Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

• -

TAYLOR KURALI: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Öz

Çalışmanın temel amacı, para politikalarının hangi değişkenlerin (enflasyon, üretim, kur) etkisi altında belirlendiğini ve bu süreçte kural doğrultusunda hareket edilip edilmediğini ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, enflasyon hedeflenmesinin uygulandığı 2002 sonrası için Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) geriye-dönük reaksiyon fonksiyonu tahmin edilmiştir. Taylor kuralı çerçevesinde tahmin edilen reaksiyon fonksiyonu sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’de kısa vadeli faiz oranları fiyat istikrarının sağlanması doğrultusunda kurala uygun değişmektedir. Reaksiyon fonksiyonundan elde edilen sonuçlar, TCMB’nin uyumcu politikalar izlemediğini göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre TCMB faiz belirleme sürecinde, enflasyon oranının dışında üretim açığına ve döviz kuruna tepki vermektedir. Döviz kuruna verilen tepki, dalgalı kur rejimiyle tutarlı bir şekilde düşük çıkmıştır. Bu sonuç, ilgili dönem için öncelikli amacı fiyat istikrarını sağlamak olan TCMB’nin temel hedefi ile uyumludur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon hedeflemesi, para politikası, faiz oranı reaksiyon fonksiyonu, GMM, Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. AKAT, Asaf Savaş (2001), “Dalgalı Kur ve Para Politikası: Bir Kural Önerisi,” (http://www. akat.bilgi.edu.tr).
2. AMATO, J.D/LAUBACH, Thomas (1999), “The Value of Interest Rate Smoothing:How the Private Sector Helps the Federal Reserve,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 84/3: 47-64.
3. BALL, Christopher/REYES Javier (2004), “Inflation Targeting or Fear of Floating in Disguise: The Case of Mexico,” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9/1: 49-69.
4. BALL, Laurence (1997), “Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy,” NBER Working Papers, No. 5952: 1- 22.
5. BALL, Laurence (1999), “Policy Rules for Open Economies,” TAYLOR, John (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules (Chigago: University of Chigago Press): 127-153.
6. BALL, Laurence (2002), “Policy Rules and External Shocks,” LOAYZA N. / SCHMIDT, Hebbel K. (eds.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, Central Bank of Chile: 47-62.
7. BARRO, Robert/GORDON, David (1983), “Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics 12/1: 101-121.
8. BATINI, Nicoletta/HALDANE, Andrew (1999), “Forward Looking Rules for Monetary Policy,” TAYLOR, John (eds.), Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: University of Chicago Press): 157-203.

9. BATINI, Nicoletta/HARRISON Richard/MILLARD Stephen (2001), “Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy,” Bank of England Woking Papers, 149: 1-51.
10. BENHABIB, Jess/ SCHMITT GROHE, Stephanie/URIBE, Martin (2003), Backward-Looking Interest Rate Rules, Interest Rate Smoothing and Macroeconomic Instability, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Papers, 03-04: 1-42.
11. BERNANKE, Ben/LAUBACH, S Thomas/MISHKIN, Frederic.S./POSEN, Adam (1999), Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience (Princeton: Princeton University Press).
12. BERNANKE, Ben/MISHKIN, Frederic.S. (1997),. “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11: 97-116.
13. BROUWER, G. D./GILBERT, J. (2005), “Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia,” The Economic Record, 81(253): 124-134.
14. CALDERON, C/HEBBEL, Klaus Schmidt (2003), “Macroeconomic policies and Performance in Latin America,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 27/7: 895-924.
15. CALVO, Guillermo/REINHART, Carmen (2000), Fear of Floating, NBER Working Papers No. 7993: 1- 64.
16. CARLSTROM, Charles/FUERST, Timothy (2000), “Forward Looking Versus Backward Looking Taylor Rules,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Papers, No: 0099.
17. CARLSTROM, Charles/FUERST, Timothy (2002), “Monetary Policy Rules and Stability: Inflation Targeting Versus Price-Level Targeting,” Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
18. CECCHETTI, Stephen (1998), Policy Rules and Targets Federal Reserve Bank of NewYork Economic Policy Review, 2: 1-14.
19. CHRISTIANO, Laurence J. /GUST, Christopher J. (1999), “Comment,” TAYLOR, John (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: University of Chicago Press): 299-316.
20. CLARIDA, Richard/GALI, Jordi/GERDLER, Mark (1997), “How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy,” ROMER, C.D. / ROMER, D.H. (eds.), Reducing Inflation (Chicago: University of Chicago Press): 363-604.
21. CLARIDA, Richard/GALI, Jordi/GERDLER, Mark (1998), “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,” European Economic Review, 42/6: 1033-1067.
22. CLARIDA, Richard/GALI, Jordi/GERDLER, Mark (2000) “Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 65/1: 147-180.
23. CLARIDA, Richard/GALI, Jordi/GERDLER, Mark (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,” Journal of Economic Literature, 37/4: 1661-1707.
24. ERCEG, Christopher/LEVIN, Andrew (2003), “Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 50/4: 915-944.
25. FRIEDMAN, Benjamin (2003), ”The Use and Meaning of Words in Central Banking: Inflation Targeting, Credibility and Transparency,” MIZEN, Paul (ed.), Central Banking, Monetary Theory and Practice (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar): 111-123.
26. FRIEDMAN, Benjamin M/KUTTNER, Kenneth N, (1996), “A Price Target for US Monetary Policy ? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 77-125.
27. GAVIN, William (2004), “Inflation Targeting: Why It Works and How to Make It Work Beter?,” Business Economics, 39/2: 30-37.
28. GERLACH, Schnabel (2000), “The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area,” Economic Letters, 67: 165-171.
29. GIANNONI, Marc/WOODFORD, Michael (2003), “Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules,” NBER Working Papers, No: 9939.
30. GÜRKAYNAK, Refet/LEVIN E./SWANSSON, Eric (2006), “Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence From Long-Term Bond Yield: In the US, UK, and Sweden,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco Working Papers: 2006-09.
31. HANSEN, L. (1982), “Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators,” Econometrica, 50/4: 1029-1054.
32. HETZEL, Robert (2000), “The Taylor Rule: Is It a Useful Guide to Understanding Monetary Policy?,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 86/2: 1-33.
33. HOGAN, Seamus (2000), “Core Inflation as an Indicator in Monetary Policy Rules,” LAHAN, Mahadeva / STERNE, Gabriel (eds.), Monetary Policy Frameworks in a Global Context (London:Routledge): 539-556.
34. JUDD, John/RUDEBUSCH, Glenn (1998), “Taylor’s Rule and the Fed: 1970-1997,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 3: 3-16.
35. KING, Mervyn (1997), “Changes in UK Monetary Policy: Rules and Discretion in Practice,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 39/1: 81-97.
36. KING, Mervyn (2005), Monetary Policy: Practice Ahead of Theory Mais Lecture 2005.
37. KUTTNER, Kenneth (2004), “The Role of Policy Rules in Inflation Targeting,” Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 86/4: 89-111.
38. KYDLAND, Finn/PRESCOTT, Edward (1977), “Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans,” Journal of Political Economy, 85/3: 473-492.
39. LEITEMO, Kai/SODERSTROM, Ulf (2001), “Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty,” Sveriges Riksbank Wp, No:122.
40. LEVIN, Andrew/NATALUCCI, Fabio/PIGER, Jeremy (2004), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 86/4: 51-80.
41. LEVIN, Andrew/WIELAND, Volker/WILLIAMS, John (1999), “Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty,” TAYLOR, John (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: University of Chicago Press): 263-299.
42. LUCAS, Robert (1972), “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Economic Theory, 4/2: 103-124.
43. LUCAS, Robert (1980). “Rules Discretion and the Role of the Economic Advisor,” FISCHER, Stanley (ed.), Rational Expectations and Economic Policy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).
44. McCALLUM, B. (1999), “The Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules,” TAYLOR, J. / WOODFORD, M. (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics (Amsterdam: North-Holland Pbl.): 1484-1529.
45. McCALLUM, Benneth (1988), “Robustness Properties of a Rule for Monetary Policy,” CarnegieRochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 29: 173-204.
46. McCALLUM, Bennett/NELSON, Edward (1999), “Nominal Income Targeting in an Open Economy Optimizing Model,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43/3: 553-578.
47. MISHKIN, Frederic (2004), “The Economics of Money,” Banking and Financial Markets (Boston: Pearson, Addison Wesley).
48. MOHANTY, M.S/KLAU, Marc (2004), Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence, BIS Working Papers, No:149.
49. NELSON, Edward (2000), “UK Monetary Policy 1972-1997: A Guide Using Taylor Rules,” Bank of England Working Papers, No. 120.
50. ORPHANIDES, Athanasios/ WILLIAMS, John (2003), “Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy,” CFS Working Papers, No. 2003-40: 1-43.
51. RUDEBUSCH, Glenn/SVENSSON, Lars (1999), “Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting,” TAYLOR, John (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: University of Chicago Press): 203-246.
52. SACK, Brian (1998), “Uncertainty, Learning, and Gradual Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 34.
53. SVENSSON, Lars E.O. (1997), “Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets,” European Economic Review, 41: 1111-1146.
54. SVENSSON, Lars E.O. (1999), “Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43/3: 607-654.
55. SVENSSON, Lars E.O. (2003), “What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy Through Targeting Rules,” Journal of Economic Literature, 41/2: 426-477.
56. TAYLOR, John (1982), “Establishing Credibility: A Rational Expectations Viewpoint,” American Economic Review, 72/2: 81-85.
57. TAYLOR, John (1999a), Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press).
58. TAYLOR, John (1999b), “The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43/3: 655-679.
59. TAYLOR, John (2000), Using Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies (http://www. Johntayl/)
60. TAYLOR, John (1993), “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice,” Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39: 195-214.
61. VEGA, Marco/WINKELRIED, Diego (2005), “Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behaviour: A Successful Story,” International Journal of Central Banking, 1/3: 153-175.
62. WOODFORD, Michael (2003), Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
63. WOODFORD, Michael (2006), “Rules for Monetary Policy,” NBER Research Summary.
64. WOODFORD, Michael/ROTEMBERG Julio J. (1999), “Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model,” TAYLOR, John (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules (Chicago: University of Chicago Press): 57-126.
65. YAZGAN, Ege/YILMAZKUDAY, Hakan (2007), “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel,” Applied Financial Economics, 17/ 1: 1-8.
66. YILMAZKUDAY, Hakan (2006), “Inflation Targeting Supported By Managed Exchange Rate,” Vanderbilt University Working Papers, No. 05-WG02R: 1-63.