TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

• -

TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005

Öz

Bu çalışma; Türkiye’de 1989–2005 dönemi aylık verileriyle parasalcı, elastikiyet ve massetme yaklaşımlarında kullanılan yurtiçi ve yurtdışı gelir, reel döviz kuru ve parasal büyüklük (M3) değişkenleri yardımıyla dış ticaretin belirleyicilerini tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. ARDL yöntemiyle model tahmininde ticaret dengesi ve belirleyicileri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına ve massetme yaklaşımını destekleyen sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Uzun dönemde reel yurtiçi gelirdeki yüzde 1’lik bir artışın ticaret dengesinde yaklaşık yüzde 1.3’lük bir kötüleşmeye, yurtdışı gelirdeki yüzde 1’lik bir artışın ise yüzde 0.60’lık bir iyileşmeye neden olduğu görülmüştür. Reel döviz kuru ve M3 parasal değişkenleri uzun dönemde anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Reel döviz kurunun uzun dönemde pozitif ve anlamsız, kısa dönemde negatif ve anlamlı olması, Türkiye’de zayıf bir J-eğrisi etkisinin var olabileceğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticaret dengesi, J eğrisi etkisi, eşbütünleşme, sınır testi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. ALEXANDER, S.S. (1952), “Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance,” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 2: 263-278.
2. ALEXANDER, S.S. (1959), “Effects of a Devaluation: A Simplified Synthesis of Elasticities and Absorption Approaches,” American Economic Review, 49/1:22-42.
3. AKBOSTANCI, E. (2004), “Dynamics of the Trade Balance: the Turkish J-curve,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40/5: 57-73.
4. ARDIÇ, O.P. (2006), Output, the Real Exchange Rate and the Crises in Turkey, MEEA 2006 Conference, (http://www.luc.edu/orgs/meea/volume8/PDFS/ opardic_MEEA2006. pdf) (Erişim 31.03.2008).
5. ARIZE, A. C. (1994), “Cointegration Test of a Long-Run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance,” International Economic Journal, 8/3: 1-9.
6. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./MALIXI, M. (1992), “More Evidence on the J-curve from LDCs,” Journal of Policy Modelling, 14/5: 641-53.
7. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ALSE J. (1994), “Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error- Correction Modelling and Cointegration,” Eastern Economic Journal, 20/4: 453-464.
8. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./BROOKS, T.J. (1999), “Bilateral J-curve Between U.S. and Her Trading Partners,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 135/1:156-165

9. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./MITEZA, I. (2002) “Do Nominal Devaluations Lead to Real Devaluations in LDCs?,” Economics Letters, 74/3: 385-391.
10. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ GELAN, A. (2007) “On the Relation between Nominal Devaluation and Real Devaluation : Evidence from African Countries,” Journal of African Economies, 16/2: 177-197.
11. BERUMENT, H./DİNÇER, N.(2005), “Denomination Composition of Trade and Trade Balance: Evidence from Turkey,” Applied Economics, 37/10: 117-1191.
12. BICKERDIKE, C. F. (1920), “The Instability of Foreign Exchanges,” The Economic Journal (March).
13. BROWN, R.L./DURBIN J./EVANS J.M. (1975), “Techniques For Testing The Constancy of Regression Relations Overtime,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37/13: 149- 163.
14. BRADA, J. C./ KUTAN/A.M./ZHOU S. (1997), “The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Trade: the Turkish Experience,” The Journal of Development Studies, 33/5: 675-692.
15. BULUSWAR, M./ THOMPSON H/ UPADHYAYA K.P. (1996), “Devaluation and The Trade Balance in India: Stationarity and Cointegration,” Applied Economics, 28/4: 429- 432.
16. DICKEY, D./FULLER, W.A. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Journal of American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
17. DORNBUSCH, R. (1973), “Devaluation, Money and Non-traded Goods,” American Economic Review, 63/5: 871-880.
18. DUASA, J. (2004), The Malasian Balance of Payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach, Working Paper No: 26, Computing in Economics and Finance from Society for Computational Economics, (http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scescecf4/ 26.htm) (Erişim T. 05.03.2008)
19. DUASA, J. (2007), “Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach,” Global Economic Review, 36/1: 89-102.
20. ENGLE, R. F./GRANGER, C. W. J. (1987),“Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, 55/2: 251-276.
21. FRENKEL, J.A./RODRIGUEZ, C. (1975), “Portfolio Equilibrium and the Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach,” American Economic Review, 65/4: 674-688.
22. GOMEZ, F. A. R./PAZ, L.S. (2005), “Can Real Exchange Rate Devaluation Improve The Trade Balance? The 1990-1998 Brazilian Case,” Applied Economics Letters, 12/9: 525–528.
23. GOMEZ, D.M./ ALVAREZ-UDE, G. F. (2006), “Exchange Rate Policy and Trade Balance. A Cointegration Analysis of the Argentine Experience Since 1962,” MPRA Paper, No: 151.
24. GRANGER, C.W.J./NEWBOLD P. (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, 2/2: 111-120
25. GREENWOOD, J. (1984), “Non-Traded Goods, The Trade Balance and The Balance of Payments,” Canadian Journal of Economics, 17/4: 806-823.
26. GÜNEŞ, Ş. (2006), “Türk Dış Ticaretinin Uzun Dönem Dengesi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz,” İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Yıl 21, No. 245: 93-102.
27. HACKER R. S./ HATEMI-J, A. (2004), “The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade Balances in The Short and Long Run Evidence from German Trade with Transitional Central European Economies,” Economics of Transition, 12/4: 777–799.
28. HALICIOĞLU, F. (2007), “The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners,” MPRA Paper, No: 3564.
29. HARBERGER, A. C. (1950), “Currency Depreciation, Income and The Balance of Trade,” Journal of Political Economy, 58: 47-60.
30. HEPAKTAN, H. (2007), “Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretinin Gelir Yönlü Analizi,” Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikaları Dergisi, DTM, 1/2: 79-112.
31. JOHANSEN, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12/2-3: 231-254.
32. JOHANSEN S./JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration –with Application to the Demand For Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52/2: 169-210.
33. KALE, P. (2001), “Turkey’s Trade Balance in the Short and Long Run: Error Correction Modelling and Cointegration,”The International Trade Journal, 15/1: 27-56.
34. KAYALAR, T., (2006), “İhracatımız Üzerine Değerlendirmeler ve Dönüşüm Süreci,” 11. İhracat Koordinasyon Toplantısı (31 Ekim 2006) (Ankara).
35. KRUGMAN, P./ OBSTFELD, M. (2001), International Economics: Theory and Policy (New York: Addison-Wesley, Fifth Edition).
36. LAL, A.K. /LOWINGER, T.C. (2002), “Nominal Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment in South Asia Countries,” Journal of Asian Economics, 13/3: 371-383.
37. MAHDAVI, S./ SOHRABIAN, A. (1993), “The Exchange Value of The Dollar and The US Trade Balance: An Empirical Investigation Based on Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests,” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 33/4: 343-358.
38. MEADE, J. E. (1951), The Balance of Payments (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
39. METZLER, L. (1948), A Survey of Contemporary Economics, Vol. I (Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin).
40. MILANI, H. (1989), ”Devaluation and the Balance of Trade: A Synthesis of Monetary and Elasticity Approaches,” International Economic Journal, 3/3: 65-72.
41. MUNDELL R.A. (1968), International Economics (New York: Macmillan).
42. MUSA, M. (1976), Tariff and the Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach,” FRENKEL, J. / JOHNSON, H.G. (eds.), The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments (Toronto: University of Toronto Press).
43. NARAYAN, P. K./ NARAYAN, S. (2004), “The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji,” International Review of Applied Economics, 18/3: 369–380.
44. ONAFOWORA, O. (2002), “Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in East Asia: Is There a J-curve?,” Economics Bulletin, 5/18: 1-13.
45. PEKER, O. (2007), “Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerindeki Kısa ve Uzun Dönem Etkilerinin Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği,” 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi, 24-25 Mayıs 2007, İnönü Üniversitesi, Malatya. (http:// eisemp8.inonu.edu.tr/bildiri-pdf/peker.pdf) (Erişim T. 01.04.2008).
46. PESARAN, H./SHIN, Y. (1995), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis (DAE Working Paper Series No: 9514, University of Cambridge).
47. PESARAN, H. M./SHIN, Y/SMITH, R.J. (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16/3: 289-326.
48. PHILLIPS, P.C.B./PERON, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,” Biomètrika, 75/2: 336-346.
49. POLAK, J. J. (1957), “Monetary Analysis on Income Formation and Payments Problems,” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 6: 1-50.
50. ROBINSON, J. (1947), Essays in the Theory of Employment (Oxford: Basil Blackwell).
51. RAHMAN M. / MUHAMMAD, M. (1996), “The Dancing of the Real Exchange Rate of US Dollar and the US Real Trade Balance,”Applied Economics Letters, 3/12: 807–808.
52. RAHMAN, M./MUHAMMED, M./BURCKEL. D. V. (1997), “Dynamics of the Yen-Dollar Real Exchange Rates and the US-Japan Real Trade Balance,” Applied Economics, 29: 661-664.
53. ROSE, A./ YELLEN, J.L. (1989),“Is There a J-curve?,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 24/2: 53- 68.
54. ROSE, A.K. (1990), “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: Some Evidence from Developing Countries,” Economics Letters, 34/3: 271-275.
55. SEYİDOĞLU, H. (2007), Uluslarasası İktisat Teori Politika ve Uygulama (İstanbul: Genişletilmiş 16. Baskı).
56. SHIRVANI, H./ WILBRATTE, B. (1997), “The Relation between the Real Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment,” International Economic Journal, 11/1: 39-49.
57. SINGH, T. (2002), “India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates,” Journal of Policy Modelling, 24/5: 437-452.
58. SİVRİ U./USTA, C. (2001), “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki,” Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 19/4: 1-9.
59. SÖDERSTEN, B./REED, G. (1994), International Economics (London: MacMillan, Third Edition).
60. ŞIMŞEK, M./KADILAR, C. (2004), “Türkiye’nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleme Analizi: 1970-2002,” Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5/1: 27-34.
61. TCMB (2007), Üç Aylık Bülten 2007-III, Temmuz-Eylül.
62. WEIXIAN, W. (1998), “An Empirical Study of the Foreign Trade Balance in China,” Applied Economics Letters, 6/8: 485–490.
63. WILSON, P. (2001), “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies: Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia and Korea?,” Open Economies Review, 12/4: 389-413.
64. WILSON, P./ TAT, K. C. (2001), “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: the Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996,” Journal of Asian Economics, 12/1: 47-63.
65. WILLIAMSON, J. (1983), The Open Economy and the World Economy (New York: Basic Books Inc.).
66. YAMAK, R./KORKMAZ A. (2005),“Reel Döviz Kuru Ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi,” İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 2: 11-29.
67. YOL, M.A./ BAHARUMSHAH, A. Z. (2007), “Estimating Exchange Rate and Bilateral Trade Balance Relationships: The Experience of Sub-Saharan African Countries,” South African Journal of Economics, 75/1: 35-51.