Devlet Dışı Aktörlerin Gölge Orduları: Özel Askeri Şirketlerin Hibrit Savaş Stratejilerindeki Yeri

Öz

Bu çalışma, özel askeri şirketlerin hibrit savaş stratejilerindeki rolünü Wagner Grubu’nun Afrika operasyonları üzerinden analiz etmektedir. Makale, devletlerin hibrit savaş kapasitelerini genişletmek için özel askeri şirketleri nasıl kullandığını ve bu yapıların uluslararası hukukun hangi açıklarını istismar ettiğini araştırmaktadır. Mali ve Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti vaka analizleri üzerinden, Wagner Grubu’nun askeri operasyonları bilgi savaşı ile entegre ederek hibrit savaşın prototip modelini oluşturduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Araştırma, özel askeri şirketlerin devletlere “makul inkâr edilebilirlik” avantajı sağlayarak geleneksel güvenlik paradigmalarını dönüştürdüğünü göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hibrit Savaş
• Özel Askeri Şirketler
• Wagner Grubu
• Afrika
• Makul İnkâr Edilebilirlik

Shadow Armies of Non-State Actors: The Role of Private Military Companies in Hybrid Warfare Strategies

Öz

This study examines the role of private military companies in hybrid warfare strategies, using the Wagner Group's operations in Africa as a case study. The article discusses how states use private military companies to expand their hybrid warfare capabilities and how these structures exploit loopholes in international law. Through case studies in Mali and the Central African Republic, it was concluded that the Wagner Group has created a prototype model of hybrid warfare by integrating its military operations with information warfare. The research shows that private military companies transform traditional security paradigms by providing states with the advantage of “plausible deniability.”

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hybrid Warfare
• Private Military Companies
• Wagner Group
• Africa
• Plausible Deniability

Kaynakça

1. Alptekin, G. (t.y.). Meskûn mahallerde vekâletten hibrite yeni savaşlar. Academia.edu. https://www.academia.edu/37721734/Meskun_Mahallerde_Vek%C3%A2letten_Hibrite_Yeni_Sava%C5%9Flar
2. Aras, H. (2023). Rusya’nın hibrit savaşı ve Suriye müdahalesi. Nobel Bilimsel Eserler. Aty, M., & Elaggoune, A. (2019). Private military contractors in Africa: The case of Erik Prince. Africana Studia, 31, 169–179.
3. Başoğlu, R. (2024). Rusya’nın hibrit savaş stratejilerinde Wagner Grubu’nun rolü ve etkisi [Yüksek lisans tezi, İstanbul Topkapı Üniversitesi].
4. Bax, P. (2021, 3 Aralık). Russia’s influence in the Central African Republic. International Crisis Group. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/central-african-republic/russias-influence-central-african-republic
5. Buyar, C., & Şener, U. (2023). Tarihin dönüşü: Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı, siyasi ve ekonomik tesirleri. Journal of Academic Value Studies, 9(4), 284–301. https://doi.org/10.29228/javs.73952
6. Daumann, F. (2023). The client’s struggle to control private military companies effectively. Defense & Security Analysis, 39(4), 432–451. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2023.2240654
7. Dávid-Barrett, E. (2023). State capture and development: A conceptual framework. Journal of International Relations and Development, 26(2), 224–244. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-023-00290-6
8. Dawson, A., & Innes, M. (2019). How Russia’s Internet Research Agency built its disinformation campaign. The Political Quarterly, 90(2), 245–256. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12690

9. Doboš, B., & Purton, A. (2024). Proxy neo-colonialism? The case of Wagner Group in the Central African Republic. Insight on Africa, 16(1), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.1177/09750878231209705
10. Dupont, A. (2003). Transformation or stagnation? Rethinking Australia’s defence. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 57(1), 55–76. https://doi.org/10.1080/1035771032000073641
11. Erkan, A. Ç., & Ateş, A. (2023). Wagner Grubu’nun yapısı ve operasyonları üzerine bir inceleme. Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi, 4(1), 111–130. https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1216725
12. Fasanotti, F. S. (2022, 8 Şubat). Russia’s Wagner Group in Africa: Influence, commercial concessions, rights violations, and counterinsurgency failure. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/russias-wagner-group-in-africa-influence-commercial-concessions-rights-violations-and-counterinsurgency-failure/
13. Faulkner, C. M., & Parens, R. (2025, 24 Mart). Russia in Africa: Private military proxies in the Sahel. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2025/03/24/russia-in-africa-private-military-proxies-in-the-sahel/
14. Fransa Afrika’daki askeri varlığından vazgeçmiyor. (2020, 15 Ocak). Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/fransa-afrikadaki-askeri-varligindan-vazgecmiyor/1703422
15. Garmazhapova, A. (2014, 31 Temmuz). Yevgeny Prigozhin: Caterer to the Kremlin. openDemocracy. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/yevgeny-prigozhin-caterer-to-kremlin/
16. Hassan, I., & Hiebert, K. (2021, 17 Kasım). Russian disinformation is taking hold in Africa. Centre for International Governance Innovation. https://www.cigionline.org/articles/russian-disinformation-is-taking-hold-in-africa/
17. Hiltermann, J. (2021, 3 Aralık). Is ‘Little Sparta’ stepping back? How the UAE is recalibrating in the Gulf. International Crisis Group. https://www.crisisgroup.org/opd/middle-east-north-africa/united-arab-emirates/little-sparta-stepping-back-how-uae-recalibrating-gulf
18. Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st century: The rise of hybrid wars. Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
19. Hoffman, F. G. (2009). Hybrid warfare and challenges. Joint Force Quarterly, 52, 34–48.
20. Horobets, A. (2025). Africa Corps maintains Russia’s presence in Africa after Wagner’s departure from Mali. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22(104). https://jamestown.org/program/africa-corps-maintains-russias-presence-in-africa-after-wagners-departure-from-mali/
21. Johnson, R. (2018). Hybrid war and its countermeasures: A critique of the literature. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 29(1), 141–163. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2018.1404770
22. Krieg, A. (2022). The UAE’s ‘dogs of war’: Boosting a small state’s regional power projection. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 33(1-2), 152–172. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2021.1951432
23. Law, B. (2017, 25 Nisan). The Gulf’s “Little Sparta” has big military ambitions. Middle East Eye. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulfs-little-sparta-has-big-military-ambitions
24. Mali’nin Wagner’le teması, Fransa ile Rusya arasında gerginlik yarattı. (2021, 26 Eylül). Euronews. https://tr.euronews.com/2021/09/26/mali-nin-wagner-grubuyla-temas-fransa-ile-rusya-aras-nda-gerginlik-yaratt
25. Marten, K. (2019). Russia’s use of semi-state security forces: The case of the Wagner Group. Post-Soviet Affairs, 35(3), 181–204. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2019.1591142
26. Mazzetti, M., & Hager, E. B. (2011, 14 Mayıs). Secret desert force set up by Blackwater’s founder. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/world/middleeast/15prince.html
27. McFate, S. (2014). The modern mercenary: Private armies and what they mean for world order. Oxford University Press.
28. Mockaitis, T. R. (1995). British counterinsurgency in the post-imperial era. Manchester University Press.
29. Mohamedou, K. (2024). The Wagner Group, Russia’s foreign policy and sub-Saharan Africa (Geneva Paper No. 32/24). Geneva Centre for Security Policy. https://dam.gcsp.ch/files/doc/geneva-paper-32-2024
30. Mumford, A., & Carlucci, P. (2023). Hybrid warfare: The continuation of ambiguity by other means. European Journal of International Security, 8(2), 192–206. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2022.19
31. Nemeth, W. J. (2002). Future war and Chechnya: A case for hybrid warfare [Yüksek lisans tezi, Naval Postgraduate School].
32. Nzuki, C. (2024, 21 Mart). The cost of paternalism: Sahelian countries push back on the West. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/cost-paternalism-sahelian-countries-push-back-west
33. Özer, A. (2023). Güneş ışığında gölgeler: (Rusya’nın) Wagner Grubu’nun Afrika’daki eylemleri bakımından isnat edilebilirliğin değerlendirilmesi. İmgelem, 7(12), 127–146. https://doi.org/10.53791/imgelem.1319252
34. Öztürk, Y. (2021). Uluslararası hukuk bağlamında özel askeri şirketler [Doktora tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi].
35. Parens, R. (2022). The Wagner Group’s playbook in Africa: Mali. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/03/the-wagner-groups-playbook-in-africa-mali/
36. Poznansky, M. (2022). Revisiting plausible deniability. Journal of Strategic Studies, 45(4), 511–533. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1734570
37. Saletta, M., Stearne, R., & Ebbott, E. (2021). Understanding mass influence: A case study of the Internet Research Agency as a contemporary mass influence operation. The University of Melbourne. https://www.unsw.edu.au/content/dam/pdfs/unsw-canberra/dri/2023-02-research/2023-02-Understanding- Mass-Influence---A-case-study-of-the-Internet-Research-Agency.pdf
38. Salisbury, P. (2020). Risk perception and appetite in UAE foreign and national security policy. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-07-01-risk-in-uae-salisbury.pdf
39. Scahill, J. (2007). Blackwater: The rise of the world’s most powerful mercenary army. Bold Type Books.
40. Serwat, L., Nsaibia, H., Carbone, V., & Lay, T. (2022, 30 Ağustos). Wagner Group operations in Africa: Civilian targeting trends in the Central African Republic and Mali. ACLED. https://acleddata.com/report/wagner-group-operations-africa-civilian-targeting-trends-central-african-republic-and-mali
41. Siegle, J. (2021). Russia and Africa: Expanding influence and instability. İçinde G. P. Herd (Ed.), Russia’s global reach: A security and statecraft assessment, (ss. 80–90) George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/marshall-center-books/russias-global-reach-security-and-statecraft-assessment/chapter-10-russia-and-africa-expanding-influence-and
42. Solmaz, T. (2022, 25 Şubat). ‘Hybrid warfare’: One term, many meanings. Small Wars Journal. https://smallwarsjournal.com/2022/02/25/hybrid-warfare-one-term-many-meanings/
43. Spearin, C. (2024). Russia’s Wagner Group/Africa Corps: An authoritarian conflict management examination. Conflict, Security & Development, 24(5), 479–499. https://doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2024.2415659
44. Stanyard, J., Vircoulon, T., & Rademeyer, J. (2023). The grey zone: Russia’s military, mercenary and criminal engagement in Africa. Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Julia-Stanyard-T-Vircoulon-J-Rademeyer-The-grey-zone-Russias-military-mercenary-and-criminal-engagement-in-Africa-GI-TOC-February-2023-v3-1.pdf
45. Topal, A. H. (2011). Uluslararası hukuk açısından özel askeri şirketler ve şirket çalışanlarının statüsü. Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 60(4), 963–1022. https://doi.org/10.1501/Hukfak_0000001648
46. Tuncel, G., Ağır, O., & Özdemir, F. N. (2024). Özel askeri şirketlerin kaynak ülke açısından taşıdığı riskler: Wagner örneği. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 20(47), 19–41. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1384007
47. Van Til, J. A. (2024). Ethics of plausible deniability. Pro Rege, 52(3), 37–46.
48. Wagner in Mali: US sanctions top junta officials over alleged ties. (2023, 25 Temmuz). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66300870
49. Wagner, jihadists battle over Mali’s gold. (2024, 23 Temmuz). Center for African Security Studies. https://www.cass-center.org/en/blog/wagner-jihadists-battle-over-malis-gold
50. Wagner’in Afrika’da aldığı en büyük darbede “131 asker öldürüldü”. (2024, 2 Ağustos). Independent Türkçe. https://www.indyturk.com/node/742281/d%C3%BCnya/wagnerin-afrikada-ald%C4%B1%C4%9F%C4%B1-en-b%C3%BCy%C3%BCk-darbede-131-asker-%C3%B6ld%C3%BCr%C3%BCld%C3%BC
51. Walker, R. G. (1998). SPEC FI: The United States Marine Corps and special operations [Yüksek lisans tezi, Naval Postgraduate School].
52. Yıldırım Çınar, H., & Boztaş, A. (2024, 30 Nisan). Rusya-Afrika ilişkilerinde Wagner etkisi. TASAM. https://tasam.org/tr-TR/Icerik/72580/rusya-afrika_iliskilerinde_wagner_etkisi