Analysis of the Competition Between China and the US in the 21st Century from the Perspective of the Concept of Hybrid Cold War

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 367 - 390, 29.06.2021

Hüseyin Korkmaz , İdris Turan

https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.959232

Öz

In the 21st century, there has been complex competition among states for global power. In this regard, states are often observed to confront each other. Globalization in the post-Cold War era led to technological transformation, which brought along radical changes in the competition for global hegemony. In the context of competition for power, the relations between the US and China as two world powers have remarkable characteristics. From this perspective, this study is designed to understand the recent competition between the US and China in comparison with the classical competition during the Cold War. In this vein, the study introduces the concept of Hybrid Cold War and focuses on conventional and non-conventional factors that stand out in the US-China competition. The qualitative research method is adopted in the study and document analysis is used as a data collection technique. In addition, content analysis is benefited as a data analysis technique. In addition to propounding the concept of Hybrid Cold War, the study endeavors to define the ambiguous features of the new era in a conceptual framework. In consequence, this research argues that the US-China competition has entered a new era where conventional and non-conventional methods are used together, increasing the probability of conflict.

Anahtar Kelimeler

US, China, Cold War, Hybrid Cold War

Kaynakça

• AA. (2018, 12 February). Pentagon seeks to invest $550M in PYD/PKK. Retrieved from: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/pentagon-seeks-to-invest-550m-in-pyd-pkk/1061319
• Aoi, C., Futamura, M. and Patalano, A. (2019). Introduction ‘Hybrid Warfare In Asia: Its Meaning And Shape, The Pacific Review, 31(6). 693-713. DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2018.1513548
• Anderlini, J. and Feng, W. (2017, 1 January). Xi Jinping delivers robust defence of globalisation at Davos. Retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/67ec2ec0-dca2-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce
• Baker, B. D. (2015, 23 September). Hybrid warfare with chinese characteristics. Retrieved from: https://thediplomat.com/2015/09/hybrid-warfare-with-chinese-characteristics/
• BBC. (2017a, 20 January). Donald Trump: America first, America first. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-38698654
• BBC. (2017b, 24 January). Trump executive order pulls out of TPP trade deal. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38721056
• BBC. (2018, 31 May). US military renames Pacific Command. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44312024
• Beer, T. (2020, 19 December). Trump still won’t criticize Russia: Claims massive cyber hack "may be China" but offers no evidence. Retrieved from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/12/19/trump-still-wont-criticize-russia-claims-massive-cyber-hack-may-be-china-but-offers-no-evidence/?sh=127cc4a708a9
• Biesheuvel, T. (2018, 4 April). As China fires back in trade war, here are the winners and losers. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/as-china-fires-back-in-trade-war-here-are-the-winners-and-losers
• Bloomberg. (2020, 7 January). Trump’s blacklisting of Huawei is failing to halt its growth. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-06/trump-s-blacklisting-of-huawei-is-failing-to-halt-its-growth
• Buzan, B. (1997). Rethinking Security after the Cold War. Cooperation and Conflict, 32(5), 5-28. doi: 10.1177/0010836797032001001.
• Capaccio, A. (2020, 15 August). U.S. formalizes F-16 jet sale to Taiwan with China tensions high. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-14/u-s-formalizes-f-16-jet-sale-to-taiwan-with-china-tensions-high
• Census. Trade in goods with China. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2012
• CSIS. (2020). Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Retrieved from: https://amti.csis.org/island-tracker/china
• Çalışkan, M. (2019). Hybrid warfare through the lens of strategic theory. Defense & Security Analysis, 35(1). 40-58. doi: 10.1080/14751798.2019.1565364
• Dalei, J. (2020, 16 October). How China sees the U.S. policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ in the Taiwan Strait. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/16/how-china-sees-us-policy-strategic-ambiguity-taiwan-strait/
• Department of Defense. (2018). Summary of the National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge. Retrieved from: https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf
• Department of Defense. (2019a, 1 June). Indo-Pacific Strategy Report preparedness, partnerships, and promoting a networked region. Retrieved from: https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF
• Department of Defense. (2019b, May). National Defense Budget, US Department of Defense. Retrieved from: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2020/FY20_Green_Book.pdf
• Department of Defense. (2020). Military and security developments involving the people’s republic of China 2020. Retrieved from: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF
• Deutsche Welle. (2020, 27 October). US, India sign defense pact on sharing satellite data. Retrieved from: https://www.dw.com./en/us-india-sign-defense-pact-on-sharing-satellite-data/a-55404974
• Dorfman, Zach. (2020, 21 December). China used stolen data to expose CIA Operatives in Africa and Europe. Retrieved from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/china-stolen-us-data-exposed-cia-operatives-spy-networks/
• Duffield, J. S. (1995). NATO's functions after the Cold War. Political Science Quarterly, 109(5), 763-787.
• Esper, M. (2019, 14 December). Pentagon head says China has become top US military priority, moving past Russia. Retrieved from: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3042083/pentagon-head-says-china-has-become-top-us-military-priority
• Franck, T. (2018, 2 March). Trump doubles down: ‘Trade wars are good, and easy to win’. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/trump-trade-wars-are-good-and-easy-to-win.html
• Fridman, Ofer. (2018). Russian Hybrid Warfare Resurgence and Politicisation, Oxford University Press
• Government Accountability Office. (2010, 10 September). National Defence: Hybrid Warfare Retrieved from: https://www.gao.gov/assets/100/97053.pdf
• Hamilton, I. A. (2020, 12 February). The US says Huawei has been spying through 'back doors' designed for law enforcement — which is what the US has been pressuring tech companies to do for years Retrieved from: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-accuses-huawei-of-spying-through-law-enforcement-backdoors-2020-2
• Hammes, Thomas. (2006). The Sling and The Stone: On War İn The 21st Century. Minneapolis: Zenith Press.
• History. (2009). Chiang Kai-shek. Retrieved from: https://www.history.com/topics/china/chiang-kai-shek
• Hoffman, F. (2007). Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars, Arlington, VA: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
• Huber, Thomas. (1996). Compound Wars: The Fatal Knot. Fort Leavenworth, KS: Command and General Staff College.
• Huntington, S. P. (1993). If not civilizations, what? paradigms of the post-Cold War world. Foreign Affairs, 72(5), 186-194.
• Ikenberry, G. J. (1996). The myth of post-Cold War chaos. Foreign Affairs, 75(3), 79-91.
• Insinna, V. (2020, 9 July). US gives the green light to Japan’s $23B F-35 buy. Retrieved from: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/2020/07/09/us-gives-the-green-light-to-japans-massive-23b-f-35-buy
• Jakes, L. (2020, 4 July). With Beijing’s military nearby, U.S. sends 2 aircraft carriers to South China Sea. Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/us/politics/south-china-sea-aircraft-carrier.html#click=https://t.co/M8hVjvSQoN
• Jinping, X. (2017, 18 October). China never seeks hegemony, expansion: Xi. Retrieved from: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/19thcpcnationalcongress/2017-10/18/content_33404757.htm
• Jinping, X. (2013, 23 March). Xi Jinping Calls for the building of new type of international relations with win-win cooperation at the core in a speech at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Retrieved from: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/xjpcf1_665694/t1024781.shtml
• Korkmaz, H. (2020a, 2 July). Hybrid warfare and maritime militia in China. Retrieved from: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-hybrid-warfare-and-maritime-militia-in-china/1897259
• Korkmaz, H. (2020b, 21 December). Kuşak ve Yol girişiminin geleceği: Çin karakterli bir küreselleşme mi? [Future of Belt and Road initiation: A globalization which is characterized with China?]. Anadolu Agency. Retrieved from: https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/kusak-ve-yol-girisiminin-gelecegi-cin-karakterli-bir-kuresellesme-mi/2083696
• Lawder, D. and Blanchard, B. (2018, 15 June). Trump sets tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods; Beijing strikes back. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-ministry/china-promises-fast-response-as-trump-readies-tariffs-
• Liang, Q. and Xiangsui,W. (1999, February) Unrestricted Warfare, Beijing: PLA Literature and Art Publishing, translated by FBIS, Retrieved from: http://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf
• Lightbody, B. (1999). The Cold War. London & New York: Routledge.
• Lim, L. (2018). Trump’s Protectionism: method to the madness? Retrieved from: https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/bitstream/10356/88322/1/CO18047.pdf
• Livermore, D. (2018). China’s “Three Warfares” in theory and practice in the South China Sea. Retrieved from: https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2018/03/25/chinas-three-warfares-in-theory-and-practice-in-the-south-china-sea/#_edn5
• Lu, M. (2020, 23 February). China should not blithely ignore US overtures to India. Retrieved from: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180513.shtml
• Macmillan, J. and Greene, A. (2020, 30 June). Australia to spend $270b building larger military to prepare for 'poorer, more dangerous' world and rise of China. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-30/australia-unveils-10-year-defence-strategy/12408232
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Why we will soon miss the Cold War. The Atlantic Monthly, 266(2), 35-50.
• Miracola, S. (2018, 21 December). Chinese hybrid warfare. Retrieved from: https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/chinese-hybrid-warfare-21853
• Mumford, A. (2020). Understanding Hybrid Warfare, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 33(6), 824-827. doi: 10.1080/09557571.2020.1837737
• Murray, W. and Peter R M. (Ed.), (2012). Hybrid Warfare: Fighting complex opponents from the ancient world to the present. New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Nagarajan, S. (2020, 17 April). China's economy suffers its first contraction in 28 years, shrinking 6.8% in an 'extraordinary shock' to the global economy. Retrieved from: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-falls-first-quarter-2020-after-half-century-growth-2020-4
• Najžer, B. (2020). The hybrid age ınternational security in the era of hybrid warfare. London: I.B. Tauris.
• NATO. (2019, December). London Declaration. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_171584.htm
• NATO. (2018, July). Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156626.htm
• Nemeth, W. (2002). Future War and Chechnya: A Case for Hybrid Warfare (Unpublished Master Thesis). Naval Postgraduate School, California. Retrieved from: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/36699567.pdf
• NSS. (2017, 18 December). National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Retrieved from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
• Nye, J. (2020, March). The Dangers of Westlessness. Retrieved from: https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/the-dangers-of-westlessness/
• O’Hanlon, M. (2020, 23 December). Russia, China, and the risks of war: My conversation with General Mark Milley. Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/12/23/russia-china-and-the-risks-of-war-my-conversation-with-general-mark-milley/
• Panda, A. (2018, September). What the Recently Concluded US-India COMCASA means. Retrieved from: https://thediplomat.com/2018/09/what-the-recently-concluded-us-india-comcasa-means
• Pompeo, M. (2018, 4 December). Trump is building a new liberal world order, says Pompeo. Retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/04/us-president-donald-trump-is-building-a-new-liberal-world-order-says-mike-pompeo
• Rachman, G. (2020, 1 October). A new cold war: Trump, Xi and the escalating US-China confrontation. Retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/7b809c6a-f733-46f5-a312-9152aed28172
• Reuters. (2019, 16 May). Trump administration hits China's Huawei with one-two punch. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-trump-telecommunications/trump-administration-hits-chinas-huawei-with-one-two-punch-idUSKCN1SL2QX
• Reuters. (2020, 10 July). U.S. approves $620 million missile upgrade package for Taiwan. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-usa-defence/us-approves-620-million-missile-upgrade-package-for-taiwan-idUSKBN24B024
• Roubini, N. (2020, February). The White Swans of 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/white-swan-risks-2020-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-02
• Rosenfeld, E. (2019, 29 June). Trump says he agreed with Xi to hold off on new tariffs and to let Huawei buy US products. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/29/us-china-trade-war-trump-and-xi-meet-at-g-20-summit-in-osaka.html
• Russel R. D. and Berger H.B. (2020). Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative. Asia Policy Society Institute. Retrieved from: https://asiasociety.org/sites/default/files/2020-09/Weaponizing%20the%20Belt%20and%20Road%20Initiative_0.pdf
• Schoen, D. E. and Kaylan, M. (2015). Return to Winter: Russia, China, and the New Cold War Against America. New York & London: Encounter Books.
• SCMP. (2020, 24 February). India pours on pageantry with raucous welcome for Donald Trump. Retrieved from: https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3052068/donald-trump-arrives-india-expecting-biggest-event-theyve-ever
• SIPRI. (2019). Yearbook 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/yb19_summary_eng_1.pdf
• SIPRI. (2020). Yearbook 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/yb20_summary_en_v2.pdf
• Speranza, L. (2020). A Strategic Concept for Countering Russian and Chinese Hybrid Threats. Atlantic Council.
• Stoltenberg, J. (2019, December). Doorstep statement. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_171552.htm
• Tennenbaum, J. (2020, 13 December). China’s quantum computer a step, not a leap, Retrieved from: https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/chinas-quantum-computer-a-step-not-a-leap/
• Trump, D. (2017, January). The Inaugural Address. Retrieved from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/the-inaugural-address
• Trump, D. and Schwartz, T. (2004). Trump: The Art of Deal. New York: Ballantine Books.
• Tzu, S. (1910). Art of War: The Oldest Military Treatise in the World. (trans. Lionel Giles). London.
• UN. (2020, September). Growth in United Nations membership, 1945-present. Retrieved from: https://www.un.org/en/sections/member-states/growth-united-nations-membership-1945-present/index.html
• USTR. (2020, January). Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of The United States of America and The Government of The People's Republic of China. Retrieved from: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/ Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf
• Xiao, B. (2020, 6 July). Communist China’s Silent War Against America. Retrieved from: https://www.theepochtimes.com/communist-chinas-silent-war-against-america_3412704.html
• Vannak, R. and Kimkong, H. (2020). China’s Asian dream: Geo-economic strategy (Khmer version). Retrieved from: https://bkupdates-kh.com/article/2610?fbclid=IwAR1nQGgfnK0-Vby0NYct7Q32pS3QiRzi3Py9K7olPi4mGKmz8yNtBmq4SqU
• VOA. (2020, 22 September). At UNGA, Trump Blames China for Pandemic. Retrieved from: https://www.voanews.com/episode/unga-trump-blames-china-pandemic-4427801
• White House. (2017, June). Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord. Retrieved from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord/
• Winder, D. (2020, February). "$645 Billion Cyber Risk Could Trigger Liquidity Crisis", ECB’s Lagarde Warns. Retrieved from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/daveywinder/2020/02/08/645-billion-cyber-risk-could-trigger-liquidity-crisis-ecbs-lagarde-warns/#147a7a747ca8
• Wintour, P. (2020, 14 February). US urges Britain to take another 'hard look' at letting Huawei into 5G. Retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/14/us-urges-britain-to-take-another-hard-look-at-letting-huawei-into-5g
• Wolf, M. (2018, 1 May). Donald Trump declares trade war on China. Retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/dd2af6b0-4fc1-11e8-9471-a083af05aea7
• Wong, C. (2020, 30 April). China on ‘high alert’ as ‘troublemaker’ US patrols South China Sea. SCMP. Retrieved from: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3082376/china-high-alert-troublemaker-us-patrols-south-china-sea
• Wu, W. and Wong, C. (2019, 29 June). Xi-Trump summit in Osaka brings trade truce, more talks and hope for Huawei. Retrieved from: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016636/xi-trump-summit-osaka-brings-trade-truce-more-talks-and-hope
• Yan, G. (2020). The impact of artificial intelligence on hybrid warfare. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 31(4), 898-917. doi: 10.1080/09592318.2019.1682908