toppari, J., Andersson, A. M., Eisenberg, M. L., ... & Juul, A. (2016). Male reproductive disorders and fertility trends: influences of environment and genetic susceptibility. Physiological reviews, 96(1), 55-97. https://doi.org/10.1152/physrev.00017.2015.
  • Sobotka, T. (2004). Is lowest‐low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing?. Population and development review, 30(2), 195-220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.010_1.x
  • Turkstat (2024). Doğum İstatistikleri, 2023. Retrieved May 12, 2025 from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Birth-Statistics-2023-53708.
  • Unuane, D., Tournaye, H., Velkeniers, B., & Poppe, K. (2011). Endocrine disorders & female infertility. Best Practice & Research Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 25(6), 861-873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.beem.2011.08.001
  • Xiao, Z., Qin, Y., Xu, Z., Antucheviciene, J., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2022). The journal Buildings: A bibliometric analysis (2011–2021). Buildings, 12(1), 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12010037
  • Yang, H., Han, R., & Wang, Z. (2023). Third-child fertility intention and its socioeconomic factors among women aged 20–34 years in China. BMC public health, 23(1), 821. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15719-3

Total Fertility Rate Studies: Bibliometric Analysis with R Program

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1, 129 - 147, 28.03.2026
https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1744285
https://izlik.org/JA64XD35PK

Öz

This study focuses on a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of academic research on the "Total Fertility Rate" and aims to reveal this field's structural, temporal, and thematic transformation. Despite the vast literature on fertility, few studies have systematically mapped how research on TFR has evolved, which actors and institutions play central roles, and how emerging themes and collaborations shape the academic landscape. This study addresses this gap and provides a quantitative and visual overview of global TFR research trends. The analysis is based on 779 English-language articles from the Web of Science (WoS) database published between 2001 and 2025. Using the Bibliometrix R package and the Biblioshiny interface, the study employs a range of bibliometric indicators, including annual publication trends, author productivity, citation analysis, keyword co-occurrence, thematic mapping, and collaboration networks. The study also sheds light on the conceptual and social structures underlying TFR research. The main findings show a steady increase in the volume of publications, especially after 2018, and an increasing academic and policy interest in fertility-related issues. The highly cited publications cover many disciplines, including demography, public health, economics, and sociology. Thematically, it shows that the field has evolved from traditional demographic concerns, such as mortality and population growth, to an interdisciplinary structure over time.

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışmada, yapay zeka aracı kümelerin analizinde yardımcı araç olarak kullanılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Aitken, R. J. (2024a). The global decline in human fertility: the post-transition trap hypothesis. Life, 14(3), 369.
  • Aitken, R. J. (2024b). Population decline: where demography, social science, and biology intersect. Reproduction, 168(1).
  • Aria, M., & Cuccurullo, C. (2017). bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis. Journal of informetrics, 11(4), 959-975. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007
  • Bongaarts, J. (2002). The end of the fertility transition in the developed world. Population and development review, 419-443. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00419.x
  • Bongaarts, J. (2015, January). Global fertility and population trends. In Seminars in reproductive medicine (Vol. 33, No. 01, pp. 005-010). Thieme Medical Publishers.
  • Borzoiepour, S., Alizadeh, G., Jafary, H., & Zarnaq, R. K. (2024). Identify Affecting Factors on Total Fertility Rate: A Systematic Review. Health Scope, 13(3); e139351 https://doi.org/10.5812/healthscope-139351
  • Cheng, H., Luo, W., Si, S., Xin, X., Peng, Z., Zhou, H., ... & Yu, Y. (2022). Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education. BMC Public Health, 22(1), 1346. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13656-1
  • Coale, A. J. (1971). Age patterns of marriage. Population studies, 25(2), 193-214.
  • DeCicca, P., & Krashinsky, H. (2023). The effect of education on overall fertility. Journal of Population Economics, 36(1), 471-503.
  • De Silva, T., & Tenreyro, S. (2017). Population control policies and fertility convergence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 205-228. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.4.205
  • Diaz, P., Zizzo, J., Balaji, N. C., Reddy, R., Khodamoradi, K., Ory, J., & Ramasamy, R. (2022). Fear about adverse effect on fertility is a major cause of COVID‐19 vaccine hesitancy in the United States. Andrologia, 54(4), e14361. https://doi.org/10.1111/and.14361
  • Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N., & Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct a bibliometric analysis: An overview and guidelines. Journal of business research, 133, 285-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070
  • Erol, M. (2012). Avrupa Birliği’nde nüfusun yaşlanması ve sağlık harcamalarına etkisi. Sosyal Güvence, (1), 54-81.
  • Fuchs, R., & Goujon, A. (2014). Future fertility in high fertility countries. World population & human capital in the twenty-first century–an overview, 147-225.
  • Galor, O., & Zang, H. (1997). Fertility, income distribution, and economic growth: theory and cross-country evidence. Japan and the world economy, 9(2), 197-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0922-1425(96)00245-9
  • Goldstein, S. (1972). The influence of labour force participation and education on fertility in Thailand. Population Studies, 26(3), 419-436. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.1972.10405911
  • Golub, R., Ivkov-Dzigurski, A., & Simeunović, V. (2023). Determinants of Fertility Intentions of the Women in Bosnia and Herzegovina—An Example from the Semberija Region. Behavioral Sciences, 13(5), 417. https://doi.org/10.3390/bs13050417
  • Guirguis, H., Donlon, T., McCarthy, M., Mehovic, A., & Mehta, R. (2024). The future of the labour force: a quantitative examination of the drivers of female labor force participation and total fertility rate in developed economies. Applied Economics, 56(44), 5238-5248. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2244248
  • Haq, S. M. A., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Ahmed, K. J., & Chowdhury, M. T. A. (2023). Environmental quality and its impact on total fertility rate: an econometric analysis from a new perspective. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2397. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17305-z
  • Hashimoto, H., & Naito, T. (2024). Regional differences in childcare environment, urbanization, and fertility decline. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 17(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-024-00369-9
  • Hwang, J., & Ha Lee, J. (2014). Women's education and the timing and level of fertility. International Journal of Social Economics, 41(9), 862-874. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-06-2013-0153
  • Jaffe, A. J. (1942). Urbanization and fertility. American Journal of Sociology, 48(1), 48-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106002
  • Jain, A. K. (1981). The effect of female education on fertility: A simple explanation. Demography, 18, 577-595. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060948
  • Kulu, H. (2006). Fertility of internal migrants: comparison between Austria and Poland. Population, space and place, 12(3), 147-170.
  • Lee, S. (2025). Fertility and urbanization. Cities, 163, 106002.
  • Li, K., Rollins, J., & Yan, E. (2018). Web of Science use in published research and review papers 1997–2017: A selective, dynamic, cross-domain, content-based analysis. Scientometrics, 115(1), 1-20.
  • McClamroch, K. (1996). Total fertility rate, women's education, and women's work: What are the relationships?. Population and Environment, 18(2), 175-186. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02208410
  • Menashe-Oren, A., & Sánchez-Páez, D. A. (2023). Male fertility and internal migration in rural and urban Sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Population, 39(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09659-2
  • Menken, J., Trussell, J., & Larsen, U. (1986). Age and infertility. Science, 233(4771), 1389-1394. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3755843
  • Mishra, V., & Smyth, R. (2010). Female labor force participation and total fertility rates in the OECD: New evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality testing. Journal of Economics and Business, 62(1), 48-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2009.07.006
  • Mongeon, P., & Paul-Hus, A. (2016). The journal coverage of Web of Science and Scopus: a comparative analysis. Scientometrics, 106(1), 213-228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-015-1765-5
  • Nkalu, C. N., & NWoSu, E. O. (2024). Environmental issues, economic growth, and fertility rate in developing regions: From theory to robust empirical policies. Health Care for Women International, 45(2), 190-216. https://doi.org/10.1080/07399332.2022.2164283
  • Ogawa, N., Mason, A., Chawla, A., Matsukura, R., & Tung, A. C. (2009). Declining fertility and the rising cost of children: What can NTA say about low fertility in Japan and other Asian countries?. Asian Population Studies, 5(3), 289-307. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730903351586
  • Rotella, A., Varnum, M. E., Sng, O., & Grossmann, I. (2021). Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation. American Psychologist, 76(6), 933.
  • Simon, J. L. (1969). The effect of income on fertility. Population Studies, 23(3), 327-341. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.1969.10405289
  • Skakkebaek, N. E., Rajpert-De Meyts, E., Buck Louis, G. M., Toppari, J., Andersson, A. M., Eisenberg, M. L., ... & Juul, A. (2016). Male reproductive disorders and fertility trends: influences of environment and genetic susceptibility. Physiological reviews, 96(1), 55-97. https://doi.org/10.1152/physrev.00017.2015.
  • Sobotka, T. (2004). Is lowest‐low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing?. Population and development review, 30(2), 195-220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.010_1.x
  • Turkstat (2024). Doğum İstatistikleri, 2023. Retrieved May 12, 2025 from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Birth-Statistics-2023-53708.
  • Unuane, D., Tournaye, H., Velkeniers, B., & Poppe, K. (2011). Endocrine disorders & female infertility. Best Practice & Research Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 25(6), 861-873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.beem.2011.08.001
  • Xiao, Z., Qin, Y., Xu, Z., Antucheviciene, J., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2022). The journal Buildings: A bibliometric analysis (2011–2021). Buildings, 12(1), 37. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12010037
  • Yang, H., Han, R., & Wang, Z. (2023). Third-child fertility intention and its socioeconomic factors among women aged 20–34 years in China. BMC public health, 23(1), 821. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15719-3
Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Çalışma Ekonomisi ve İktisadi Demografi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Halim Baş 0000-0002-4109-1696

Bilal Coşan 0000-0002-8023-1129

Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Temmuz 2025
Kabul Tarihi 5 Ocak 2026
Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Mart 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1744285
IZ https://izlik.org/JA64XD35PK
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2026 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Baş, H., & Coşan, B. (2026). Total Fertility Rate Studies: Bibliometric Analysis with R Program. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 26(1), 129-147. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1744285